RADIO
This is it. Week 17 of the fantasy football season always seems so far away in early September, but it comes back every year before any of us are ready.
For those of you that won championships or somehow managed to scrape your way to a top finish in your league last week, many congratulations are in order.
There are still a good number of you who are fighting to win the championship in Week 17 though, so we will take a look at another group of troubling players one more time, and check back to see if the players from last week can be put to rest or if they will be resurfacing for one last big showing to close the year.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Heed the Warning Signs
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET) – Low-Medium Warning Level
Matthew Stafford has now thrown only one touchdown pass in three of his last four games, and has thrown a total of only five touchdowns versus four interceptions in that same span. In the back half of the season since the team’s bye, Stafford has only thrown three touchdowns in a game one time, after doing so twice in his first six games. Since a huge outing in Week 13, his yardage has also tailed off in the past three games, with his 203 yards in Week 16 marking Stafford’s second lowest total in a game all year. His yardage has now dropped in each game since Week 14, and with the Lions now officially eliminated from playoff contention, fantasy owners can’t be confident that this trend will turn around in a game that won’t mean much.
Despite head coach Jim Caldwell stating that he won’t rest his starters, it has been difficult to watch Stafford hobble his way towards the end of the season, and there is no guarantee that he plays a full game on Sunday which presents an even bigger risk for those giving him consideration. If Stafford makes it through the whole game, he will have a favorable matchup with a Green Bay defense that he passed for over 350 yards against in Week 9. With the multiple injuries and declining production though, this isn’t something that owners can bank on happening again.
Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN) – Medium Warning Level
Latavius Murray has settled in nicely as the Minnesota Vikings’ early down back in recent weeks, which has come at the expense of Jerick McKinnon’s fantasy production. While the touches had been pretty evenly split since coming out of the team’s Week 9 bye, Murray has now had back-to-back games with 20 or more touches, while McKinnon has had only 24 touches combined in those two games. Football in December and January is a completely different beast than the rest of the year, and this albeit short trend could be signaling what the Vikings will try to do from here on out to close the season, which could create problems for Week 17 fantasy championship hopefuls.
With Murray taking control of most of the early down work, the majority of McKinnon’s fantasy utility had been sustained by his ability to get large chunks in the passing game, but unfortunately this too has shrunk as of late as well. In the first four games after Dalvin Cook went down, McKinnon racked up 40 receiving ypg on 20 total catches. Even with a seven catch 114-yard explosion in Week 15, McKinnon is averaging just 30 receiving ypg with 23 catches in the seven games since. McKinnon does present relatively solid upside, but despite the fact that his monster receiving game came just two weeks ago it will be a shaky road for fantasy owners who are hoping for a replicate performance from McKinnon in Week 17, with his usage in both the rushing and passing attack headed in the wrong direction.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE) – Medium Warning Level
It was more or less expected that Brandin Cooks would be a boom or bust fantasy receiver in a Patriots offense that that features Rob Gronkowski as the top pass catcher, with several capable running backs catching passes out of the backfield as well. As we make our way into the final week of the fantasy season though, Cooks has put up more duds than anything else the past few weeks, which should be a cause for concern for owners who are rolling him out in a game that is for all of the marbles. Since scoring in back to back games in Weeks 11 and 12, Cooks has scored just one touchdown the past four weeks, which has highlighted the glaringly low yardage totals in those games. After averaging a shade under 80 yards per game through the first 12 weeks of the season, Cooks’ yardage high the past four games has been just 60 yards, and he was held to under 20 yards in two of those matchups.
Cooks’ volume hasn’t been particularly high all season, but after catching at least four passes for a seven-week stretch in the middle of the season, Cooks has now caught just seven passes combined in his last three games, with a one-catch effort in Week 14. Cooks has the ability to blow up in any given matchup, and you certainly don’t want that production to happen on your bench in the final week of the season. Unfortunately though, Cooks will likely continue to be an all-or-nothing play as he has been to close out the season, and will present a big risk for those trying to bring home a championship.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND) – Low Warning Level
Jack Doyle had provided a steady hand at the tight end position for the majority of the season, but in the past few weeks he has become very difficult to rely on. The seven catch per game average that Doyle had enjoyed throughout the middle chunk of the season has now dropped to just over four catches a game in his past three matchups, with a season-low two catches for four yards just two weeks ago.
Doyle still remains a target monster, and has seen lower than five targets only twice all season. The production just hasn’t corresponded with his involvement in the offense though, and he is catching only 56% of his passes over the past three weeks. Despite the mediocrity Doyle has displayed towards the end of the season, he could put together a solid outing against the Titans’ defense that is among the worst in the league defending the tight end position, but it is hard to have much confidence in him and the listless Colts’ offense, that hasn’t scored more than 16 points since Week 10.
Updates From Last Week
Alex Smith (QB, KC) – Lower Warning Level Than Last Week
Alex Smith pushed past the 300-yard mark for the fifth time this season en-route to a solid fantasy day, although he only added one touchdown pass. Smith owners won’t be able to deploy him for the rest of this fantasy season though, as the Chiefs have locked up their division and will give rookie Patrick Mahomes a shot at some regular season action. Smith not playing this weekend will likely knock him out of the top three position he has occupied all year, but he should still finish in the top 10 for the best fantasy finish of his career.
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) – Higher Warning Level
Lamar Miller had another less than stellar performance, but he was at least able to climb back to the 60 or so ypg floor that eluded him in Week 15. Unfortunately, Miller’s prior ineffectiveness has led the Texans to give Alfred Blue a significant amount of touches in back-to-back weeks, with Blue playing 11 more snaps and getting five more touches than Miller in Week 16. So now on top of the average fantasy production that Miller has offered all year, fantasy owners will have to deal with a committee backfield in which Miller no longer dominates touches. The comprehensive reasoning for this change is unclear, but it does make Miller’s potential fantasy production extremely volatile, and he likely one of the riskiest options on your roster.
Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
Jordy Nelson was unable to finish the Green Bay Packers’ Week 16 game with a shoulder injury, and the early word this week is that he is unlikely to play in the season finale. This is certainly a disappointing end to a disappointing fantasy season for Nelson, who is currently in line for one of his worst fantasy finishes with his lowest totals across the board since his second season in Green Bay.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) - Higher Warning Level Than Last Week
Jimmy Graham picked the worst possible part of the season to start slumping, as his three yards on Sunday is actually the highest yardage output he has had in the past three weeks. Fortunately for fantasy owners, that one three-yard catch he made also happened to be a touchdown. But it will be both very hard to trust or bench Graham in the final week of the season, as he hasn’t shown much of anything over the past month or so, but still offers the most upside out of any other option that will be available at this point.
