X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Outfield Busts Due To Bounce Back for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Taylor Ward - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Kevin's fantasy baseball outfield bounce back candidates for 2024. He looks at MLB outfielders who underperformed but are due for positive regression.

Each baseball season features its share of underwhelming performances. Whether due to regression, age, bad luck, injury, or any other number of random factors, every player is susceptible to a bust of a season.

In some instances, a busted season indicates a player’s new normal. Knowing when to cut losses on a declining player is critical to success. However, it’s also crucial for fantasy baseball managers to identify players who are more likely to bounce back the following season as valuable fantasy assets.

This article explores several outfielders who underperformed compared to their ADP in 2023 and unfolds why they might play better this season. The players on this list have seen their ADP drop heading into 2024. They should be considered value picks with a worthwhile shot at exceeding expectations.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox

The first year of Andrew Benintendi’s five-year, $75 million contract was a huge disappointment for the Chicago White Sox. Through 151 games played, the lefty slashed .262/.326/.356 with an uninspiring 87 wRC+. While the batting average and on-base percentage were decent enough, Benintendi’s power was completely nonexistent, producing just five home runs and 41 total extra-base hits. However, there is reason to believe his slugging percentage can rebound in 2024.

The reports about Benintendi's health are at the core of the offseason optimism. Following the end of last season, Benintendi revealed that a hand injury plagued most of his 2023 campaign. His hand had apparently never fully healed following a prior injury and subsequent surgery that ended Benintendi’s 2022 season prematurely. Spring training reports about health are notoriously generous, but Benintendi is at full strength for the first time in close to two years if the rumors are to be believed.

2022 was also a disappointing season at the plate for Benintendi from a power-hitting standpoint. Over 126 appearances, he still managed only five home runs. That said, the underlying metrics were significantly more encouraging, featuring a .273 xBA (.270 in 2023), .407 xSLG (.375 in 2023), 89.2 mph average exit velocity (86.6 mph in 2022), and a .334 xwOBA (.310 in 2023).

While Benintendi will never be a prolific power hitter, it’s reasonable to assume that he can settle back into the 13-20 home run range he consistently maintained from 2017-2021.

It was not a long time ago that Benintendi was a perennial 15-home run, 15-stolen base threat. Now entering his age-28 season, and with a debilitating hand injury supposedly in the rearview mirror, it’s not hard to imagine a return to form.

 

Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels

Taylor Ward shot up draft boards last year following a promising 2022 campaign featuring a .281/.360/.473 slash line alongside 23 home runs and a 137 wRC+. Instead of delivering the breakout season many had hoped for, Ward generated a middling .253/.335/.421 slash line with 14 home runs and a 107 wRC+. His season abruptly concluded at only 97 games played following a 92 mph sinker to the face, resulting in three facial fractures.

Now healthy, the hype surrounding Ward is significantly diminished. His ADP sits at a budget-friendly 273, well below where he stood this time last season. At 30 years old, Ward is certainly not too old to bounce back, and the nature of his injury does not suggest recurring issues moving forward. While he did underperform during his partial 2023 campaign, there is reason to suspect Ward will be a significant fantasy producer in 2024.

Ward’s underlying numbers last season were ultimately disappointing compared to expectations. He produced a .338 xwOBA (.361 in 2022), .254 xBA (.268 in 2022), .430 xSLG (.474 in 2022), and an 8.2% barrel rate (12.4% in 2022). While the production dip is plain to see, it’s worth noting that he opened the season with a slump and gathered steam with each passing month.

Ward posted a 79 wRC+ across 29 games between March and April, an 85 wRC+ in 24 May appearances, then a 99 wRC+ in 24 June games, and he finally caught fire in July with a 182 wRC+ over 20 games played. If the full season had played out, Ward might very well have put up some big numbers by the season’s end.

Given his current ADP, Ward should be considered an exceptional high-upside value pick. The fluke nature of his injury last season leaves little reason to believe that he isn’t physically up to the task of a bounce-back campaign.

 

Tyler O'Neill, Boston Red Sox

Injuries have plagued Tyler O’Neill during his major league tenure. He’s surpassed 100 games played only once in his career in 2021, and the results that season were spectacular. O’Neill has played 96 games and 72 games in the two campaigns since, and the time off has significantly hindered his ability to find a rhythm at the plate. Now starting over fresh and healthy with the Boston Red Sox, O’Neill is primed for a bounce-back performance this year.

As mentioned above, 2021 was O’Neill’s healthiest season. Across 136 appearances, he generated an impressive .286/.352/.560 slash line with 34 home runs and a 143 wRC+. That success includes some staggering advanced metrics, including a .392 xwOBA, .279 xBA, .582 xSLG, 93 mph average exit velocity, 17.9% barrel rate, and a 52.2% hard-hit rate. Whether O’Neill ever repeats these numbers is increasingly becoming a question mark, but it demonstrates his capability to be one of the league’s better hitters.

O’Neill’s output since has been disappointing. He has missed roughly half of the possible games played with injury and underperformed to a 99 wRC+ in 2022 and a 97 wRC+ last season. The trend is concerning, to be sure, but at only 28 years old, it’s well within the range of outcomes that O’Neill can bounce back as a significant offensive producer.

Further, the change of scenery should be a worthwhile consideration for O’Neill. His effort on the field and relationship to St. Louis Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol had soured last season, and a new home may be exactly what he needs. Crucially, Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, and O’Neill will now get to play half of his games there.

With O'Neill, injury remains a constant risk, but his upside is much better than his 258 ADP suggests. It may not work out in the end, but there are many reasons it can, and buying low on Tyler O’Neill could end up being one of the most significant moves fantasy managers make this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF