Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Divisional Round

January 17, 2021

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the Divisional Round. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hello RotoBallers! It's playoff time in the NFL, which means a limited slate packed full of talented teams. We'll specifically be looking at the DraftKings four-game weekend slate in this article.

The NFL is ever-evolving week to week and that's especially the case in the playoffs. All of these teams are "good", which means the positional matchups that we want to target will be less obvious and a bit thinner. We'll also need to take player popularity into account, as contrarian thinking can really help us gain leverage on these types of slates. It can all be a little "tougher" than the normal DFS formats we see during the regular season, though it does often make for an interesting and fun DFS slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for NFL Playoff Weekend Slate. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Divisional Round Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ BUF ($7,600)

We highlighted Lamar in this article last weekend and he came through for us with a 28.8 DK-point performance against Tennessee. After a sluggish start to the season, Jackson has now went for 25-or-more DK points in five of Baltimore's last six. That success can be tied directly to his increased willingness to run the ball, which as we all know, raises his DFS floor to an elite level.

This weekend he'll square off against a Buffalo Bills Defense that has allowed the second-most rushing TDs in the NFL (7) to the QB position. The Bills are relinquishing 5.02 yards per carry to opposing QBs, a mark that ranks 25th in the league. Jackson's 16 rushing attempts against Tennessee last week illustrates that "all bets are off" in the playoffs and that the Ravens are fully prepared to unleash him on the ground.

Aaron Rodgers - LAR @ GB ($6,900)

Pretty much everything about this matchup against the Rams says, "NO", but dammit, when Aaron Rodgers is the fifth-highest priced QB on a four-game slate I say, "YES"! Rodgers undoubtedly faces some serious challenges in this game, with Aaron Donald set to play, a talented Rams secondary, and the weather in Lambeau all adding up to make this a rather daunting spot for the future Hall of Famer. However, we're talkin' about Aaron Rodgers here.

He's been lethal in his second year in Matt LaFleur's offense, leading the NFL in both completion percentage (70.7%) and passing TDs (48) in an MVP-caliber 2020 campaign, while averaging a healthy 8.2 yards per attempt. In addition to their solid secondary, the Rams have been shutdown-good against the run, which leads me to believe that Green Bay will be forced to rely on Rodgers to generate offense. It all adds up to a "bet on talent to overcome matchup" spot. In addition to the salary savings, we can project him to carry significantly-lower ownership than both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, which will help us be a bit contrarian on this four-game slate.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Divisional Round Picks

Nick Chubb - CLE @ KC ($6,600)

Nick Chubb was my favorite RB on last weekend's Sunday slate and I'm going right back to the well. Chubb overcame a difficult matchup against the Steelers to post 24.5 DK-points in Cleveland's surprising win. Though he's not known for his pass-catching prowess, Chubb snagged all four of his targets for 69 yards and a TD against Pittsburgh. Like life in Jurassic Park, talent just finds a way in the NFL playoffs.

This weekend's matchup against Kansas City is much better on paper than the one he faced against the Steelers, as KC finished the season ranked 31st in the NFL in run defense DVOA. The Chiefs are relinquishing a middling 4.51 yards per carry on the ground and a MASSIVE 6.82 yards per target through the air to the RB position. In addition to the beatable matchup, we can look for Cleveland to try to control this game on the ground for two reasons: to keep the high-octane Chiefs offense off the field and to shy away from a KC secondary that's been very effective at defending the pass this season.

Cam Akers - LAR @ GB ($5,700)

The combination of Jared Goff's injury/ineffectiveness and Green Bay's struggles against the run, makes Cam Akers perhaps the most obvious play on this slate. Toss in an affordable DK price tag and Akers is something of a no-brainer in this spot, with a calculated fade in GPPs being the only real reason not to roster him.

After a slow start to his pro career, the rookie has been strong down the stretch. Akers carried the Rams to a playoff win over Seattle last weekend with a dazzling performance of 176 total yards and a TD. We can expect LA to lean on him again in this matchup against a Packers unit that relinquished an average of 21.1 DK points per game to opposing RBs this season, a mark that placed them 27th in the league and just above teams like the Lions, Jags, and Texans.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Divisional Round Picks

Tyreek Hill - CLE @ KC ($8,000) 

We're always targeting game-breakers in DFS and Tyreek Hill might be the best in the business, as evidenced by his 60.9 DK-point outburst in Week 12 against Tampa Bay. Hill ended the season with a hamstring issue, but after sitting in Week 17 and over KC's bye week, he should be a full go against Cleveland.

The Cheetah has a chance to feast in this one, as the Browns have routinely failed to slow down opposing passing attacks. Cleveland finished bottom-five in the NFL this season in both receiving yards and TDs allowed to the WR position. While Denzel Ward is certainly no slouch, Hill has repeatedly proven himself to be matchup proof.

Chris Godwin - TB @ NO ($6,100) 

It's been an injury-plagued season for Chris Godwin, but when the Tampa slot man has been on the field, he's performed well. That's been especially true down the stretch, as it seems Godwin has finally established a nice rapport with Tom Brady. Over Tampa Bay's last four, Godwin has posted 19 catches for 332 yards and 5 TDs on 33 targets. While he faces an overall-tough Saints Defense this week, he will mostly see the "weak link" of the New Orleans secondary, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Tom Brady has attempted 81 passes over the Bucs' last two and we should continue to see a pass-happy TB offense against a Saints unit that finished the year ranked second in rush defense DVOA.

Deonte Harris - TB @ NO ($3,500)

We all know that Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, and Michael Thomas get all the publicity in this high-powered Saints offense, while New Orleans' often-extraordinary secondary players go overlooked. Perhaps Deonte Harris will be an unsung hero that steps up for the Saints during the stretch run. Despite being way down the priority list in this offense, Harris came off IR to grab seven of seven targets for 83 yards against the Bears last Sunday. In the NFL Playoffs, almost every defensive unit is "good", which forces us to find weak spots within them. Sean Murphy-Bunting can be classified as this Bucs secondary's "weakest link" and it wouldn't surprise me if Sean Payton draws up some plays specifically for Harris in an attempt to exploit Murphy-Bunting. This play is definitely "boom or bust", but he's an intriguing (and cheap) sleeper on this four-game slate.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Divisional Round Picks

Travis Kelce - CLE @ KC ($7,800)

This article has a "Kelce Rule", which I think we established around Week 6 of this season. The rule is pretty simple..."If Travis Kelce is available on the Main Slate, you play him. Ignore the price. Ignore the matchup. Just play him."

Austin Hooper - CLE @ KC ($3,800)

If you're reading this, you must be considering breaking the "Kelce Rule". Not sure why you would want to do that, but if you aren't able to roster Kelce, you might want to look at the TE on the other side of this matchup, Cleveland's Austin Hooper. After signing a MASSIVE contract with the Browns this past offseason, Hooper did very little at the beginning of the year and then missed some time due to an appendectomy. However, he's looked like the player the Browns paid huge money for down the stretch, bringing in 23 of 37 targets for 195 yards and 3 TDs over Cleveland's last four games. Hooper draws a matchup against a Chiefs Defense that has been generous to the TE position this season. KC ranks bottom-10 in the NFL in receptions, yards, and TDs allowed to opposing TEs.

More Weekly DFS Analysis