Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 17)

July 13, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 17 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 17 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! Today we'll take a look at players like Carlos Correa, Rece Hinds, Lane Thomas, Jose Miranda and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Ian Happ and Brenton Doyle were a couple of good ones from last week who continued to hit over this past week.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/10

Carlos Correa (12)

Carlos Correa's incredible season continues and he now owns the league's longest hit streak at 12 games. He now owns a .310-13-47-50-0 line with a .386 wOBA and 154 wRC+ on the season. Five of his 13 home runs have come in the last 11 games, so he's kicked it up a notch in the power department, too. With career-best contact and strikeout rates along with a low chase rate, it seems like he should be able to ride this success into the second half. A barrel rate of 9.3% should buoy the power numbers as well.

CARLOS CORREA GOES BACK 2 BACK ‼️#MNTwins
pic.twitter.com/VqSOeguesn

— Twins Talk (@LetsTalk_Twins) July 10, 2024

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/10

Check out the names on this list. There are some intriguing names here that can help fill out a DFS lineup and could also be worthwhile adds in redraft leagues.

Alejandro Kirk (.533)

Alejandro Kirk is an interesting name. Note for comparison that Kirk only played four games, so the sample size is smaller. He's 8-for-15 (.533) over the past week and could be a name to consider when filling out a DFS lineup while he's hot, as two of his hits were doubles and he was able to collect five RBI.

Julio Rodriguez (.438)

Well, well, well, looky here, a Julio Rodriguez sighting! I mentioned Rodriguez as an xSLG underachiever in my Week 15 Breakout Watch article and perhaps this is the beginning of his turnaround. Showing up on this list is due mostly to a single game where he went 4-for-4, but at least it's a start. As mentioned in that article, Rodriguez has fared better in the second half in his first two seasons. So while this past week won't allay fantasy managers' fears that they made a mistake in drafting him so highly, there are some reasons for optimism.

(Update: Rodriguez went 3-for-3 with a double on Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/10

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Rece Hinds (.688)

Rece Hinds has been known for his big power, but injuries and strikeouts have prevented his ascension to the majors. That is, until now. Hinds hit 23 home runs in 2023 at Double-A and got his strikeouts somewhat under control. In 2024, the strikeouts were back up (38.4%), but the slugger had 13 HRs in just 77 games at Triple-A before he got the call.

458 FEET. GET FAMILIAR WITH HIS GAME.@ReceHinds pic.twitter.com/KZWfEZUAhi

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 10, 2024

The 23-year-old has hit the ground running in the majors, collecting five extra-base hits in his first three games, including two doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He's also stolen a base, something he's been adept at the last couple of seasons in the minors. The former second-round pick has yet to draw a walk and has struck out four times (33.3%), but surely the Reds will take that so long as he keeps on slugging.

(Update: Hinds went 2-for-4 with a double and a stolen base on Thursday)

Tyler Stephenson (.571)

Tyler Stephenson has the benefit of playing his home games in Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park and is enjoying the latest home stand. The 27-year-old has collected a hit in four straight games, going 7-for-17 (.412) over that time and six of the seven hits have gone for extra bases, including four doubles and two home runs. The former first-round draft pick sits just outside the top-12 fantasy catchers but is a viable starter while he's hot. He's available in 85% of Yahoo leagues.

Tyler Stephenson - Cincinnati Reds (8)
pic.twitter.com/GEULTtVzlU

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 11, 2024

(Update: Stephenson went 2-for-5 with two more home runs on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 7/10

Lane Thomas (5)

There are some big names on this list, but the most intriguing is Lane Thomas. The former fifth-round draft pick stole 20 bases last season in 157 games, so this hasn't come out of nowhere; however, with the five bags he's stolen over the past week, he's now set a new career high with 22. His other counting stats are a bit lacking, so he'll need to pick up the pace in the home-run department to match last season's total of 28. He has, however, hit safely in seven of his last eight, going 10-for-33 (.303) over that time.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 7/10, minimum 200 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Bo Bichette (.221 vs. .260)

Bo Bichette has been a big-time disappointment this season, but he is showing up as an underachiever with an xBA 39 points below his actual BA. K% is the same as last season when he hit .306, same with contact rate and chase rate, but the results have been much different. Launch angle is slightly up and hard-hit rate is similar, but he's barreling the ball much less, which is the glaring difference. That, and BABIP. Bichette has never had a BABIP less than .339, but this season it is .265, so if luck is the main culprit, then he could be due for a big rebound.

Bo Bichette and his beautiful swing.

That's it. That's the tweet. pic.twitter.com/dkPvzwf2v4

— Baseball’s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) May 30, 2024

Honorable mention: Corbin Carroll (.211 vs. .245)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 7/10, minimum 200 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Jose Miranda (.325 vs. .287)

We know Jose Miranda went 12-for-12 last week and I made the case for why he could continue to hit. I don't mean to spoil the party, but his hot streak has put him into "overachiever" territory, with an xBA 38 points lower than his actual BA of .325. The 26-year-old has a BABIP of .349, which seems high, although he doesn't have a long career track record to go off. Some of the overachievers who have shown up on this list have fallen hard (i.e. Orlando Arcia and Ezequiel Tovar), but this one could be a slower drift lower and potentially not all that lower.

Also: Michael Busch (.275 vs. .230)

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