Overvalued Backup Running Backs

July 21, 2021

Antonio Losada looks at NFL backfields and highlights three popular backup running backs that are getting too expensive given their current ADP and potential return on investment.

Who doesn't love to draft a player late and see him blossom into a league winner? That can often be the case with running back handcuffs covering for starters that fall down to injury or enter the season holding out. Drafting a no. 2 running back late, or even getting him from waivers close to (or for) nothing can turn into a league-changing move.

I have already said it in the paragraph above: the key for those players to be truly valuable is getting them as late as possible for the cheapest of payments. The problem? Sometimes fantasy GMs put so much into those backups turning into league winners that their prices skyrocket and their values plummet given their all-or-nothing profiles.

With the season getting closer and the summer getting hotter, it is time to dish out some names worth avoiding in your drafts at the prices they're currently going for. Let's get to it!

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

If I'm honest, I could have picked any of Trey Sermon and Wayne Gallman for this blurb. In fact, I'm not too crazy saying that Raheem Mostert could have very well been included here as there is nothing telling what the hell will happen in San Fran's backfield come the 2021 season. Even Kyle Juszczyk and Jeff Wilson Jr. could eat from those three other running backs in which is closer to a Big Brother full set of characters than a football RB corps.

Judging by PFF projections and mid-July ADP values, Sermon projects to the second-most opportunities among 49ers rushers with 139 over 17 games. Mostert ranks first with only 30 more opportunities (169) while Gallman is third, already at a respectable 90 chances. That's a super-tightly distributed offense with no clear leader in it.

More concerning than anything, though, and something that showcases how close the top two rushers of this team are, is their ADP marks: Mostert has an ADP of RB30 (96th overall) and Sermon sits at RB31 (97.9th overall). Can't get closer, which means you're paying a top-dollar price for a question mark.

Obviously, if you draft the right player--which in this case means the one that stays healthy while the other goes down injured--then you'll have made a great decision. If you don't, I'm sorry, but you'll be throwing your league away. Too much risk involved in this play for me to consider going with it, folks.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Leonard Fournette (100.6), Melvin Gordon (94.0), Mike Davis (78.4)

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jones finds himself in a very similar situation to that of Sermon (read above) when it comes to ADP and projections compared to the (supposedly) RB1 of his team. PFF has Jones projecting to 186 opportunities in 17 games, only seven fewer than Leonard Fournette's 193-opportunity projection.

Again, the ADPs are just the same for this pair with a 100.6th overall for Fournette (RB32) and 100.8th for Jones (RB33). Who do you like the most? Let me answer that for you: you should like none!

Fournette is a little more valuable on PPR formats (projection of 153+ points compared to Jones' 131+) but things are even in Standard leagues. On top of that, consider that the Bucs still have Tom Brady manning the pocket, and also that they brought a nice RB3 in Giovani Bernard--a pass-catching back if anything.

Any of Jones and Fournette could beat their ADP and finish in the RB2 realm if all things go their way. I'd say Fournette is the better pick considering his higher pass-catching prowess and opportunities on that front, although the projections are so tight and close between these two that this looks like too much of a coin flip and a serious gamble to take with a pick inside the first eight/nine rounds of fantasy drafts.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Michael Carter (109.0), David Johnson (114.9), Damien Harris (101.7), Chase Edmonds (78.8)

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

I was having an internal debate about who to write about for the third blurb. I was considering Hubbard and Houston Texans RB Phillip Lindsay for it. I ultimately settled for Hubbard, but I'm going to tackle this as a head-to-head thing so I get to talk about both player cases, as they have very close ADPs at the time of this writing, while in different situations.

Hubbard, as you know, is the new Carolina Panthers backup-RB after last-season phenom Mike Davis moved to the Falcons to take on RB1 duties. If there is a one-man backfield in the NFL, that's Carolina's with Christian McCaffrey at the helm. CMC projects to get 369 (!) opportunities while no other of the three RBs included in PFF projections break the 42-opportunity mark. That's bonkers.

Lindsay, on the other hand, was brought to Houston to (at least we expect) back veteran David Johnson up for the Texans while sharing those second/third-back roles with another free agent signee in Mark Ingram II. Johnson projects 208 opportunities compared to Lindsay's 124 and Ingram's 67.

Hubbard (185.7) and Lindsay (189.2) currently have ADPs virtually on top of each other. They are not expensive players (drafted in the 14th round or later), but you could be waisting a draft pick if you go in either of those two's direction.

While Hubbard benefits from a clear RB2 role if CMC goes down injured, that's the only thing that could save him. Lindsay has more competition (Ingram), so even in the case of Johnson getting injured, he would still have to deal with Ingram in the backfield. In any case, we should assume that 1) CMC won't be off the field as much as he was last season, which seemed like an outlier, and 2) that any of Johnson/Lindsay/Ingram can produce and there is a huge chance they see super balanced work in 2021, rendering all of them non-viable fantasy players other than in spot starts and added through the WW. Fade Chubbard and fade Lindsay/Ingram but keep an eye on those waivers and injury reports just in case.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Tevin Coleman (204.2), James White (198.2), Rashaad Penny (196.5), Darrel Williams (226), Latavius Murray (164.7)

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