Target Hogs Who Could See Reduced Volume In 2023 Fantasy Football

June 22, 2023

Gladys Tyler evaluates target hogs from the 2022 NFL season that may experience reduced target volume in 2023 and see their fantasy football value decrease as a result.

A target hog is crucial to any fantasy football team whether playing in a standard or PPR league. In PPR, target hogs equal extra points. In standard leagues, they present more opportunities.

However, the movement of players and coaches from year to year poses a problem. How can the target hogs from last year be trusted when they're playing under a new offensive coordinator or with a different quarterback? This article will analyze the target hogs of 2022 and how they correlate to fantasy points.

Five target hogs who can potentially see a reduction in target volume for the 2023 season will be evaluated. It's important not to dismiss them altogether, but fantasy managers need to acknowledge the real probability that the target volume from 2022 will not be reproducible. Remember everything is fluid in the NFL.

Target Hogs of 2022 Fantasy Football

No surprises came from the target hogs of the 2022 season. Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals led everyone in average targets per game (TPG) with 11.2. Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings collected the most targets, he averaged 10.8 TPG with a total of 184 targets. Also in the top three was Davante Adams, the star wide receiver for the Las Vegas Raiders, who averaged 10.6 TPG on 180 total targets.

Surprisingly, teams containing the highest target percentage for a certain position didn’t necessarily have the league-leading target receiver on their team. For instance, the Philadelphia Eagles led the league in targets to wide receivers with 69.5%. However, A.J. Brown only had 145 targets in the 2022 season, ranking 10^th in the NFL. This might not be surprising when factoring in that the Eagles only passed the ball on 50.3% of their plays, resulting in the fourth-fewest passing play percentage in the league.

Everyone knows that Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is the target hog at his position in fantasy football. His 152 targets ranked first among tight ends and sixth among all players last season. However, the Baltimore Ravens led the league in targets to tight ends at 43.9%. Despite this, they only passed on 49.8% of their plays, the third-fewest in the league. Mark Andrews still came away with 113 targets, even though he missed two games and his quarterback, Lamar Jackson, only played in 12 games.

The Los Angeles Chargers played true to form, leading the NFL with 26% of targets to running backs. Austin Ekeler had a total of 127 targets on an 18.9% target share, which resulted in an average of 7.5 TPG. Therefore, it's not surprising that he finished as RB1 in PPR and RB4 in standard fantasy leagues.

Target Hogs and Fantasy Football Scoring

Playing in a PPR league means it is important to be familiar with target hogs. There is a positive correlation between a player's number of targets and their fantasy points. Ekeler led all running backs in PPR leagues, averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Christian McCaffrey was the only other running back to surpass 100 targets. His 108 targets resulted in an RB2 finish and an average of 21 FPPG.

Ja'Marr Chase only played in 12 games last season. However, his 29.3% target share elevated his average FPPG. Even though he had 50 targets less than Justin Jefferson, Chase finished as WR11 in PPR leagues with an average of 18.6 FPPG.

Jefferson led all wide receivers in PPR leagues with 21.7 FPPG on 184 total targets. Although his 10.8 average TPG was second behind Chase, Jefferson played the full season. In standard leagues, Jefferson finished as WR1, but without the points per reception, he averaged only 14.2 FPPG.

Kelce once again dominated the tight end position in both standard and PPR leagues. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points in PPR. This was 5.9 points more than TE2 T.J. Hockenson, who finished the season with 129 targets. In standard leagues, Kelce finished the 2022 season as TE1 with an average of 12.1 FPPG. George Kittle played in 15 games last season and had a total of 86 targets. This resulted in him finishing as TE2 with an average of 9.4 FPPG.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 16.3)

This is not a knock on Davante Adams. He will get his fair share of targets. However, his target ceiling is in danger. It is hard to "get yours" if the ball isn't being thrown frequently. Last season, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had 502 passing attempts. In Adams' two previous two seasons in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, he had 531 and 526 passing attempts, respectively. Jimmy Garoppolo is currently the quarterback in Las Vegas. In the last three seasons, he had 308, 441, and 140 passing attempts, respectively.

Last season, under new head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders ranked 14th in passing attempts with a pass rate of 59.2%. In McDaniels' last season in New England, the Patriots ranked 26th in passing attempts. With McDaniels as his offensive coordinator, quarterback Mac Jones attempted 521 passes, although the team passed on only 54.3% of their offensive plays.

Garoppolo is familiar with McDaniels' offenses as both have spent time in New England. However, it is unlikely that Adams will receive 180 targets and a 32.6% target share with Garoppolo as the quarterback. It is worth noting that Garoppolo's two favorite targets in San Francisco were George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. In 2021, Garoppolo played 14 games with each. Kittle averaged 6.4 TPG, while Samuel averaged 6.8 TPG with a 27.8% target share.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (ADP 26.8)

File this under the "be careful what you wish for" category. Garrett Wilson had a 24.9% target share last season while receiving 147 total passes from Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White, ranking him eighth in targets. The second-leading receiver was tight end Tyler Conklin, who had 87 targets with a 14.7% target share.

This season, the Jets upgraded their quarterback position during free agency by acquiring Aaron Rodgers. This acquisition raises the fantasy ceiling of all New York skill players. The Jets also acquired Allen Lazard, who played 15 games last season with Green Bay and had 100 targets and a 21.1% target share.

The second-most targets from Rodgers last season was a tie between tight end Robert Tonyan and wide receiver Romeo Doubs, both with 67 targets. It is unlikely that Lazard will outperform Wilson. However, having Lazard on the team may lower Wilson's targets this season.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing this season with a new offensive coordinator and a new quarterback under center. They will go from Tom Brady to either Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield. For the purposes of this article, Mayfield gets the nod.

Last season with Brady throwing the ball 751 times, Chris Godwin had a target share of 21.8% and was targeted 142 times in the 15 games he played. The chances of Mayfield throwing the ball 751 times are slim to none. When Mayfield performed well in 2020, he had 486 passing attempts with a 62.8% completion rate. In 2019, Mayfield had his highest number of passing attempts, totaling 534. However, his completion percentage dropped to 59.4.

There is also speculation that Godwin will play more outside the slot this season. Last year, Godwin played 57.6% of his snaps outside of the slot. In 2021, he had 128 targets while playing 57.5% of his snaps outside of the slot. Godwin's lowest target year was in 2017 when he had 55 targets and played 9.1% of his snaps outside of the slot position. There are several factors to be concerned about regarding Godwin's targets. This includes a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback, and a potential change in his position.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (ADP 3.6)

The label of "target hog" for Barkley depends on your perspective. He led the New York Giants with 76 targets last season, averaging 4.5 TPG. While not an exceptionally high number, it was enough to lift him from RB6 in standard leagues to RB5 in PPR leagues. He had a target share of 17.2%. Last season, the Giants' options at wide receiver were very limited. Darius Slayton was their most targeted receiver, finishing the season with 71 total targets and leading the team in 15 games. Richie James followed with just 70 total targets.

During the offseason, the Giants acquired tight end Darren Waller in free agency and signed wide receivers Jamison Crowder, Parris Campbell, and Jeff Smith. They also re-signed receivers Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Sterling Shepard. In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Giants acquired Jalin Hyatt, a wide receiver from the University of Tennessee known for his speed (4.4 40-yard dash). The current wide receiving corps lowers Barkley's target ceiling.

Last season, per Pro Football Focus, quarterback Daniel Jones was seventh in running back target frequency at 19.5%. The addition of viable options in the passing game, both in the slot and deep ball receivers, should reduce the need for Jones to heavily rely on Barkley as his go-to receiver.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP 22.9)

Andrews has been a primary target in Baltimore's passing game, mainly because other options have been so limited. Over the last two seasons, he has led all tight ends in target share. Last season, his target share was 29% and in 2021, he had a target share of 26.6% on 154 targets.

This offseason, Baltimore has made efforts to acquire a decent wide receiver corps to bolster the pass-catching options for Lamar Jackson. They signed Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and acquired Zay Flowers through the 2023 NFL Draft. Rashod Bateman is also returning after missing a significant portion of last season due to injury.

Last season, Bateman was considered the WR1 in Baltimore but was never on the field for more than 66% of the offensive snaps. This is likely to change under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Andrews is still a top-five tight end but with more receivers worthy of targets, there will be fewer to go around.

Jackson's assertions may not be too far off. In 2020, Baltimore ranked 32^nd in passing attempts per game with 25.9 attempts. In 2021, they climbed to ninth place with 35.9 passing attempts per game only to drop to 28^th last season with 28.7 attempts.

Lamar Jackson has historically supported no more than two fantasy-relevant pass-catchers but this is mainly because he hasn't had more than two fantasy-relevant options. With at least three, possibly four, relevant pass-catchers this season, Andrews' targets are expected to decrease.

It's important to consider these factors when evaluating the target hogs from the previous season. While their performance and target volume in 2022 was impressive, changes in the coaching staff, quarterback, offensive system, and the addition of new receiving options can significantly impact their target volume and overall fantasy production in 2023.

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