Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 13 Lineups

December 3, 2023

Joey's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 13 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

Week 13 is finally here, and it might be the most important week for those fantasy managers still fighting for a playoff spot. With most leagues having their playoffs start in Week 15, there are just two regular season games left. That means if your fantasy team is on the bubble, you have to win over the next two weeks. 

With six teams on bye in Week 13, there are likely some difficult start and sit decisions to make this weekend. Players like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and T.J. Hockenson are all off this week, so fantasy managers might be scrabbling to find replacements. 

This article will feature potential boom and bust plays at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end this week. So, let's dive in and make your start and sit decisions a whole lot easier in Week 13. 

Week 13 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Derek Carr - QB, New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

It has been a very up-and-down year for New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr in fantasy football. From Week 2 to Week 4, Carr averaged just 6.34 fantasy points per game while finishing outside the top 25 for quarterbacks in all three games.

But from Week 6 to Week 9, Carr averaged over 17.5 fantasy points with three top-12 quarterback finishes in that four-game span. Since then, though, the veteran has struggled to do much for the Saints' offense. However, he could get back on track in Week 13 against a Detroit Lions secondary that has given up big fantasy days to quarterbacks in recent weeks. 

Since Week 7, quarterbacks have averaged over 23 fantasy points per game against the Lions, which included some big games from Lamar Jackson (33.9), Justin Herbert (29.4), and Jordan Love (26.6). Despite Carr's inconsistencies under center, he should be in line for a solid fantasy day in a great matchup, especially if Chris Olave -- who is in concussion protocol -- can suit up and play on Sunday. 

Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals 

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has been getting hate all season following a poor start to the year. In the first five games, Harris averaged just 6.2 half-PPR fantasy points. But since then, the 25-year-old back has turned into a consistent fantasy running back. 

From Week 7 to Week 12, Harris has four top-12 running back finishes while averaging 12.3 half-PPR fantasy points during this span. In Week 12, he rushed for a season-high 99 yards on 15 carries with one touchdown. Now, the third-year back gets an Arizona Cardinals defense that has struggled to contain the run this season. 

Arizona has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2023 and is allowing 140.1 rush yards per game. The Cardinals have also allowed a rushing touchdown in five straight games dating back to Week 8. Look at what Kyren Williams did to this rush defense last week, totaling over 35 fantasy points and 143 rush yards in the contest. This is a plus matchup for Harris. 

Adam Thielen - WR, Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's been a weird season for Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen. He was one of the hottest receivers to start the year following a five-game stretch from Week 2 to Week 6, where he finished with over 20 half-PPR points per game. But the veteran hasn't seen that same type of success following the Panthers' Week 7 bye. 

Thielen is averaging just 7.2 half-PPR fantasy points over his last five games and is coming off a one catch for two yards performance in Week 12. The recent production has fantasy managers likely thinking of benching the 33-year-old wideout this week. But this could be a get-right game for the veteran.

The Buccaneers' secondary has struggled over the past couple of weeks, especially in the slot. That's where Thielen plays the majority of his snaps. Despite not doing much last week, Josh Downs saw a season-high 13 targets against slot corner Christian Izien. A few weeks ago, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid combined for 157 receiving yards and 11 catches against Tampa Bay. Thielen could be in for a bounce-back game against this defense. 

Evan Engram- TE, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram continues to see consistent volume on offense. He has seen at least six targets in 10 of 11 games this season. The problem, though, is that Engram hasn't been doing much with that production. He's had only one game over 10 half-PPR fantasy points this year and has not finished as a top-10 tight end since Week 4. 

But if there ever was a game to expect big things for the 29-year-old, it would be this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Just last week, Pat Freiermuth had a career day by catching nine passes for 120 yards. 

Cincinnati hasn't allowed a touchdown to tight ends since Week 4, which isn't great news for Engram -- who has not caught one this year. However, tight ends are averaging six catches for 70.8 yards per game against this Bengals team, making the Jaguars playmaker an easy start in Week 13. 

Week 13 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Jordan Love- QB, Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

With six teams on bye in Week 13, many fantasy managers might be turning to Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love this weekend. After all, Love has back-to-back 20-point fantasy performances and is coming off a QB5 finish last week. In Week 12, he threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns against the Detroit Lions. 

But the matchup in Week 13 against the Kansas City Chiefs scares me. The Chiefs are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Quarterbacks are averaging only 14.5 points, which makes Love hard to trust on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs defense has not given up a 300-yard passer this season, and only Russell Wilson has thrown for more than two touchdowns against this secondary in 2023. On the year, they have allowed just 13 touchdowns to go with 2,156 pass yards. That averages out to just 1.8 touchdowns and 196 yards per game. Love does not have a favorable matchup this week. 

Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins

Don't look now, but Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. is the RB5 in fantasy football right now. Part of the reason has been because the Commanders have yet to have a bye. However, Robinson has put up some solid numbers this season. He has two top-12 running back finishes over the past three weeks. 

However, unless he falls into the end zone in Week 13, it would be hard to imagine him finishing that high against the Miami Dolphins. Not only has Miami done a great job at stopping the run this year, but the Commanders are the biggest underdogs of the week (-9.5). That could mean more opportunities for Antonio Gibson on the field. 

The Dolphins have allowed just one 100-yard rusher since Week 2 and have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in four straight games. In those last four games, opposing running backs are averaging 52.5 yards on the ground. With Washington expected to fall behind early, Robinson could see fewer chances on offense with Gibson playing more in passing situations.

Puka Nacua- WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua was once a waiver wire league winner. But the rookie has not been a consistent fantasy piece since Cooper Kupp returned. Over the last six games, Nacua has two top-13 wide receiver fantasy finishes, and four wide receiver finishes outside the top 50. 

The rookie has been hit or miss in recent weeks and it is extremely hard to start him in Week 13 against this Browns secondary. Cleveland is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts in half-PPR formats this season at just 20.1 points. Over the past four weeks, the opposing team's wide receivers (combined) have failed to hit that mark. 

Nacua has a good chance of struggling on Sunday. However, it would help him if Denzel Ward (shoulder) were to miss Week 13. Ward did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, Cleveland has other stud cornerbacks that could fill in if he couldn't go, making the rookie wideout a risky play regardless. 

Tyler Higbee- TE, Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns

Following an unexpected game for Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, he might be on fantasy radars in Week 13. With Hockenson, Kincaid, and Cole Kmet all on byes, fantasy managers might need a replacement for this weekend. In Week 12, Higbee caught five passes for 29 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams' blowout win. 

However, in Week 13, Higbee is better left on your bench. Last week was just the second time all year that the veteran finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end scorer. And he'll have a hard time repeating that on Sunday. The Browns are allowing just 4.8 half-PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. On top of that, they have only allowed one tight end (Mark Andrews) to score above eight fantasy points.

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