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Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has lost his starting job to Jalen Hurts after a rough 2020 season. Dom Petrillo evaluates Wentz's dynasty value in fantasy football leagues to decide if he is a QB to buy-low or sell.
There's no two ways around it, Carson Wentz has had a terrible season. Heading into Week 14, at the end of the fantasy regular season, he leads the NFL in interceptions and was just replaced in the lineup with rookie Jalen Hurts.
While much of this was not his fault, a lot of it was. The offensive line struggles and injuries to surrounding cast can not be blamed for everything. Ultimately, the quarterback's job is to keep the offense moving and it wasn't happening, so Doug Peterson had no choice but to make a move. Wentz isn't starting for the Eagles for the time being, so does that mean his fantasy football value is shot even in dynasty leagues? To some extent, yes, but maybe not as much as you might think.
All moves have corresponding moves. The switch to Hurts could spur a departure by Wentz from Philadelphia but it's doesn't guarantee his time in Philly is over, especially with that contract. So, let us go to the table and find out what is most likely to happen and how this will determine his value for the coming years.
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The Stats
Of course, the on-field stats look terrible this season. Nothing has looked good in Philadelphia this season, to be honest. But Wentz is simply having a terrible season. His 15 interceptions lead the NFL and his 21.9% Bad Throw percentage is second only to Drew Lock. Having this matched with only 16 TD makes it even worse.
It's easy to scapegoat the offensive line. This is a unit that lost Andre Dillard in the preseason and followed this up by losing All-Pro Lane Johnson for most of the season before he just gave up on the year and had ankle surgery. Brandon Brooks didn't play a snap in 2020 and the latest blow came when Jason Peters was put on IR after Week 13 after missing several games.
From Christian McCaffrey to Saquon Barkley and Joe Burrow to Marlon Mack, injuries are tragic. But they happen and teams evolve past them. Take the Saints for instance. They lost Drew Brees to a multitude of fractured ribs and have gone undefeated under Teysom Hill. The same can be said for them last season with Teddy Bridgewater.
Coaching is also an issue for the Eagles. Doug Peterson gets a lot of leeway due to winning the Super Bowl after the 2017 season, which was the best season of Carson Wentz’s career. Since then, the team has gotten worse and worse. This is due to the loss of multiple assistant coaches, mainly Frank Reich. He was the engine who ran the offense. Without him, the identity of the organization has struggled to find a steady path forward.
Wentz is seemingly skittish in the pocket. He is holding the ball far too long and thus is taking sacks he knows he cannot be taking. This is limiting the amount of usage Miles Sanders can get and this is the real failure of the offense.
With 2,620 passing yards this season, Wentz has not regressed to the level of a game manager. He is getting close though. 218 yards per game is a far cry from the 253 yards he was averaging coming into this season. It's not enough to get the job done for fantasy leagues and now without a starting job, his value is plummeting quickly.
What to Expect for the Future?
Doug Pederson may be on his way out. With this in mind, it is difficult to know what Wentz is going to do next year and beyond. One thing is relatively certain though. He will still be in Philadelphia. Whether this is as the starter or competing at his position, his contract is not viable to be traded, especially based on his recent performance.
According to Sportrac.com, with the contract given him in 2018, Wentz will have a cap hit of $59 million for Philadelphia next season in dead cap money. This number drops to $24 million in 2022 when there is a potential out.
For this reason alone, the Eagles will be forced to keep him, even if they do not want to. If and when a new coach comes in, it will certainly be made clear that they will need to work with Wentz for the time being. If Philadelphia gets more young (and healthy) receivers in the fold, Wentz is still a good enough QB to have a resurgence. This is the likely outcome.
Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson will be gone. Their contracts are unretainable on a team already projected to be massively over the 2021 salary cap. Impending free agent Zach Ertz could also be on his way out. This means a new crop of weapons next season to go along with their new coaching staff. Could this mean Will Fuller or Kenny Golladay? Likely not. But if they finally add the correct pieces in the draft like D.K. Metcalf and Justin Jefferson to complement their actual pick in Jalen Reagor, they will be back amongst the NFC hierarchy.
So Now What?
So Wentz has a path to redemption in Philadelphia but what do dynasty managers do in the meantime?
We know Carson Wentz is likely back in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future. This could be under a new coach and with new weapons. His ability has not diminished, but his confidence has. A new regime and a new philosophy could be exactly what he needs to thrive once again.
In single-QB formats, Wentz moves to a borderline starting option in 2021. At 28 starting next season, he is young. As an MVP candidate in 2017, we know the talent is also there. This means he is not someone to shy away from. Instead, you may want to try to acquire him on the cheap.
In two-QB or Superflex formats, he is most definitely an option. Despite his struggles, there are not 24 other QB you would rather start on a weekly basis. Although the discussion of him against the likes of Dak Prescott are on the back burner for now, he is still in the conversation above the likes of Drew Lock or Sam Darnold. And they are still starters.
Carson Wentz is a difficult case. Talent mixed with a lack of confidence is hard to figure out. Some players can make it through, and others cannot. If you have him, you should keep him. You are not likely to get much in a trade and thus he is not worth trading. If you have someone in your league who wants to rid themselves of the headache, make an offer and see if the manager bites.
This is the most exciting time of the dynasty season. Moves are made and rosters are built for the next season. Carson Wentz is one of those players that rebuilding franchises might want to target now when his value could be at an all-time low.
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