X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Outfield Busts Due To Bounce Back for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Taylor Ward - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Kevin's fantasy baseball outfield bounce back candidates for 2024. He looks at MLB outfielders who underperformed but are due for positive regression.

Each baseball season features its share of underwhelming performances. Whether due to regression, age, bad luck, injury, or any other number of random factors, every player is susceptible to a bust of a season.

In some instances, a busted season indicates a player’s new normal. Knowing when to cut losses on a declining player is critical to success. However, it’s also crucial for fantasy baseball managers to identify players who are more likely to bounce back the following season as valuable fantasy assets.

This article explores several outfielders who underperformed compared to their ADP in 2023 and unfolds why they might play better this season. The players on this list have seen their ADP drop heading into 2024. They should be considered value picks with a worthwhile shot at exceeding expectations.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Andrew Benintendi, Chicago White Sox

The first year of Andrew Benintendi’s five-year, $75 million contract was a huge disappointment for the Chicago White Sox. Through 151 games played, the lefty slashed .262/.326/.356 with an uninspiring 87 wRC+. While the batting average and on-base percentage were decent enough, Benintendi’s power was completely nonexistent, producing just five home runs and 41 total extra-base hits. However, there is reason to believe his slugging percentage can rebound in 2024.

The reports about Benintendi's health are at the core of the offseason optimism. Following the end of last season, Benintendi revealed that a hand injury plagued most of his 2023 campaign. His hand had apparently never fully healed following a prior injury and subsequent surgery that ended Benintendi’s 2022 season prematurely. Spring training reports about health are notoriously generous, but Benintendi is at full strength for the first time in close to two years if the rumors are to be believed.

2022 was also a disappointing season at the plate for Benintendi from a power-hitting standpoint. Over 126 appearances, he still managed only five home runs. That said, the underlying metrics were significantly more encouraging, featuring a .273 xBA (.270 in 2023), .407 xSLG (.375 in 2023), 89.2 mph average exit velocity (86.6 mph in 2022), and a .334 xwOBA (.310 in 2023).

While Benintendi will never be a prolific power hitter, it’s reasonable to assume that he can settle back into the 13-20 home run range he consistently maintained from 2017-2021.

It was not a long time ago that Benintendi was a perennial 15-home run, 15-stolen base threat. Now entering his age-28 season, and with a debilitating hand injury supposedly in the rearview mirror, it’s not hard to imagine a return to form.

 

Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels

Taylor Ward shot up draft boards last year following a promising 2022 campaign featuring a .281/.360/.473 slash line alongside 23 home runs and a 137 wRC+. Instead of delivering the breakout season many had hoped for, Ward generated a middling .253/.335/.421 slash line with 14 home runs and a 107 wRC+. His season abruptly concluded at only 97 games played following a 92 mph sinker to the face, resulting in three facial fractures.

Now healthy, the hype surrounding Ward is significantly diminished. His ADP sits at a budget-friendly 273, well below where he stood this time last season. At 30 years old, Ward is certainly not too old to bounce back, and the nature of his injury does not suggest recurring issues moving forward. While he did underperform during his partial 2023 campaign, there is reason to suspect Ward will be a significant fantasy producer in 2024.

Ward’s underlying numbers last season were ultimately disappointing compared to expectations. He produced a .338 xwOBA (.361 in 2022), .254 xBA (.268 in 2022), .430 xSLG (.474 in 2022), and an 8.2% barrel rate (12.4% in 2022). While the production dip is plain to see, it’s worth noting that he opened the season with a slump and gathered steam with each passing month.

Ward posted a 79 wRC+ across 29 games between March and April, an 85 wRC+ in 24 May appearances, then a 99 wRC+ in 24 June games, and he finally caught fire in July with a 182 wRC+ over 20 games played. If the full season had played out, Ward might very well have put up some big numbers by the season’s end.

Given his current ADP, Ward should be considered an exceptional high-upside value pick. The fluke nature of his injury last season leaves little reason to believe that he isn’t physically up to the task of a bounce-back campaign.

 

Tyler O'Neill, Boston Red Sox

Injuries have plagued Tyler O’Neill during his major league tenure. He’s surpassed 100 games played only once in his career in 2021, and the results that season were spectacular. O’Neill has played 96 games and 72 games in the two campaigns since, and the time off has significantly hindered his ability to find a rhythm at the plate. Now starting over fresh and healthy with the Boston Red Sox, O’Neill is primed for a bounce-back performance this year.

As mentioned above, 2021 was O’Neill’s healthiest season. Across 136 appearances, he generated an impressive .286/.352/.560 slash line with 34 home runs and a 143 wRC+. That success includes some staggering advanced metrics, including a .392 xwOBA, .279 xBA, .582 xSLG, 93 mph average exit velocity, 17.9% barrel rate, and a 52.2% hard-hit rate. Whether O’Neill ever repeats these numbers is increasingly becoming a question mark, but it demonstrates his capability to be one of the league’s better hitters.

O’Neill’s output since has been disappointing. He has missed roughly half of the possible games played with injury and underperformed to a 99 wRC+ in 2022 and a 97 wRC+ last season. The trend is concerning, to be sure, but at only 28 years old, it’s well within the range of outcomes that O’Neill can bounce back as a significant offensive producer.

Further, the change of scenery should be a worthwhile consideration for O’Neill. His effort on the field and relationship to St. Louis Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol had soured last season, and a new home may be exactly what he needs. Crucially, Fenway Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, and O’Neill will now get to play half of his games there.

With O'Neill, injury remains a constant risk, but his upside is much better than his 258 ADP suggests. It may not work out in the end, but there are many reasons it can, and buying low on Tyler O’Neill could end up being one of the most significant moves fantasy managers make this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
NFL

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Braelon Allen

Says He Has a Lot Left to Prove
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Juan Soto

Homers Twice in Loss
Nick Kurtz

Avoids Serious Injury
MacKenzie Gore

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Reaches 25-Homer, 25-Steal Milestone
Chris Sale

Activated on Saturday
Dansby Swanson

Homers Twice, Drives in Six in Win
Nick Kurtz

Leaves Game With Oblique Soreness
Joe Burrow

Bengals Feel Joe Burrow Just had "the Best Training Camp of his Career"
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
De'Von Achane

Should be Ready for Week 1
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Green Bay Packers

Packers Acquire Micah Parsons, Sign him to Four-Year Extension
Jauan Jennings

Remains Sidelined at Practice
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs
Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Looking to Trade Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Tyrese Haliburton

Expects to Return in 15 Months
Terance Mann

Confident About Having a Big Year in Brooklyn
Zaccharie Risacher

Aims to Improve Ball-Handling Skills
NBA

Pistons And Timberwolves Join Race for Malik Beasley
John Tonje

Signs Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Max Strus

to Miss 3-4 Months After Surgery

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP