Wide Receiver Draft Targets - Slot Receivers

Antonio Losada dives head-first into slot receiving data to find the wide receiver position's best sleepers and WR ADP values for 2021 fantasy football drafts.

Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question the best way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of wide receivers, where how they are lining up on the field has a direct correlation with production.

Slot receivers don't quite offer the boom-upside an outside receiver will deliver (typically). What they do excel at is running high percentage routes and catching passes in traffic. Many of the game's best slot receivers are often regarded as some of the best and most undervalued options in PPR formats.

In this column, I will try to find the position's best sleepers based on the team's tendency to target the slot, the player's slot volume, and the current situation the team is in. Average Draft Position will play a role as well, considering where these players can be had in most fantasy drafts as we get closer to the start of the 2021 campaign.

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Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills

I am not unveiling anything with this pick. Beasley has been a slot stud for years now, and somehow he keeps being underrated by fantasy GMs on a yearly basis. Some things, one just never understands. Only two players broke the 90% barrier when it came to the percentage of plays starting off the slot position in 2020: Beasley and still-unsigned Danny Amendola. Beasley, though, did it 620 total times compared to Amendola's 413, quite a jump.

Beasley's stats are obviously those related to someone playing the slot so often. His aDOT of 7.9 yards ranked inside the 13th percentile among WRs with at least 500 snaps last year, but the truth is that he did the most out of his opportunities with a monster 2.1 Yards/Route Run (82nd percentile), 3.3 YAC/Target (72nd percentile), and 81.2% Contested Catch Rate.

Beasley will have to share the field with Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders this upcoming season, but that shouldn't take a lot of targets from him given that Sanders is just replacing John Brown in Buffalo's offense. PFF has Beasley projected to a healthy 198+ PPR points over the 2021 season for a WR34 finish when all is said and done. Beasley's ADP, though, is  138th overall and WR49 at the time of this writing, which makes little sense and is, once more, every year's history with Beasley. Take advantage and reap the rewards.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

Contrasting stories those told by counting and rate stats about JuJu's 2020 season. While Smith-Schuster ran the most slot routes last year (750) without anyone getting even remotely close to his tally (Greg Ward ranked second with "only" 695 such routes), the truth is that Pittsburgh used JuJu a little bit more around the field through the year: only 81% of JSS's total routes came from the slot position.

So, does this mean JuJu is a slot receiver or an outside threat? None, and both. But we can pretty much consider JSS a slot wide receiver these days with the likes of Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington crowding the sidelines. For all of the critics that JuJu had to endure last season, you wouldn't think he was fantastic while manning the slot, finishing as the WR16 in PPR-format leagues last season.

JuJu was the lone top-16 wide receiver with a slot rate above 72%, and one of only two players (CeeDee Lamb) to finish as WR2 while having that rate of plays off the slot. JSS numbers were even more skewed than those of Beasley. Just check the image above and see for yourself: lowest aDOT among all filtered WRs and fourth-lowest Completed AY/Target. But same as Beasley, he boasted a masterful 6.1 Rec/G, catching almost 54% of the contested passes he had to fight for.

The PFF projection talks of JuJu as a 190+ PPR points player for the 2021 campaign, which would translate to a WR39 finish. If I'm honest, that feels super low to me, even more with JuJu playing to excellent levels in 2020 and now sharing the field with the same teammates and rookie Najee Harris at the RB position--yes, keeping defenses honest is a real thing that matters and helps wide receivers in pass plays. With an ADP of WR30 and 85th overall, that feels like the right price to pay for a more than capable WR2, if you ask me.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb logged the seventh-most plays off the slot in 2020 and he was second only to Greg Ward (695 and 88%) when pairing his total slot routes (633) and slot rate (87%). All Lamb needed to hit the ground running was, well, nothing. Nothing, as Lamb put on such a great season as a rookie, without Dak Prescott available for most of the year. Talk about looking good going forward.

Among wide receivers with at least 700 plays on the year, Lamb ranked tied-last (Cooper Kupp) in outside plays with just 63 (9% of his total plays). He's a pure slot receiver, full stop. In fact, Lamb (along with Ward) is one of only two players to close 2020 with an outside-slot and tight-end-slot rates both below 10%. All other receivers in the NFL part of that 700+ plays group logged double digits in at least one of those two position rates.

Lamb will benefit from Prescott's comeback in 2021 and is part of a freaking loaded offense that also features a top-five rusher in Ezekiel Elliott. PFF is bullish on Lamb's sophomore-season upside and projects him to a great WR23 finish next year with 221+ PPR points at his reach. The ADP, though, is sky-high at WR13 and 48th overall. Not too crazy, I know, but for a slot receiver, that's perhaps too much given the safe-but-not-booming upside this type of player comes attached to.

Honorable Mentions

Greg Ward, Philadelphia Eagles

Ward has been mentioned multiple times throughout the article. Makes sense, considering he was the only man to reach an 88% slot rate last season--while being part of 791 offensive plays, on top of that. Ward could only finish 2020 as the 58th-best PPR wideout, but that doesn't look that bad if you consider he had to endure washed-up QB play from Carson Wentz for a long while. Ward projects to an even lower WR108 finish in 2021 as PFF sees it, though his super-low WR141 (318th overall) ADP makes him a true under-the-radar value to draft late in all leagues.

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars

Cole's price at the time of this writing is pretty close to that of Ward. Cole's ADP sits at 276th overall and WR117 while projecting to a WR114 finish. That's mostly because PFF has Cole as the WR4 of the Jets (32 targets) for the upcoming season. We have yet to know if that'll be the case, though, as Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore will need to prove their worth above Cole. Perhaps the thing hurting Cole's upside the most is the presence of Jamison Crowder--himself a slot stud--in the offense, which might cut Cole's chances to become relevant in New York at least in 2021.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals' receiving corps is loaded, but that also means they could turn into a weekly fantasy headache for those betting on any of its pieces. Boyd was the no. 2 receiver of the squad in 2020 in terms of fantasy points, but he fell just two FP short of Tee Higgins' tally (192.6 PPR points to 194.6) while both ranked inside the top-30 WRs of the season in such format. Boyd will now face stiffer competition with the Bengals adding rookie Ja'Marr Chase to the fold, though he should retain his role as the prime slot man for Cincy (Higgins was second but only started 53% of his routes from the slot compared to Boyd's 82%). PFF projects Boyd to a WR35 finish, which would rank below his teammates' projections. Boyd's ADP of WR35 and 99th overall, though, has him as a true value with upside to become a late-round steal in most drafts if he is targeted often by a returning Joe Burrow next season.

More Draft Sleepers and Values