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Corey Davis's Fantasy Value Is Here To Stay

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis is finally enjoying some semblance of a breakout and it has been long overdue. The former fifth-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft has had a tumultuous start to his career with injuries, a lack of targets, and generally disappointing performances marring his real-life and fantasy value.

Davis's fifth-year option on his rookie contract was not picked up, leaving him a free agent after the 2020 season. It is in his best interest to perform as well as possible every year, but particularly, this year. Contract-year narratives are a tad overblown but there is an added sense of urgency and pressure to perform for players knowing that their careers are not guaranteed a few months ahead. Football is a brutal sport and every player needs to take care of themselves meticulously to navigate the confines of a 16-game season.

This piece is a follow up to my offseason article regarding Davis and why we should buy-in just once more. You can check that out here.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Consistency Finally Here?

Davis's fatal flaw is a lack of consistency. Through two games, he has put up 13 targets, 10 receptions, 137 yards and a TD (76.9% catch rate, 10.5 yards-per-target). Not particularly eye-popping but he has scored over 10 PPR points in each game which is something to keep an eye on. So often, we witness a game in which he looks to have broken out and the next game he falls flat.

Now, this article by no means intends that Davis is a superstar, The point is, with the caveat of health, Davis is fantasy-viable and an option to slide into our WR2 and/or FLEX spots from here on out, particularly with A.J. Brown out of commission with a lower-body bone bruise.

Notice below, some important numbers to note: his catch rate and yards-per-target have gone up each season of his career. He showed a solid rapport with current QB Ryan Tannehill in 2019 prior to injuring his hamstring and now, fully healthy, he seems to have re-kindled that relationship.

Corey Davis has graded out as the seventh-best WR in the NFL through two games and while this small sample is lofty in projecting his rest-of-season, we can rest assured knowing that what we have seen early on is not a result of flukey outcomes.

Also, upon A.J. Brown's return from injury, it is very likely that Davis returns to receiving secondary attention from defenses while Brown draws the primary focus of DBs. Davis might not always have the upper-hand in these matchups but he will have a marginal boost in seeing weaker coverage by the CB2 rather than the CB1 more often than not. Over the next few weeks, Davis has some excellent matchups in Minnesota and Houston along with some tougher ones with Pittsburgh and Buffalo. A.J. Brown should return by Week 5 to attract shutdown cornerback Tre'Davious White away from Davis.

For now, while Brown is out, Davis may have more difficult matchups, but that is made up for by the increase in targets allocated towards him. The Titans are extremely thin at receiver and need one or both of Davis/Brown to take on a significant chunk of the team's target share, even with the team more skewed towards the run.

Davis's athletic profile and build fits the mold of a WR1, however, he should remain the WR2 on his own team but could very well be productive for the rest of the season. Buy the new and improved Corey Davis as a true fantasy asset you can trust most weeks.



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