February 12, 2018

Andre looks at the fantasy basketball value of Charlotte Hornets wing Nicolas Batum.

Quick! How many current NBA players are French? If you got 11, you’re correct, but maybe ask yourself why you know that…?!

One of our beloved baguette ballers is, none other than, Nicolas Batum of the Charlotte Hornets. Batum is known to be a versatile wing who can fill the stat sheet with solid points, rebounds, and assists. He recently pulled out a triple-double against Atlanta. He was traded from Portland to Charlotte in the 2015-2016 season, and has a rather expensive contract through 2021 (5 year – 120 million dollars). Over the past four seasons, he has produced fantasy rankings of 59^th, 59^th, 69^th, and 36^th. Batum was recovering from an elbow injury that kept him from playing the first few weeks of the season, and his shooting was rusty upon his return. But over the past two weeks (8 games), he has come back to be ranked 55^th with similar shooting splits to his healthy form. Batum is also an intriguing player to consider as he was shopped in potential trades along with Charlotte star, Kemba Walker. There could be bad teams willing to eat up his contract, and fans may not see Batum back on the Hornets next season. But we can table that conversation for a later date.

Today, I will be looking at how Batum fits into Charlotte’s lineup and how he has slowly gained traction coming back from his injury. I will be looking primarily at his impact on several different iterations of the Hornets’ five-man lineups, as well as his shooting/passing contributions. I will end the discussion looking at Batum’s outlook for fantasy owners and suggest potential action steps to take with Batum on owners’ rosters.

A Bite-Sized Analysis of Nicolas Batum

Let’s take a quick scan at the stats Batum is producing compared to the stats produced last year.

The first thing that leaps out to me is that Batum has been shooting relatively close to his shooting splits from last year which would surprise most whining Batum owners. This may mean that, over the past few weeks, Batum has been shooting well enough to compensate for his rusty start. Overall, Batum seems to have had less opportunities than last season in terms of ability to create box score stats. His shots per game are down to 10.6 from 12.7 last season. He is taking 4.5 threes per game down from 5.3 threes per game last season. Lastly, his free throw attempts are down to 2.2 per game from 3.7 attempts per game last season. To prove a point, Batum has an effective field goal percentage of 49.3% which is higher than last season (47.2%), meaning that he is actually shooting better, but he’s had reduced opportunities to score. However, owners should be excited with Batum’s recent production: over the past two weeks, he’s averaging, attempts-wise, 13.5 shots/game, 7.5 threes/game, and 2.8 free throws/game. There is potential for Batum to pull up his stats from the dismal shooting he had to start his season.

Let’s take a glance at the shots Batum takes. Of his favored shots, he mostly shoots catch and shoot balls. He holds the highest average of attempts for this kind of shot on his team. He doesn’t take many layups (only 10.7% of his shots). He is mostly spreading the floor – taking 39.8% of his shots from between 10 feet of the basket and the three-point line. Lastly, 43.1% of his shots come from three-point territory. Given the shot selection, it makes sense that Batum can have up and down nights for his field goal percentage. Any objective analyst would agree that Batum is shooting a little better as of late than is sustainable, but this is closer to the norm. Additionally, Batum is valuable as a shooting guard that provides strong assist numbers. He has the second most passes made per game on his team (40.2) and his assist to pass percentage sits at 11.8% (first on his team). He is set up well on the Hornets to produce assists.

The last aspect I will be turning to is lineup data. Although he played some small forward in Portland, Batum plays 73% of his time at shooting guard now. The main starting lineup (Walker, Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, and Dwight Howard) boast a net rating of 4.8. The second most played lineup, switching out Batum for Jeremy Lamb, has a net rating of 12.3 and sees a major boost in offense. Lamb played well in Batum’s injury absence, and they have shared the court together in Batum’s return. Unfortunately, they carry a -9.4 net rating playing together and the offense slips to a horrendous 99.2 rating. Five-man lineups with Lamb and Batum on the court together produce awful net ratings. The third and sixth most played lineups have the two players together and showcase -7.8 and -40.8 net ratings, respectively. That’s enough data to show that the two should not be playing together. Lamb can still play well coming off the bench for Charlotte, but this may be early signs that Lamb may be preferred to Batum later. However, in the present, Batum still holds tight to a starting role and gets the second most touches on his team. To conclude, Batum could be a candidate to be moved in the offseason with Lamb and the raw Malik Monk waiting in the wings. Batum could excel on a poor team, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Batum is a player that could be added as a second piece in a fantasy trade due to his recent, enticing numbers, but he is also worth a hold for owners patient enough. Batum sits at 6^th – 8^th round value for the remainder of the season.

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