CFB Betting Expert Picks for Week Nine (10/31/2020)

October 29, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 9. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

On this coming Halloween, bettorss are still trying to discover what Big Ten teams are for real or which were simply wearing a good costume in their openers last week. Take the Indiana Hoosiers, for example. The Hoosiers are ranked 17th, which marks their highest watermark since 1993, and get to go on the road to take on a Rutgers team that manhandled Michigan State and hopefully made all of our readers some extra cash last week. Are the Hoosiers for real? Are the Scarlet Knights for real? Let's dig into a special Halloween edition of college football betting expert picks.

Week Eight was a much-needed 3-0 week. Rutgers upset Michigan State as a double-digit underdog, Notre Dame's offense cruised as they manhandled the vaunted Pitt defense, and BYU's prolific offense continued to stamp its case for a spot in the college football playoff - I am gladly volunteering to be the conductor of that bandwagon. The bounce-back week brings our season-long record to 13-8.

Week Nine's slate includes a heavy dosage of conference action, and marks our final week before being graced with the beauty of mid-week MACtion. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

#16 Kansas State at West Virginia (-3.5)

O/U: 46

Coach Chris Klieman's Kansas State Wildcats are a team that I have been tailing quite often this year, and for good reason. The team is 4-1 straight-up, and 4-1 against-the-spread, with four consecutive conference wins. Notably absent from the team's depth chart this week is experienced fourth-year starting quarterback Skylar Thompson who will miss the remainder of the season with an undisclosed upper body injury. In his place is true freshman Will Howard, who leaned heavily on star running back Deuce Vaughn in a strong debut with wins over TCU and Kansas. The Wildcats have found their share of creative ways to put points on the board this year without Thompson, having two punts returned and two interceptions returned for touchdowns. Behind the Howard-Vaughn combo, and the two punt returns by Phillip Brooks last week, Kansas State hung 55 points on their in-state rival Jayhawks, and will seek to keep this offensive rhythm alive this week.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are in good hands with Coach Neal Brown. Brown is in his second season after coming over from Troy, and has a talented signal caller in Jarret Doege leading a strong offense. Doege currently holds the longest active streak in FBS for consecutive games with a touchdown pass (25). The Mountaineers, who are playing their 128th season of college football this year, have Leddie Brown in the backfield, who has been a revelation averaging 118.4 yards per game. The defense's strong rankings are bouyed somewhat by a relatively soft schedule that included cupcake games like Eastern Kentucky and Kansas. The defense does have talented gamebreakers like the Stills brothers (Dante and Darius) on the defensive line and Arizona transfer linebacker Tony Fields, but last week's porous performance against Texas Tech is much more reasonable to expect in most Big 12 conference games going forward.

In a game where both teams' scoring offenses average at least 32 points per game, the talent is obvious. Both teams have opportunistic defenses that have shown the ability to score on returns, and the low total gives plenty of flexibility. Expect each team to approach their season scoring average in this conference match.

Pick: Over 46

Central Florida (UCF) at Houston (+2.5)

O/U: 82

Coach Josh Heupel's Golden Knights have taken a fall from recent years with back-to-back losses to Tulsa and Memphis matching last year's conference losses with two already. Since the start of the 2017 season, however, UCF has won 38 of its 44 games and has been thoroughly dominant in American Athletic Conference play on the strength of an explosive offense. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel has quietly put up an eye-popping stat-line including 19 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions this season. While Gabriel deserves to garner more Heisman Trophy discussion, his top receiver Marlon Williams has made a name for himself among NFL scouts with 54 catches in a meager 5 games. The Knights can spread out any offense with a plethora of weapons - hybrid running backs Greg McCrae and Otis Anderson, and receivers Williams, and sophomore Jaylon Robinson, are the main weapons that Houston will need to try to corral. The offensive talent is so deep, that teams can only hope to keep up with the Knights rather than slow them down.

The Houston Cougars are off to a solid 2-1 start in what some expected to be a down year after star quarterback D'Eriq King opted to transfer to Miami (FL). Clayton Tune has stepped up to rank second only behind UCF's Gabriel among AAC quarterbacks in passing efficiency and has thrown for over 300 yards in four straight games. After having their season delayed five separate times, Coach Dana Holgorsen's team finally opened its season on October 8th with a win over Tulane. A loss to BYU and a convincing win over Navy largely don't change the trajectory for this team. The Cougars have a young team, with key freshmen like left tackle Patrick Paul and nose guard Chidozie Nwankwo scattered across the depth chart in key positions.

For fans of high-flying offenses, the UCF Golden Knights are a must-watch. Their 50-49 shootout loss to Memphis should garner attention as one of the best games of 2020. I expect UCF to win this game, but also wanted an excuse to bring back this special highlight that UCF fans probably never want to see again.

Pick: UCF -2.5

#17 Indiana at Rutgers (+10.5)

O/U: 61.5

In arguably the most controversial "photo finish" that college football may see in a longtime, Indiana shocked Penn State with a 36-35 final on quarterback Michael Pennix's outstretched 2-yard rush to convert the two-point conversion. In a game that would never have gone to overtime if Penn State coach James Franklin properly prepared running back Devyn Ford to not run into the end zone, Indiana made the most of every opportunity that the Nittany Lions gave them to mark their first win over a top 10 opponent since 1987. Penix played poorly against the stout Penn State defense until a sensational final drive in regulation and winning score in overtime put the Hoosiers on top. Head coach Tom Allen has done an admirable job of resurrecting the football program at a traditional basketball hotbed that usually reserves the gridiron for second place. Star receiver and NFL prospect Whop Filyor, who caught the touchdown in overtime last week, is a game-breaking athlete who will be difficult for Rutgers to contain. If Rutgers is able to contain Filyor, opportunities should come knocking for 2019 second-team All-Big Ten running back Stevie Scott III or third-team All-Big Ten tight end Peyton Hendershot, who caught 52 passes a season ago.

Rutgers cruised to its first Big Ten win in 22 games last week at the hands of Michigan State. The Scarlet Knights got an adequate performance from Nebraska transfer quarterback Noah Vedral, but were largely successful by forcing an astounding seven turnovers. To put that impressive number in perspective, Rutgers had five fumble recoveries last Saturday, which already exceeded their 2019 season total of four, and the seven turnovers marked the most in a game since they notched seven turnovers against Pitt in 2000. There is no question that this program's trajectory is sharply trending in a positive direction, but bettors should remember where this program started before deciding whether last week's performance can be replicated against some of the conference's heavy hitters.

For those hoping to put faith that we are seeing a wholly new Rutgers team, you'd have to go back to 2009 to see the last time that Rutgers defeated a ranked opponent. While Coach Schiano has brought excitement back to the program, the team still lacks the volume of Big Ten athletes needed to compete with most programs in the conference. Rutgers has only ranked among the top 50 recruiting classes in the nation in the last five years, and even a host of Power Five transfers leave them in a tier below the middle of the pack of the Big Ten.

Pick: Indiana 1st half -6.5