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Dom's analysis of the Chicago Bears offense and its fantasy football value with QB Mitch Trubisky benched and backup quarterback Nick Foles as the starter heading to Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.
With the Bears trailing the Falcons 26-10, Matt Nagy finally made the move Bears fan have anticipated by going to Nick Foles in Week 3. While this may have been expected by most and a surprise to a random few, no one knew exactly when it would happen. With the announcement Monday of Nick Foles being named the new starter, it is now officially a new era in Chicago.
Not only did Coach Nagy and GM Ryan Pace spend all summer claiming Trubisky was the starter, but he also did not play all too badly in the first two weeks of the season. He led the team to a 2-0 start and had 123 passing yards with one TD in Week 3 before getting pulled. Why then did they decide to make the switch now?
We all know how Foles plays when he is the starter out of training camp. Not well. But when he comes in after a few games, he is incredible. From his 27/2 TD to interception ratio under Chip Kelly to taking the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory in his second tour, Foles is the man when nothing is expected from him. So what does the ascension to starter mean for the rest of the offense in Chicago? This is the question we will hope to answer here.
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Bears Unleashed
After a struggle in the first two weeks with only eight receptions for 107 yards and zero TD, Allen Robinson had a coming out party with Foles in Week 3. Some of this has to do with the putrid nature of the Atlanta defense. But 10 receptions, 123 yards and one TD are nothing to dismiss. We know from history Nick Foles likes to do two things. He likes to hyper-target one receiver and he loves using the tight end position. Both of these happened in Atlanta and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unlike the tight end position, which is manned by aging Jimmy Graham, Allen Robinson is still at his prime at 27 years old. This makes him a buy-now candidate in fantasy leagues. He isn't a buy-low based on ADP cost but he is a player that could exceed expectations and carry teams through the fantasy playoffs. If you are able to get him for another receiver who garners more respect or has more hype, it would greatly benefit you to make the trade. Perhaps you know of a Terry McLaurin truther or maybe a Robert Woods fan. They would be great pieces to dangle in hopes of landing Robinson.
With Nick Foles behind center, A-Rob is set to remain a fixture as WR1 the rest of the season. He will consistently be a top 10 to 15 WR and will earn his new contract extension this off-season.
The other name to remember in the passing game is the tight end mentioned above, Jimmy Graham. He is not great anymore, however, he is the starting TE and this is a valuable position in a Nick Foles-led offense.
Certainly, the two TD receptions are a bit fluky. The six receptions for 60 yards are not. This will be the baseline for the production level you can expect from Graham. At a position where points are hard to come by unless you have a very select number of players, 12 points is nothing to sneeze at. One thing we know about Graham is he has no ability to block. This means, if he is on the field, he will be used as a receiving target.
Robinson has been in on 80% of the offensive snaps for Chicago this season while Graham has a nice 69% snap share. Miller, on the other hand, is at a 47% snap share on the season so far.
Effect on the Running Game
Of course, we cannot expect every game to go the way it did in Week 3. When Foles came in, the Bears were trailing by 16 and needed to throw frequently to catch up. There is another factor in the likely ascension of both Robinson and Graham though. The fact that Tarik Cohen joined the list of NFL players out for the season with ACL injuries. He was the main pass-catching back in the offense. Those targets will need to go somewhere, and it will not be David Montgomery. It will be a mixture of a few to Anthony Miller and mostly to Robinson and Graham, both of whom are on the field the majority of the time.
David Montgomery had a solid Week 2 with 125 total yards. He did not fare so well this past week with only 45 rush yards and nine receiving yards. This will be the type of ping-pong season we can expect from a running back in this offense. As much as Matt Nagy and the Bears will want to get the run game going, with Cohen out, it will be difficult to rely on it to be successful. Chicago will be forced to bring in someone to spell Montgomery meaning his ceiling will still be limited moving forward. He will likely still be usable as an RB2 for fantasy though. Therefore, do not just give up on him especially with all the attrition we have seen to this point. An RB2 this season may be the last man standing and win it all for you.
Anthony Miller is a nice piece. He is a good WR 4 on your roster. He will likely be better as a bye week fill-in than a weekly start. If he starts to get a few of those departed targets which had been going the way of Cohen, he can help a fantasy team. It will not be a huge jump in production though. As stated earlier, Foles likes to concentrate on one main receiver and his tight end.
Miller may also see him get some carries, although Cordarrelle Patterson could fill that role going forward. Patterson averages five carries per game so far and should see that number jump up. That doesn't make him fantasy-relevant though. For fantasy purposes, the best bets in Chicago are Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham. Anything else you get will be icing on the cake.
Conclusion
Nick Foles is going to make the Chicago Bears a better team offensively. He will win them more games than they would have won under Trubisky. He may even get them to the playoffs in a seemingly weak NFC. But for fantasy, he is not the boon some were hoping for. An upcoming matchup with the Colts' top-ranked pass defense in Week 4 isn't the time to plug him into your lineup either. While he will raise the consistency of the offense, he will not elevate them into the stratosphere so tread carefully.
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