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Buy, Sell, or Hold: Beat the Trade Deadline


Usually, in this column, we take a look at a player who is in great form but is unlikely to sustain it and suggest you sell the s*** out of him before he sees a drop-off, and we find a guy who is playing poorly, but will turn it around, and point him out so you can target him with a buy-low offer in an attempt to strengthen your team in the long run.

Today, we will be doing things a bit differently. We've been listening to the rumors around the league and used our common sense as well, to gather the most likely trade candidates before the February 7 trade deadline. We are bringing them to you in this article with some advice on what to expect and what to do with them, to help you beat the trade deadline hype which is just days, maybe even hours away.

Do be aware, however, that these players are just rumored to be on the market, and no deal is imminent at this moment. But the probability of their move should be taken into consideration when thinking about their rest of season value and whether to look to move them or make a move to acquire them. And, anyways - once the news of a trade is announced, it's usually too late to get a proper deal done for that player. Here are our Sell High and Buy Low candidates for Week 15 of the NBA season, right here at RotoBaller.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NBA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS tools, Lineup Optimizer and daily Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 15

Is Grit-n-Grind Grounded? What to do with the Memphis Grizzlies' vets?

After a decent start to the season, the Grizzlies have now lost 12 out of their last 13 games. As a result, the Grizzlies find themselves seven games outside of the #8 spot in the West, with only the lowly Suns behind them.

With the chance of making the playoffs getting smaller after every game, Memphis is considering trading their star players and veterans in favor of a rebuilding effort. The guys most likely to attract interest of both other NBA teams, but also fantasy managers, are Marc Gasol and Mike Conley.

 

Marc Gasol

With him turning 34 in a few days, Gasol doesn't have the time to wait for Memphis to build a winning roster, and Memphis can't depend on him if they are going for a rebuild. Gasol has a player option, so it's not imperative to move him at this deadline, but it is a logical move for a player and a franchise heading in the opposite directions.

Gasol just triple-doubled in his previous game against the Hornets with 22 points, 17 boards, 10 dimes, two threes, and three steals. He went 8-of-15 from the field and 4-of-5 from the line in that game to boot. He did turn the ball over three times, but that's hardly a factor for fantasy owners in such a performance.

His owners would be wise to try and swap him for a player who has similar value, as there are plenty of possible scenarios where Marc will lose a part of his. One comes to mind, where he is traded to a competitor where he will be more of a veteran presence than a star player. The other is if he stays in Memphis, but gets shut down towards the end of the season in favor of developing young players.

To avoid such risks, a player like Tobias HarrisLaMarcus Aldridge or Myles Turner should all provide you with similar value, but lower risk towards the end of the season, so if you can swap Gasol for any of them, I would support such a move.

Baller Move: Sell high

 

Mike Conley

With Conley being 32, he and Gasol are in a similar situation. The biggest difference is that Conley still has a couple of years left on his contract, and he has a max deal, so it's unlikely that a team will trade for him and not give him significant minutes and high usage.A trade could even help his value as it would lower the risk of a shutdown.

However, it is also possible that he is traded to a less attractive location (fantasy-wise) or, if he stays, he could get occasionally rested or even shut down later on in the season with nothing to play for in Memphis. Both of these outcomes would significantly lower Mike's value, so fantasy owners could try to avoid this risk by trading him for another guy that can provide similar value. Furthermore, Mike is coming off a 31-point performance against Kemba Walker so this could help his owners sell him.

If you are not a gambling man, and would rather have someone with safer value on your roster, you could look to trade Mike for someone of similar value, or even a guy like Jarrett AllenJosh Richardson or Brook Lopez. All of these three players are objectively less valuable in a standard 9-cat format than Mike, but their values for the rest of the season should be safe.

To be honest with you, I am a Conley owner myself and tried to float an offer for DeMar DeRozan a week ago, but got rejected. Now, as a stubborn man I am, unless I get a decent deal, I'm holding. But if I can get a quality player back, I would move Mike in a heartbeat to avoid stressing over his situation in the next two weeks.

Baller Move: Sell or hold at your own peril

 

Coke Hawk Down

The Atlanta Hawks have made it clear that they are doing a rebuild when they dispersed their "All-Star four+one" from a few seasons ago. They have since filled their roster with young and talented players and a few veteran presences in Vince Carter and Jeremy Lin, to help guide their youth in the right direction.

There are a few guys who don't quite fit in what's going on in Atlanta, so it is logical to assume they could be traded soon. The most obvious candidates are:

 

Kent Bazemore and Dewayne Dedmon

I won't spend too much time talking about Baze as he hasn't played in a single game in 2019, and will probably be out a couple of weeks more, so there isn't much value you could get back for him even if you are keeping him.

Dedmon, on the other hand, could land you a decent guy in return - should you decide to deal him away.

Dewayne is 29 (he is actually just five days younger than me), and just doesn't check the "young" box the Hawks are currently looking for. Furthermore, he is playing quite well this season, setting and matching career-highs left and right. In the eleven games he played over the last 30 days Dedmon has averaged 13.5 PTS with 2.0 3PM on 48.2 FG% and 94.4 FT%, 8.3 REB, 2.0 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.8 BLK, and 2.0 TO in a little under 28 minutes per outing.

These performances have raised his price both in the real and fantasy NBA, so the Hawks, as well as his fatnasy owners, can put forward a higher asking price for the big man. And both the Hawks and fantasy owners would be wise to use this to their advantage.

Should Dedmon get traded, it will most probably be to a contender who is looking for some extra help from the bench for their playoff push. This will see Dedmon get around 20 minutes a game, which just won't be enough for the former Spur to contribute on a top-100 level. If you can get a top-70 player for Dedmon, it would probably turn out for the best.

Baller Move: Sell high

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