X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - 3M Open

Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) provides free PGA betting picks for the 3M Open. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.

Last week's article mentioned, "...hopefully Smith's wispy mullet doesn't get in the way of too many photos of him and the Claret Jug."  This week, Cameron Smith is the Champion Golfer of the Year and his mullet behaved as well as his putter, not getting in the way of a single photo! Breaking $100 gets its third outright and second Cam Smith victory lap. What a sensational back nine from the Ozzie who scorched the putting greens and lathered the fairways with beautiful butter cuts. When he is playing his best golf, I'm not sure there is anyone more entertaining to watch.

Rory McIlroy continued a phenomenal run of major form and continues to put himself in positions to potentially grab his first major since piling up four of them eight-plus years ago. His play on the course is even more impressive when you think of what he is advocating off the course, defending the PGA Tour from the evil Australian warlock, who continues to poach the best players in the world. A truly heroic performance from Rory in his "home major" in front of a crowd who were basically all there for him.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Twin Cities, Par: 71, Yardage: 7,431, Greens: Bent, Designer: Arnold Palmer

After getting spoilt at the Old Course of St. Andrews the tour jumps back across the pond to tee it up at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. As is the case with most TPC courses, Twin Cities seems to be a ball strikers paradise, emphasizing approach play and rewarding great drivers of the ball. 50% of approach shots will take place from 125-200 yards which will be a key proximity range this week. A combination of length and accuracy off the tee will go a long way to capitalizing on the 13 holes that play under par.

The last trio of winners scoring -15, -19, and -21 all indicate that we are in search of birdie makers who can dominate the three par 5s and continue that into the rest of the round. Matthew Wolf won the 2019 edition leading the field in strokes gained from tee to green (T2G). The other two winners did most of their damage with the putter (both having season-best performances on the greens), but a handful of top-five finishers those years were also inside the top five in T2G, which seems like the blueprint we want to pursue.

Below are the settings for the model:

  • We use two seasons of data for all metrics that don't have an L24 (last 24 rounds). "Szn Weight" is comprised of 66% 2022 stats and 34% 2021 stats.
  • Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (70%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (10%), course history (10%).

 

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Hideki Matsuyama ($6.55 @ +1800 onDraftKings)

As the best golfer in my model by quite a significant margin over Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama has odds +400 points more than Tony. Hello value! Before we get into what makes Hideki the best player in this field, we need to fully understand that a DQ or WD is definitely a possibility this week but getting the best player in this weaker field at 18-1 is worth the risk.

Hideki leads the field in baseline ball striking and is also inside the top five over the last two-dozen rounds. His proximity numbers from 125-200 are sensational and he also leads the field in both par 5 scoring and birdie or better percentage. As if that were not enough to sell you on the Japanese sensation, he finished T7 here in 2019 while losing strokes in the short game department. If his motivation shows up, without any white out on it (see Memorial DQ), he stands a fantastic chance of winning his third tournament of the year.

Davis Riley ($4.77 @ +2500 on BetMGM)

The Davis Riley outright odds market has been brutal to watch the last few days, as his popularity has driven down his odds across all books. However, regardless of his price, we want him on our card as he showed an impressive run of form heading into the U.S. Open, inevitably finishing outside the top-13 for the first time in six starts. Riley also played seven tournaments in May and June, which adds to the optimism of a refreshed and polished contender after taking off three weeks since.

Riley enters the week with the second-best ball striking numbers over the last 24 rounds, leading the field in approach over that time frame. He is also a birdie-making machine, ranking second to Hideki in that department. Since gaining on approach in six-straight starts, Davis has not gained more than +3.1 total strokes on the greens. He gained more than seven strokes twice in a handful of starts leading up to his iron play combusting into best-in-field territory. If we can get a spike putting week like we have seen before, Riley has the ball striking and birdie making capacity to find himself at the top of the 3M Open leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

Chris Gotterup ($2.43 @ +5000 on PointsBet)

In his five starts on tour so far, Chris Gotterup has flashed incredible ball striking and a putter that is either hot or cold. With that kind of statistical profile, it is only a matter of time until his ball striking and short game tango through the fairways of TPC Twin Cities. In his limited starts, Gotterup has shown the ability the make a bunch of birdies and use his length to take advantage of Par 5s. His sample size is minute, but at 50-1 we are taking a chance on the upside we have seen so far from the rookie.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

First-Round Leaders

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $11.25 on eight guys to net $110 or more. The below image shows the best round one scorers this year. There also seems to be a sizeable wind advantage for the guys going off in the morning on Thursday, which eliminates any PM tee times from the list.

Adam Svensson ($2.70 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

Matthias Schwab ($1.42 @ +9500 on FanDuel)

Seung-Yul Noh ($2.70 @ +5000 on BetRivers)

C.T. Pan ($2.08 @ +6500 on FanDuel)

Vaughn Taylor ($1.05 @ +5000 on DraftKings)

Dylan Fritelli ($2.05 @ +6600 on BetRivers)

Maverick McNealy ($3.38 @ +4000 on FanDuel)

Martin Laird ($2.70 @ +5000 on FanDuel)

 

Placings

At the time of writing this article BetMGM had no placing bets available, so if you get around to betting on these, if available, please use a book that pays ties in full, as long as the odds are within 30 points of what we have below. We have seven placing bets, with six top 20 bets. It's looking to be a volatile event, so we are embracing that with some really long top 20 odds.

Emiliano Grillo (T20: $10 @ +270 on BetRivers)

Cameron Davis (T20: $10 @ +160 on FanDuel)

Tom Hoge (T20: $10 @ +350 on DraftKings)

Chris Gotterup (T20: $10 @ +225 on Ceasars)

Lucas Glover (T20: $10 @ +350 on DraftKings)

Doug Ghim (T20: $10 @ +320 on Ceasars)

Vaughn Taylor (T40: $10 @ +250 on FanDuel)

 

The Farewell Fiver

Martin Laird (T10: $5 @ +450 on FanDuel)

After a T13, a T30 and a solo third place at the Baracuda, Martin Laird will bring his steady ball striking to a ball strikers paradise, where he will hopefully continue his form and ball strike his way to a top 10.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF