Every Quarterback With Overall QB1 Upside for Fantasy Football - Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, more

August 16, 2024

Justin looks at every fantasy football QB who can finish as the overall QB1 in 2024. Should you target these fantasy football quarterbacks in all drafts?

The most important position on the football field is quarterback, but that isn't always true about fantasy football. Quarterback is important, but not everyone is clamoring to take the top guy every year.

Part of that is because of the strength of the position around the NFL. You don't have to use a first- or second-round pick to end up with the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy. There are usually a good number of players each year who could lead fantasy football in scoring, making it easier to pick and choose when you go with a QB.

Below are the eight quarterbacks with overall fantasy QB1 upside and the case for each player.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Last season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes saw a dip in his numbers, throwing for a career-low 261.4 yards per game. That was a sizable drop from his league-best 308.8 yards per game in 2022. One of the biggest explanations for the regression is that Mahomes didn't have the same numbers over the top. His intended air yards per pass attempt fell to 6.5, the lowest of his career, due to a combination of defenses guarding the deep ball and Mahomes lacking a go-to weapon in the deep passing game.

While I can't speak to how defenses will guard Mahomes in 2024, we do have a response from Kansas City to that second issue, as the team brought in Marquise Brown to provide a deep target for Mahomes. Although Brown's injury status is unclear, his shoulder does not require surgery, so hopefully, he won't miss too much time. Even if he misses time, rookie speedster Xavier Worthy will provide plenty of downfield speed. After suffering through a year where it felt like every bomb was dropped, we might get to see some of that Mahomes arm strength magic once again in 2024.

Patrick Mahomes has the second-lowest aDOT (6.6) this season. This offense stinks.

— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) December 26, 2023

That alone makes him a candidate to finish as the top fantasy quarterback. In 2022, Mahomes led the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, so if his 2024 version can look close to that 2022 version, Mahomes can deliver some big results.

2023 was also the first year as a starter that Mahomes failed to record a rushing touchdown, though he had a career-high 389 rushing yards. Add a couple of rushing scores into the mix and that's a small but potentially significant boost to his overall numbers.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

I'm not a math expert, but let me try something here. A passing touchdown is worth four points in most formats and a rushing touchdown is worth six points. Six is a bigger number than four, therefore a quarterback who can get you rushing scores is valuable. The math checks out, right?

Lamar Jackson scored five rushing touchdowns in 2023 and added 821 yards on the ground, adding immense fantasy value through that part of his game.

Jackson also ended the year on a strong run, averaging 27.8 fantasy points over his last four games. From Week 14 to Week 17, no quarterback scored more total fantasy points, and it wasn't even close. Jackson had 111.1 in that span. Second was Joe Flacco with 91.7.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Last year's overall QB1 was Buffalo Bills passer Josh Allen, who scored 385.6 total fantasy points and averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game. He threw for 4,306 yards, the fourth year in a row that Allen had over 4,000 passing yards. He also scored an absurd 15 rushing touchdowns.

If Allen maintains that level of production, he'll run away with the overall QB1 mantle again, but there's reason to believe he will take a step back in 2024.

For one, his receiving group took a big hit as his top-2 receivers are now playing elsewhere. As we saw with Patrick Mahomes last year, the lack of a true No. 1 receiver can lead to a drop in production. You can have the best arm in the world, but the guy on the other side of the pass has to catch it.

Likewise, he could see a drop in rushing scores as well. The 15 touchdowns were six more than his previous career high and more than double his 2022 number. It's realistic to think he drops back down to the high single digits.

Still, Allen has proved before he can be the overall QB1, so don't count him out.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts was second in the league in fantasy points per game last season, scoring 15 rushing touchdowns to boost his fantasy scoring.

Now, I don't want to sound like a hypocrite here after what I said about Josh Allen's 15 touchdowns not being sustainable, but I do think Hurts can approach that number again. Sure, it was his career high, but it was also the third season in a row that he scored 10-plus touchdowns on the ground. And with the NFL not banning the Tush Push play, Hurts should continue to see heavy rushing usage near the goal line, though the departure of center Jason Kelce could impact the effectiveness of the play.

Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith putting on a show 🍿 pic.twitter.com/XEwpEk8Dsg

— PFF (@PFF) July 27, 2024

As far as his passing ability goes, Hurts has a solid arm, though there was a notable uptick in his interceptions last season. If he can get that number down from 15 and back into the single digits, then his passing numbers should be good enough for him to challenge for the overall QB1 spot.

C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans

As a rookie, C.J. Stroud was very good, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He also added three rushing touchdowns to the tally. His ability to protect the ball and hit his receivers down the field was incredibly impressive, and now he gets to add another top weapon in Stefon Diggs.

The only thing keeping Stroud from contending for the overall QB1 spot might be play-calling. Despite Stroud being as good as he was, the Texans ranked near the middle of the league in pass rate at 61%, which put the team 14th.

With Stroud not adding a ton of value on the ground, his path to being the overall QB1 is about maintaining his passing efficiency on a larger volume, so the Texans will need to throw the ball closer to a top-5 rate to ensure he gets that volume. The addition of Joe Mixon at running back suggests that the balance may not change much, though.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

The case for Anthony Richardson finishing as the overall QB1 is more speculative than the case for other players, but it's within the realm of possibilities.

Richardson played in just four games as a rookie, completing 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He also added four rushing touchdowns.

#Colts HC Shane Steichen on whether he’ll limit Anthony Richardson’s running:

“Shoot, are you going to limit Steph Curry from shooting three-pointers? Well, that’s one of Anthony’s strengths. So, we’re not gonna get away from that. That’s what he does well.”

Steichen has a 75%… pic.twitter.com/PPvsYk2ZbV

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 25, 2024

For Richardson to finish as the overall QB1, he needs to stay healthy. Then, he needs to keep doing his thing with his legs, as his athleticism makes him dangerous when he gets out and runs.

Those two things are realistic. The third thing he needs, though, is to greatly improve his passing accuracy. Richardson has a rocket for an arm, but it can be tough to hone that rocket. If he comes back from this offseason and can be in the top half of the league in accuracy, he can post monster numbers. But will he be able to do that?

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

The Packers made Jordan Love the highest-paid QB in NFL history after just one season as a starter. He threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns. Love threw 11 interceptions, though none of those came over the final four games. Just one interception came after Week 10.

If Love's ability to not turn the ball over continues in 2024, he has the arm to be among the NFL's most productive quarterbacks. It might take an injury or two from other star QBs for Love to challenge for the overall QB1 spot, but if he continues his progression from 2023, then he's a top-5 fantasy quarterback.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Considering Dak Prescott was the overall QB3 last year, he has to be mentioned here, though he feels like a long shot to hit those numbers this year. CeeDee Lamb is a dominant receiver, but the lack of a high-end second weapon hurts his upside.

Still, Prescott led the NFL in touchdown passes last season with 36, and his 410 completions led the NFL as well. The problem is that those numbers feel like the ceiling for Prescott, and all they netted him was that QB3 finish. His drop in rushing production over the last four years has made him reliant on his arm as far as fantasy scoring goes. So while I felt I had to mention Prescott here, he probably needs a lot of luck (and injuries to other star QBs) to get to the overall QB1 spot. It's possible, but it's not something I'd bet on.

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