RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 on 1/18/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC’s first pay-per-view event of the year happens on Saturday, January 18, at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. This will be the promotion's third visit to Inglewood and first since UFC 232 in December 2018. UFC 311 features two title fights, as the highly anticipated title fight rematch between defending lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan is set to take place this weekend as the main event of UFC 311, with Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov being in the co-main event.
To open up the main card, we have a middleweight fight between fan favorite Kevin Holland and former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder. Also on the main card, two UFC lightweight veterans, Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano, are set to duke it out along with the former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, who are scheduled for a three-round bout.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 on 1/18/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Islam Makhachev, $9,400 - vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan are set to fight for a second time in the main event of this Saturday's stacked UFC 311 card at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. They first fought at UFC Fight Night 149's co-main event in Saint Petersburg, Russia, in April 2019. Makhachev got the nod during their first encounter, winning a hard-fought unanimous decision.
FOR LIGHTWEIGHT GOLD 🏆🏆@MAKHACHEVMMA vs @ArmanUFC
[ #UFC311 | Live SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/kq3qHclG4y
— UFC (@ufc) January 17, 2025
Makhachev is on a 14-fight win streak, winning nine straight after beating Tsarukyan in 2019. He captured the vacant UFC lightweight title in October 2022, defeating former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira by second-round submission.
Since then, Makhachev had three title defenses, two against former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and one against former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. He has earned bonus awards for each of his UFC title fights.
Tsarukyan looks to avenge his loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut. Following the loss to Makhachev in his UFC debut, Tsarukyan has been on a tear, going 9-1, and is on a four-fight win streak. Included in that stretch are victories over the likes of Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Joel Alvarez, Beneil Dariush, and most recently, Oliveira. The last time Tsarukyan suffered a loss was in 2022 to Mateusz Gamrot via unanimous decision.
Makhachev enters this fight as the favorite with an MMA record of 26-1 and is 15-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. Makhachev's striking defense is 61% and he absorbs 1.54 strikes per minute. His grappling has been elite, averaging 3.19 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Makhachev's takedown defense is 90% and his takedown accuracy is 53%.
Tsarukyan enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-3 and 9-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Tsarukyan absorbs 1.84 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has also been great, averaging 3.25 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown defense of 75%.
There are questions about his cardio vs. Makhachev’s. Tsarukyan has only ever seen a fight go past three rounds once in his UFC career, and in that fight against Gamrot, he started to gas out. He was tired in the third round against former champion Oliveira as well.
He is one of the few fighters in the world with the ability to match Makhachev's grappling but I don't think that's going to be enough. Tsarukyan hasn't come up against the consistent level of competition that Makhachev has, nor has he improved as much as the champion.
They have both improved since their first meeting and I do not doubt that Tsarukyan will give Makhachev a tough fight, but Makhachev remains the better all-around competitor. My prediction is that Makhachev is going to win via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Umar Nurmagomedov, $9,200 - vs. Merab Dvalishvili
This weekend, bantamweights Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov are scheduled for a five-round bout in the co-main event of UFC 311. In his last bout at UFC 306 in September 2024, Dvalishvili became bantamweight champion by dominating Sean O'Malley and defeating him by unanimous decision while Nurmagomedov earned his title shot by extending his win streak to 18 by defeating Cory Sandhagen via unanimous decision.
Dvalishvili signed with the UFC in 2017 and has gone 11-2 since then. Interestingly enough, Dvalishvili lost his first two UFC fights, falling to Frankie Saenz by decision and Ricky Simon via submission.
On his way to winning a title, Dvalishvili defeated former champions like Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, and most recently, O'Malley. Dvalishvili holds the record for the longest winning streak in the division at 10, beating Sterling’s mark of nine wins in a row.
Nurmagomedov joined the UFC in January 2021 with a submission win over Sergey Morozov. Since that win, he has won five consecutive fights and has most recently defeated former interim UFC title challenger Cory Sandhagen in a five-round main event scrap in August. Nurmagomedov is undefeated with 18 wins; however, Sandhagen is the only top-10 opponent Nurmagomedov has faced en route to getting a title shot.
Dvalishvili enters this fight as the underdog with an MMA record of 18-4 and a UFC record of 11-2. He is averaging 4.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili's striking defense is 56% and he's absorbing 2.31 strikes per minute. His grappling is elite, averaging 6.09 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 80%.
Nurmagomedov enters this fight as the favorite with a UFC record of 6-0. He is averaging 4.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. Nurmagomedov absorbs 1.36 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 100% and his takedown accuracy is 50%.
Dvalishvili is known for his wrestling and he arguably has the best cardio in the UFC. Nurmagomedov should have the edge when it comes to striking. He is a more complete fighter than Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili's takedown defense is great but he has been taken down by Cody Stamann and former champions Yan and Cejudo.
In my opinion, Nurmagomedov's wrestling is just on another level. Along with his striking and jiu-jitsu, Nurmagomedov has more tools in his arsenal than Dvalishvili. My prediction is that Nurmagomedov wins this either by submission or via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Renato Moicano, $8,700 - vs. Beneil Dariush
The second fight on the main card features a three-round lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano. Dariush last competed at UFC on ESPN 52, where he was defeated by Arman Tsarukyan via first-round knockout. In contrast, Moicano last competed in Paris, where he defeated Benoit Saint Denis via second-round TKO, extending his win streak.
Dariush is looking to get back in the win column after suffering back-to-back knockout losses to Tsarukyan and Oliveira. Before that, Dariush won eight straight from November 2018 to October 2022. The most significant win during Dariush’s impressive run was his UFC 280 decision win over Mateusz Gamrot. After suffering back-to-back knockout losses, Dariush took one year to recover from the losses and will return in a must-win situation.
In contrast, Moicano has been on a roll. The former featherweight contender has established himself as one of the best fighters in the lightweight division, picking up four straight wins, two by TKO, one by submission, and one by unanimous decision.
His most recent victory was by far his most impressive to date as the fight ended after the second round after Moicano left Saint Denis’ face bloody and swollen. In his last four fights, Moicano has defeated Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Saint Denis.
Dariush enters this fight as the underdog with an MMA record of 22-6-1 and is 16-6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Dariush absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. In regards to his grappling, Dariush is averaging 1.90 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 90%.
Moicano enters this fight as the favorite with an MMA record of 20-5-1 and is 12-5 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Moicano is absorbing 3.60 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. When it comes to his grappling, Moicano is averaging 1.87 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 72%.
Had this fight been booked before Dariush’s two recent losses, he would have likely have been the betting favorite. Unfortunately for Dariush, in those two losses, he suffered a devastating knockout that brought his chin into question.
Dariush said that he's going to retire if he loses his third fight in a row. In contrast, Moicano has the momentum behind him. Moicano’s path to victory with the least resistance would be on the feet. For my prediction, I'm picking Moicano to get the win via TKO.
