Day 1 NFL Free Agency Recap: Winners, Losers For Fantasy Football

March 12, 2025

John recaps the winners and losers from Day 1 of NFL free agency in 2025 for fantasy football. Which players are winners and which are losers from the first day of free agency for the 2025 NFL offseason?

The NFL free agency period in the 2025 NFL offseason has just gotten under way, and it hasn't taken long for a number of teams to make big, important moves to strengthen their rosters, create more cap space, or offload contracts they aren't interested in.

Of course, it's never good to crown a team as the offseason "Super Bowl winners" because we never know how their next season will turn out. But sometimes, the upgrades a club makes are so obvious that they're noteworthy, and it's clear to many that certain players on their team will benefit massively.

There are many situations in which we should expect players, with much better pieces around them, to have better performances in the subsequent season. So let's dive into the biggest winners and losers of the NFL free agency period so far with these ideas in mind!

Massive Winner: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

The first big trade of the 2025 NFL offseason featured the Washington Commanders trading a fifth-round pick for wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. This was a fantastic move for the Commanders for many reasons. The first is that they had no other good pass-catchers besides WR Terry McLaurin last season, as a 34-year-old tight end Zach Ertz being your team's second-best receiver is not a good idea. Samuel should still have plenty of gas left in the tank for at least one more year, and in a weak WR class coming up in the 2025 NFL Draft, he's a great piece to add at least as a stop-gap until the Commies can get a longer-term answer.

Deebo Samuel’s Most Insane Plays as a 49er!

Thank you Deebo ❤️#49ers #DeeboSamuel pic.twitter.com/3pjaKvUV8K

— Chris (@NinerChriss) March 3, 2025

I don't know if we'll see prime Samuel again, but he went from a great offense to another great offense headed by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who's staying with the team for at least another season. Kingsbury played a large part in the Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign Daniels put on, and with this addition, No. 5 could have an even bigger year upcoming.

WRs Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Jamison Crowder all failed to distinguish themselves among each other. Brown (Dyami) is now gone, and it remains to be seen if McCaffrey can develop into an impact player, but it seems unlikely. Samuel presents an immediate upgrade over any and all of them now.

The Commanders second-biggest issue on offense was the offensive line. Daniels was a wizard at escaping pressure and using his legs to threaten defenses, which helped reduce the impact of opposing pass-rushers, as they were forced to account for his mobility. That same mobility allowed for better separation among his receivers, because the linebackers needed to cheat up in preparation for JD to run the ball.

TRADE: Texans trading LT Laremy Tunsil and a fourth-round pick to the Commanders for second, third and fourth-round picks. (via @Rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/eL6YaAZdCt

— NFL (@NFL) March 10, 2025

Washington clearly knows it needs to try to make a few runs after surprisingly making the NFC Championship game last season. They made an immediate, and huge, upgrade at the left tackle position by trading for former Houston Texans LT Laremy Tunsil (ironically his initials, too). Tunsil is one of the best pass-protecting offensive tackles in the league, and he will be critical to keeping Daniels' blind side more clean.

It will also help backup LT Brandon Coleman develop, so in case Tunsil gets hurt, they're probably fine, for the most part. But Tunsil will likely open up the playbook even more, allowing the OROY more time in the pocket to wait for his receivers to get open and for plays to break down. We've already seen him do very well improvisationally.

Jayden Daniels wins MVP this year

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 10, 2025

Daniels had a fantastic offseason after a magnificent rookie year, yet it seems that not enough are paying attention to how terrible his receiving corps was outside of McLaurin last year. Ertz seems to have a little life left in him, and I'd still like the team to draft a WR in the third round (Tez Johnson please), but the additions of Samuel and Tunsil should markedly improve and already good offense.

Big Winner: Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams

After a weird season in which he showed little effort with the Las Vegas Raiders, was traded to the New York Jets, took a few games to get back on track, and had a few nice efforts despite the poor play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Adams immediately gets a huge upgrade being sent to the Los Angeles Rams. He'll now play alongside WR Puka Nacua, who will draw a ton of coverage away from him, making coverage assignments for opposing defenses a nightmare.

Wide receiver YPRR vs zone and man coverage in 2024

Puka Nacua is still on top against zone (by a lot) and ranks 7th versus man pic.twitter.com/n5ew2EhkaY

— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) January 27, 2025

Adams has been one of the best WRs against man coverage in the NFL in his career. This will blend perfectly with Nacua's skillset. The standout second-year pro was elite against man coverage, posting a top-10 yard per route run rate against the coverage, but he was the best against zone by a wide margin. No one seems to shred zone coverages better than Nacua, who's been historic at it.

Adams' route-running is renowned across the league as being elite, and he has long highlight reels of him simply running some of the best routes ever run on a football field. It stands to reason that he was highly successful with a variety of routes, as he's not only mastered each one, but added a ton of nuance and intelligence to them that makes them nearly impossible to defend.

Davante Adams’ success by route last season looks like one of the best among free agent wide receivers (via @MattHarmon_BYB).

His 85.7% success rate on digs is a fantastic fit for the Rams’ offense. https://t.co/5g58AVieOp pic.twitter.com/dUPNnBBSTQ

— Wyatt Miller (@wymill07) March 10, 2025

And he'll have quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball. Despite a season filled with injuries to the offensive line and his receivers, Stafford nearly led the Rams to knocking off the eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. So he has plenty of good play ahead of him. Adams now is in a much better situation, over being thrown to by the likes of QBs Gardner Minshew and the aforementioned Rodgers.

Adams will turn 33 in late December, so he may only have one or two good years left. He was signed to a two-year deal, and it's hard to think of a better team for him to spend his twilight years with. His athleticism could take a hit compared to last year, but his game has never been winning with pure speed or explosiveness, but extremely quick changes in direction, using leverage, and other subtle skills.

17+ Minutes of Davante Adams Route Running
No particular order of clips.

Personally, my favorite wideout to study. pic.twitter.com/q2juKyAWNh

— Mike Vannucci (@WRCoachVannucci) August 13, 2024

Adams' 2023 season featured some of his finest work, and not a lot of him winning with pure speed. Even on his vertical-breaking routes, he won consistently by getting defensive backs off balance and putting them in a blender. I expect more of that in 2024, and a much better Rams offense. Hopefully one that passes the ball more and doesn't give RB Kyren Williams 30 carries to take for <4 yards per carry and to fumble the game away in the playoffs again.

Winner: Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford, in the waning years of his career, gets a big upgrade over a washed and oft-injured Cooper Kupp. There are many that think that Kupp still has plenty left in the tank, but his 2024 tape shows otherwise. He's simply not able to separate from coverage like he used to, and a lot of his twitchiness and short-area quickness is gone now, likely in large part due to his long and extremely concerning injury history.

Stafford now gets one of the best route-runners in the league back. I detailed above how Adams and Nacua's skillsets complement each others magnificently. It would be nice to have a burner somewhere on the field, but Stafford hasn't had a WR with elite speed that's a big part of the offense since WR Calvin Johnson tore up the turf back in Detroit. That was a long time ago.

Davante Adams and Puka Nacua on the Rams this season pic.twitter.com/fa2yL2gaIc

— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook) March 9, 2025

I firmly believe a lot of the unnecessary Stafford hate will subside next year. He's been criticized a lot for his performance this season, as if he hasn't had to deal with a terrible offensive line that was hit with numerous injuries and a stretch with wide receiver Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington as his two best pass-catching options. A better, healthier OL and (hopefully) healthy and much better receivers for a full season will do him a lot of good.

Loser: DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

It's hard to be excited about a wide receiver in an offense commanded by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. I, for one, have had zero interest in ever drafting Steelers wide receivers in fantasy football ever since WR Antonio Brown left the team, and negative interest after the departure of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who massively elevated his WRs in fantasy football.

TRADE: Seahawks trading DK Metcalf to the Steelers for a 2025 second-round pick.

Metcalf is signing a five-year, $150 million contract with Pittsburgh. (via @tompelissero, @rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/fefRvz59Ud

— NFL (@NFL) March 9, 2025

Just to be clear here, I don't really care who the team gets at quarterback. They probably won't be drafting any of Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward, or Jaxson Dart. I really like Dart, so that might change things, but it wouldn't be a great landing spot for him anyway. Even if the Steelers sign former New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Smith's offenses never utilize their WRs to their full potential. And with the team letting go of RB Najee Harris, I have a strong suspicion they'll spend a premium draft pick on a running back.

Arthur Smith's 2nd half game plan was simple:

Run the damn ball. @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/ktfCIpj0g6

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 4, 2022

That should mean more of the same old thing. The Steelers stick to their plans of running the ball as much as possible, using the passing game as a backup plan (as bad as that sounds), and all their receivers suck for fantasy compared to where they were drafted. That's the most likely scenario. I'm also not sure what they would expect to happen to Rodgers, who still tries to run around and play like he's 25 years old, behind the mediocre to bad offensive line Pittsburgh put together last season.

DK & Pickens to Arthur Smith when he calls 40 run plays for 38 yards pic.twitter.com/uY83eh6P8q

— Tyler Harris (@TyJHarris) March 9, 2025

Smith's Steelers ran the ball the fifth-most in the league last year, and it really should be the second-most, since three teams above them on that list, the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills, all had hyper-mobile young quarterbacks that are some of the best rushing QBs in the league. Pittsburgh had a few games with signal-caller Justin Fields starting, but for most of the season, it was Wilson.

Fantasy managers will fume and seethe when they hear the first sound bite of Smith praising Metcalf and his other receivers for "contributing to the game in other ways" or something like that. Basically as run-blockers. Smith is not a good pairing for Metcalf, and neither will be any other QB they get, unless the Steelers decide to sign QB Jameis Winston, which I seriously doubt will happen.

Massive Loser: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

The first two words of the title of this section describe Pickens both as a person and from a fantasy football perspective. I suspect we might see more of his insane meltdowns on the field, legendary crash outs that have secured Pickens' reputation as one of the biggest diva WRs in the sport.

Pickens will now have serious target competition the likes he's never seen before, though he did play one (and a half) seasons with WR Diontae Johnson taking plenty of targets away from him. But Pickens showed signs of discontent even last year, when his biggest competition for looks on passes were wideout Calvin Austin III and tight end Pat Freiermuth.

Jameis Winston, DK Metcalf and George Pickens in the same offense pic.twitter.com/Ou4GP4HS7W

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 12, 2025

Much of what I said in the above section applies here, but with the caveat that for Pickens, there are two new major issues. One is that he was reportedly contemplating a "hold-in", where he refuses to participate in team activities in the offseason or even possibly eschews regular season games in favor of a new contract. The second is that he's now the WR2 of his offense, and that could make him even more indignant. There is really only one way this works out in my mind, and that's if the Steelers get Winston.

Instead, they're pushing for Rodgers, who will turn 42 in early December. His body simply can't handle NFL beatings any more, his arm isn't what it used to be, and he just authored a complete disaster with the Jets, despite being coddled by the team getting him WR Allen Lazard and later Davante Adams. He still couldn't put it together. It should be time for him to hang it up, but he wants some more fat paychecks. Who could blame him.

🚨🚨🚨THREAD… 🧵🧵🧵

15 TIMES WHEN #STEELERS WIDE RECEIVERS GEORGE PICKENS AND DK METCALF CRASHED OUT ON THE FOOTBALL FIELD.

1) PICKENS FROM THE TOP ROPE ON A DEFENDER

ONE OF THE GREATEST THREADS OF ALL-TIME.

😭😭😭pic.twitter.com/5tJmrcMT6q

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) March 10, 2025

I'm excited to watch the two biggest crash-out artists of all time, though!

Somehow Both A Loser And Winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

No more DK Metcalf to compete with for targets. But he lost QB Geno Smith and got QB Sam Darnold instead, who's awful under pressure. The Seahawks have a terrible offensive line. I officially don't know what to think, so rather than do a deep dive here, I'll just leave it at that. The Seahawks will obviously make more moves later, and who they select in the 2025 NFL Draft will be crucial. Maybe then I'll have a better idea what to believe.

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