Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tylan Wallace, Tanner Hudson

November 13, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 11 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tylan Wallace, Tanner Hudson.

Week 10 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the 10th week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 10. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Derek Carr - QB, New Orleans Saints

Week 10 stats: 16-of-25 for 269 yards and two touchdowns, four carries for 17 yards - overall QB6

I used to play this PC game when I was a teenager where you put a band together. You chose from all these random musicians and then they recorded these songs. Most of the time, you'd put a ragtag group together and the band would sound really, really bad.

That's not a metaphor for the New Orleans Saints. Or maybe it is, but it's not why I brought the game up. I bring it up because one of the songs you can record has this refrain: "feels like we've been here before."

That's my analysis of Derek Carr's strong performance this week: we've been here before. Yes, Carr is capable of good games, but he's also down his top two receivers right now.

Carr has fantasy value. In the right matchup, he has streaming appeal. But this was the first time he's finished better than QB20 since Week 2. On the bright side, he has some plus matchups coming up, but his Week 10 performance was still an illusion.

Verdict: Fiction, but he's a streaming play when he has good matchups

Austin Ekeler - RB, Washington Commanders

Week 10 stats: 13 carries for 44 yards and two touchdowns, one reception for seven yards - overall RB5

Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler has had two pretty strong games in a row, finishing with 83 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 9 against the Giants and then finishing with 51 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers.

Austin Ekeler has 3 TDs in his last 2 games with Brian Robinson Jr. out 👀pic.twitter.com/w9ayFjyxDW

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) November 10, 2024

Notably, Brian Robinson Jr. missed both of those games. With Robinson sidelined, Ekeler had a more clear path to touches as part of a three-headed backfield with Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols. Robinson had dominated the touches before his injury.

If Robinson misses more time, Ekeler is a strong RB2 play, but the issue is that Robinson likely won't be out much longer. He practiced on Tuesday, though he was still limited by his hamstring injury.

The Commanders play the Eagles on Thursday, so the short week could lead to Robinson sitting for one more week. We'll have to monitor the situation to see what happens.

Verdict: Fact until Robinson is back ... which could be this week, so temper expectations

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR, New Orleans Saints

Week 10 stats: three catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR2

As mentioned above, the Saints are without their top two receivers right now. Chris Olave is on IR with a concussion. Rashid Shaheed is done for the year. And you could extend that out to their top three receivers being out, as Bub Means is on IR with an ankle injury. Of course, that depends on you accepting that Means is the team's third-best receiver.

But maybe that job belongs to Marquez Valdes-Scantling? MVS started the season in Buffalo, but the Amari Cooper trade made him expendable. He landed in New Orleans and was a huge part of the team's offense in Week 10, as he caught three passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons on Sunday.

We initially thought Mason Tipton would be the team's best receiver with Olave, Shaheed, and Means out, but he failed to bring in any of his three targets in Week 10. There's a good chance that MVS is the best healthy wideout this Saints team has.

That doesn't mean he's going to have explosive games like this every week, of course. He should maintain a meaningful role, but the fact that he relies so much on speed and the deep-passing game makes him a boom-or-bust option.

Verdict: Fiction, but he's worth rostering

Tylan Wallace - WR, Baltimore Ravens

Week 10 stats: three receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown - overall WR4

We can keep this section of the article relatively short.

Tylan Wallace had a strong game on Thursday against the Bengals, catching three passes for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Tylan Wallace’s first three years in Baltimore: 67 receiving yards total, no TDs

Tylan Wallace just now: 84 yards, one incredible TD pic.twitter.com/RGTwsoYWFF

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) November 8, 2024

And look: it was an impressive touchdown. He broke a tackle, then stiff-armed a couple of guys and was off for an 84-yard score.

The thing is, it wasn't the kind of play that feels replicable. Those kinds of long plays don't grow on trees. And Wallace entered this game with just two targets all season, so the play -- and the overall performance -- has fluke written all over it.

Verdict: Fiction

Tanner Hudson - TE, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 10 stats: six receptions for 42 yards and one touchdown - overall TE4

Cincinnati Bengals tight end Mike Gesicki was set up for a smash week in Week 10, but instead, it was his teammate Tanner Hudson who finished as the overall TE4.

The matchup against the Ravens was the perfect moment for Gesicki to deliver, as Baltimore has hemorrhaged fantasy points to tight ends this season. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and targeted Gesicki nine times, but he only managed four catches for 30 yards.

Of course, the week we’re all in on Mike Gesicki, it’s Tanner Hudson week.

I hate fantasy football.

— Hutchinson Brown (@hutchinsonb_ff) November 8, 2024

Meanwhile, Hudson was targeted seven times, catching six of those for 42 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens did struggle against a tight end. It just happened to be a different one than expected.

It was a strong showing for Hudson, who played a season-high 35% of Cincinnati's snaps and had by far his best game. But the fact remains that he's the No. 2 tight end on this team and the Bengals had a perfect matchup this week.

Verdict: Fiction

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