January 3, 2018

Milos Zvekic's buy low, sell high trade advice for Week 12 of fantasy NBA. His buy/hold/sell recommendations for Dario Saric and Eric Gordon in fantasy basketball leagues.

Hello our dear readers and welcome to our Week 12 fantasy basketball buy low and sell high column here at RotoBaller. Today, we are looking at a young guy who is at the top of his game at the moment. He's had some luck with his teammates being injured and playing some of his best ball so far in his NBA career. Will he be able to keep it up when his team is healthy?

On the other hand we have a veteran who has been playing quite well, and has done a great job of staying healthy, but is in line for a larger role for the next couple of weeks. Will he be able to step up for his team? Will he provide his fantasy owners with the production they're expecting from such a sharp-shooter?

Here's the verdict on Dario Saric from the Philadelphia 76ers and Eric Gordon from the Houston Rockets.

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 12

Are You for Real, Dario Saric?

First of all, lets give credit where credit is due. Dario Saric is one of the best young players in the NBA. He is the future of the 76ers and of Croatian basketball. He finished in the top 3 rookies last season and the 12th pick of the 2014 draft is lighting it up big time recently. In the last two weeks Dario has averaged 19.5 PTS with 2.7 3PM on 53.2 FG% and 90.5 FT%, 6.8 REB, 4.8 AST, 1.2 STL, 0.5 BLK and 2.8 TO in 34 minutes per game. That is good enough for top-15 or top-20 value, depending on your league settings.

Now Dario is extremely talented. He is a well-rounded player who can play in almost any position and contribute in all the statistical categories. But he's just not this good. At least not yet. In his rookie season he hit his shots at a 41.1% clip from the field and 78.2% from the line. And this season, even with such a surge coming recently, he is still at just 44.3 FG%, 1.8 3PM, 2.7 REB and 0.7 STL, so it's doubtfull he can sustain this level for too long.

Furthermore, four guys who have the highest usage percentage this season (counting all players who played more than two games for the team) in Philly are Joel Embiid (33.9%), Ben Simmons (23.3%), Markelle Fultz (20.6%) and J.J. Redick (20.4%). Fultz has been out since early on in the season and Embiid and Redick missed two games apiece out of the last six in the previous 14 days. The absence of three out of four biggest ball hoggers surely helped Saric see increased offensive touches and opportunity.

Now Embiid is dealing with a sprained right hand, and while the X-rays are negative, he is still going to miss a few games, and with him being so injury prone and such an important part of the 76ers future, they likely won't rush him back. Fultz is nearing his return to the court, but is still at least a few games away, so Saric should hold on to solid, top-30 value in the short term. And even when Philly is in full health, he is likely to return somewhere near the top-50 to top-75 region.

If you need Saric's short term potential (of course talking only in redraft leagues), or you like the odds that he remains as good as he is at the moment, by all means, keep him. He's a great player and I like him, his versatility and his work ethic very much. On the other hand, if you are able to acquire a legitimate top-30 player, currently down on his luck, like C.J. McCollum, Kemba Walker, or Myles Turner in exchange for Saric, I would definitely advise you go ahead and make that deal official.

Baller Move: Sell high

Time to Panic on Eric Gordon?

Eric Gordon isn't really a textbook "buy low" candidate. He isn't exactly playing worse recently compared to the start of the season. He isn't doing worse this season compared to some of his previous years. But he is a "buy low" candidate as he is about to step into a much larger role left vacant with the Rockets Superstar James Harden set to miss 2+ weeks with a partially teared hamstring.

So far this season, Gordon is averaging 19.4 points with 3.2 threes on 42.1% from the field and 83.3% from the charity stripe, 2.0 boards, 2.0 dimes, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.3 turnovers in over 32 minutes a game. With The Beard out, Gordon has the golden opportunity to shine even brighter.

Harden leads the league in usage rate with 36.0%. All that will have to be redistributed to the rest of the team, and with Gordon one of the biggest offensive weapons at Houston's disposal, you can bet they're going to use him. And with the Mike D'Antoni-lead Rockets ranked first in offensive rating and in three point percentage, we should see Gordon thrive in such an environment with his increased offensive touches and shots.

If you could use Gordon's probable surge for the next couple of weeks, and the owner holding him isn't as big a fan, or doesn't think Harden's absence will give Gordon enough opportunity, you would be wise to try and obtain his services. If an offer of a guy like J.J. Redick, Dirk Nowitzki, or Zach Randolph would do the trick, I would definitely pull the trigger on that trade.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low

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