Bust Potential: Five NFL Rookies That Could Flop

August 28, 2023

Rookies oftentimes can be the difference between a good fantasy team and a great fantasy team. Drafters beware: these five rookies could bust.

Peak draft season continues to rumble along and we are now under two weeks away from NFL kickoff. For those who have waited until late to get drafts done, as you should with all of the roster reshuffling as teams cut to 53 players, it’s time to dive deep into the fantasy football world and compile your last second research.

Every season, rookies break out down the stretch and carry fantasy teams to the promised land. We saw it with guys like Kenneth Walker, Christian Watson, and Rachaad White last season as they started slow but became more integrated with their offenses as the season continued.

With rookies, it’s always buyer beware. For every rookie that succeeds, there’s another that underperforms expectations and ultimately ends up being a flop. Be cautious this season with these five rookies, who all possess immense upside but also incredible bust potential.

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers

The number one pick of the 2023 NFL Draft will roll out as the Panthers’ starting quarterback from day 1. That does not mean you should insert him into your fantasy lineup, or even draft him at all in single quarterback leagues.

Rookie quarterbacks historically have a tough time adjusting to the league in their first season and are rarely great fantasy assets. Young does not have the most promising cast around him to elevate him to strong numbers, and is not the rookie you should be chasing this season. His small stature could limit his rushing upside as well, given he won’t want to take a hit at the NFL level.

Bryce Young, Panthers starting offense gets just three points as offensive line struggles mounthttps://t.co/0vh1KuXLg9 pic.twitter.com/H0SsU9U6jl

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) August 19, 2023

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Another rookie quarterback that has been garnering hype this offseason is Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. I’m here to cool it off. While his rushing ability intrigues many fantasy managers and has many people selecting him as their QB1 for this season, it must be taken into account that in order to stay on the field and to give yourself a weekly floor you need to be able to pass an accurate ball.

In watching all 19 of Anthony Richardson‘s pass attempts last night, you saw a little bit of everything. There were some incredible throws, some bad decisions, but the talent and upside is undeniable.

Here is a well executed RPO by him. pic.twitter.com/A2XER51Qzm

— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) August 25, 2023

Richardson only completed 54.7% of his passes over his Florida career, with a 53.8% completion rate last season to go with nine interceptions. Accuracy is not his game, and ultimately to be an NFL quarterback you need to be accurate. While he is an extreme athlete and has a huge arm and elite speed, his ceiling could be severely limited if he is unable to fix his accuracy issues. As mentioned before, rookie quarterbacks often struggle in the NFL. Pump the breaks on Richardson and go choose a more established quarterback for your fantasy squad this season.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

While I am super jazzed about Dalton Kincaid’s long-term upside and don’t even think that the Travis Kelce comparisons are that farfetched, rookie tight ends historically struggle to produce consistent numbers as well. Buffalo zeroed in on Kincaid in round 1 knowing that they needed to improve their weapons for Josh Allen, but we can’t just ignore the fact that Dawson Knox is still on the roster. The upside with Kincaid is obvious, given that behind Stefon Diggs the most proven pass-catching option is Gabe Davis and behind him it is Dawson Knox, but it may take some time for the Utah product to get up to speed with the professional game.

Buffalo Bills preseason target distribution on 16 Josh Allen dropbacks:

- Stefon Diggs of course
- Gabe Davis with a 29% target share and 51% air yardage share 👀
- Targets weren't there, but 81% route involvement for Dalton Kincaid is great pic.twitter.com/S8DhF4vnEC

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 28, 2023

There are rumors that Kincaid could operate as the Bills’ slot man with Knox operating in a more traditional blocking tight end role. In this offense with an undefined role, Kincaid has obvious upside, especially at a barren tight end position. Drafting him for upside is smart, but be sure to pair him with a solid floor tight end like Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee, or Zach Ertz in the possible event that he does flop.

Devon Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins zeroed in on Devon Achane during the draft process and even passed on the chance to add Dalvin Cook to their backfield. As it stands right now, the only two players standing in Achane’s way are JAGs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Pump the breaks before the hype gets too hot.

Miami is clearly unfulfilled with their backfield, seemingly being involved in rumors every time a star running back becomes available. Keep an eye on them to potentially land Jonathan Taylor prior to Tuesday, or to pull off a Christian McCaffrey-esque in-season trade. 

Ian Rapoport says he believes the Colts will have a trade they like to trade Jonathan Taylor by Tuesday. He says there is a 2nd team interested besides Miami, but he isn’t 100% sure who that team is. pic.twitter.com/7mQK9BsL4z

— DolphinsTalk.com (@DolphinsTalk) August 28, 2023

Even if they roll with their current backfield for all of 2023, it will be a committee. While Achane is an exciting player who offers elite speed, he won’t function as a workhorse due to his size. His ceiling is a boom or bust player, and his floor is very little usage with Mostert and Wilson being the 1-A and 1-B in a committee. He’s a fun player but could be a fantasy bust in his rookie season.

Jalin Hyatt, WR, New York Giants

Speaking of athletic freaks, Giants’ rookie receiver Jalin Hyatt offers elite speed and brings a new field-stretching dimension to New York’s underrated offense. While the Giants’ target shares are a question mark, reports point towards Darren Waller as the alpha in the passing game this season. That being said, this is one of the most unknown passing games in the league entering 2023. That glimmer of hope is what makes Hyatt intriguing.

How will the #Giants receiver room shake out? @DarrylSlater broke down their options on my podcast this week. Check out his thoughts below and listen to our full conversation here: https://t.co/0ub5jofoUx pic.twitter.com/7RP5k3EXTK

— Mike Phillips (@MPhillips331) August 15, 2023

Historically, speed guys like Hyatt are one-dimensional boom-or-bust type of players. DeSean Jackson is a name that comes up a lot when talking about Hyatt. Jackson was the ultimate boom-or-bust player during his career. If Hyatt has a similar career trajectory as Jackson, he is nowhere near a flop. 

However as a rookie, there is no telling how much usage he will see. While the receiver room is full of question marks, it is also full of depth. In a worst-case scenario, Hyatt gets buried behind Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Isaiah Hodgins, Sterling Shepard, and Wan’Dale Robinson and classifies as a bust. While his long-term potential is enticing, draft Hyatt with caution this season.

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