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Early 2021 PPR Rankings Analysis - Running Back

It’s always good to comb through the rankings to see how players are being valued. The entire pool of running back is shallow at the top end. At the same time, it can also be considered deep when it comes to speculative assets that could provide value later in the season.

After analyzing the running backs through rankings, ADP, and mock drafts, it’s a good practice to make sure to secure your running back spots early in drafts. Just about everyone in your league is trying to roster as many feature backs as possible. After the first couple of rounds, the list of running backs available starts to get slim.

The rankings that are being referenced are from RotoBaller’s 2021 Expert Consensus Rankings.

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Tier One

The first tier of stud running backs. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley both missed the majority of the 2020 season. They are back to full health and ready to carry the load for their teams. McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in 2019 while averaging 29.32 PPR fantasy points per game. The year prior, in 2018, he was also the RB1, averaging 24.22 fantasy points per game. He’s a consistent fantasy asset who will produce top-shelf results as long as he’s on the field.

Barkley was considered a generational prospect when coming out of college. Injuries have impacted his production during the last two seasons. Before tearing his ACL in 2020, he was considered one of the top running backs in fantasy. Fantasy gamers still hold him in very high regard, but there’s some doubt considering it's been almost a full season since we’ve seen him on the field. He was immaculate during his rookie season in 2018 when he was the RB2, averaging 23.99 fantasy points per game. As a rookie, he ranked third in the league with 768 yards after the catch and ranked third among all running backs with a 21 percent target share.

Dalvin Cook is ranked second overall. He has rushed for back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. The Vikings like to keep him involved in the passing game. Cook has caught 40 passes or more in each of his last three seasons.

From there, we have Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, and Austin Ekeler listed in Tier 1. All of these players are a key focus in their offensive game plans. Almost all of them win in different ways on the field. All of them have the potential to finish the 2021 season.

 

Tier Two

Taylor finished his rookie campaign third in rushing with 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns. He will be the feature back in the Indianapolis offense and will be a candidate to finish the year as the RB1. Marlon Mack could be a potential threat to Taylor’s output. However, in 2020, Taylor led the team with a 29 percent opportunity share. Many are pegging Taylor as a can’t miss fantasy option for 2021 with the potential to finish the season as a top-five back.

 

Tier Three

Cam Akers is usually hovering around the end of the first round of drafts. He is expected to receive a heavy workload this season. We saw him kick it into gear during the end of the season as he owned a 43 percent share of the touches to finish off the season. His usage in the passing game will elevate his floor in PPR leagues.

Chubb might be considered the best all-around rusher in the league. He has excellent vision and runs with enough burst to be a threat when he hits the open field. Chubb had six RB1 weeks and finished his 2020 campaign as the RB11 while missing four games.

Aaron Jones’ fantasy value is tethered to Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers is still on the team this year, then Jones will have a rocket ship on his back. If the Packers part ways with their long-time quarterback, then it could be dark times for Jones in fantasy.

The offense is going to look a lot different for the Washington Football Team with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. The team will be able to sustain drives. We will also see more deep-pass attempts. Gibson will be able to benefit by seeing more goal-line looks. He’s also a key contributor in the passing game. During his rookie season, he caught 36 balls for 247 yards. J.D. McKissic is still on the team and will have a role as another pass-catching option out of the backfield. However, Gibson’s ability to run between the tackles and line up wide as a receiver will make the team want to utilize him more in passing situations.

The Detroit Lions are experiencing a big transition period with a new coaching staff. If the situation was more promising, Swift would be valued as a first-round option. He is a very explosive playmaker who excels in the passing game. Even with him sharing the backfield with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, he still managed to score eight touchdowns during his rookie season. Swift has a lot of upside and has the potential to be one of the best running backs in the league.

James Robinson is valued kind of high here. His value slipped a bit in redraft after the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne. That doesn’t mean he’s not a buy, but it’s better to draft him at cost than at his listed ranking. He's still worth taking a stab at in fantasy for 2021 since he is the incumbent starter who delivered consistent RB1 production last year.

The Bengals are slowly getting better. The team added Ja’Marr Chase in the draft. Joe Burrow experienced a devastating injury last year. He will still have another offseason of development. Mixon’s 2020 was shortened due to injury. We should see him own a large share of the touches out of the backfield. Giovani Bernard is gone and is now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Samaje Perine is a cheap backup option but is not a threat to Mixon’s workload. At his current price tag, Mixon should be considered one of the better values at running back. You’re getting a three-down back at a mid-second round tender.

 

Tier Four

There’s a lot of value in the fourth tier. J.K. Dobbins will be entering his second season. He looked good on a small sample during his rookie year in 2020. We could see him rise as he gets more acclimated to the offense and the NFL game.

Courtesy of Rotoviz

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a major steal in drafts. This time last year, many regarded him as a top-five fantasy running back. Due to his rookie season not living up to expectations, Edwards-Helaire stock took a massive hit, making him one of the better values in fantasy football. Last year, he saw a ten percent or higher target share in eight of his games. This will be his first full offseason with the team. We should see him get more acclimated in the offense.

Jalen Hurts now has the keys to the car in Philadelphia. His ability to pick up yards on the ground running the football will open things up for the running backs. It’s put-up or shut-up time for Sanders. If he lives up to his potential, then he could finish the year as an RB1. The downside is that we could get what we’ve received from him in fantasy the past few seasons, which was hollow optimism and injuries.

Chris Carson is the workhorse back for Seattle. He gets used in the passing game. After missing four games in 2020, he still managed to finish as the RB20 in PPR. He also provided five RB1 weeks. We are seeing him being drafted as one of the last three-down backs to come off the boards in drafts with a 33.8 average draft position.

 

Tier Five

David Montgomery was on a roll at the end of the season with five straight RB1 weeks to close out the fantasy season. This led to an RB4 finish. Even with the tremendous surge, we are still seeing Montgomery fall to the third round of drafts, making him a value at cost. There are still some red flags that fantasy managers need to know. The team doesn’t have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They will be working with the combination of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields which could generate an interesting transition process.

The Browns had a 48 percent run rate in 2020. They want to run the ball. Even with Nick Chubb seeing a large share of touches out of the backfield, Hunt is still viable in fantasy. If something were to happen to Chubb, then Hunt's fantasy value would dramatically increase. While playing in a timeshare, he still finished the 2020 season as the RB10 with three RB1 weeks and six RB2 weeks.

Jacobs is a very underrated running back who is playing in a weird situation. The team added Kenyan Drake this offseason. The two will be competing for touches. He had five RB1 weeks in 2020 while leading the team with a 35 percent opportunity share. His touch share could be in jeopardy this year as it appears the team is leaning more into a committee approach with him and Drake sharing the load.

Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin, and Raheem Mostert are all in ambiguous situations that could lead to heavy production. Davis is tethered to Atlanta’s high-volume offense. Edmonds is tethered to Kyler Murray and one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Gaskin has the potential to be the lead back for the Dolphins, he had eight weeks where he was an RB2 or better.



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