December 21, 2017

RotoBaller's Brittany Smith looks at players sending out warning signals that you should be concerned about heading into Week 16 of the fantasy football season.

To those of you that are playing for a championship in Week 16, well done, you have reached the heights that we all set out for way back in August and September.

Now is the time to go with your gut and make the roster decisions to end all roster decisions and put yourself in the best position to make all of that hard work pay off, no pressure or anything.

Even if you are only playing for pride at this point and trying to dodge a last place finish, you have come too far and invested too much to get lax with your roster decisions now. This week we will look closer at specific Week 16 matchups for the players that could become a problem this weekend, and decide if the players that were concerning last week should be back in the rotation or remain on the bench for the rest of the season.

Heed the Warning Signs

Alex Smith (QB, KC) – Low – Medium Warning Level

Since opening the season with seven touchdown passes and nearly 800 passing yards in his first three games Smith has come back down to earth, and as of late has been much more of the player many expected him to be heading in to the season. In the past five games, Smith has thrown only five touchdowns, and in two of those games he was held without a score altogether. And after not throwing an interception for the first eight weeks of the season, Smith's touchdown to interception rate has also dropped to 7:4 since the team's Week 10 bye.

Smith has been the definition of boom or bust at the quarterback position, much like the Kansas City Chiefs' offense as a whole. In the four games that he has thrown for more than 300 yards, he has thrown at least three touchdowns to go with, without any interceptions. All of his picks have come in those ten remaining games that he has played this season, in which he only has three multi-touchdown efforts. On a positive note Smith has continued to scramble and pick up rushing yards at every opportunity he gets, and although he only has one rushing touchdown on the season, that yardage certainly hasn't hurt any. His overall numbers still have him ranked in the top 5, but it has been a tale of two halves of the season for Smith, who doesn't seem to be playing with the same confidence he opened the season with. Smith should continue to be serviceable, but his up and down play this season means if you are in need of an upside play, Smith might not be your guy anymore, as he seems to have left his monster games back in the first half of the season.

Lamar Miller (RB, HOU) - Medium Warning Level

Lamar Miller's production has declined slightly in recent weeks, but the benchmark for his production wasn't set all that high to begin with. His 3.6 yards per carry is a career worst, and he has only managed to break off one run of 20 yards or more all year (his lowest total since his rookie season) after popping seven such plays last season. He has been unable to top 60 rushing yards in four straight weeks, with his season high 75 rushing yards coming way back in Week 4.

Miller had presented a relatively safe floor this season, and before the Texans' blow-out loss in Jacksonville in Week 15 Miller had seen no fewer than 12 touches in any matchup, while averaging just under 19 touches per game on the year. What quickly nullified his effectiveness in Week 15 was a game script that got out of hand early, which is in part why Miller is so concerning heading into Week 16. With a matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers who have hit their offensive stride over the past several weeks, this contest too could be over before it begins, again making Miller a potential non-factor when owners need his production the most. If the Texans can keep it close and Miller is afforded the same volume he has enjoyed for the majority of the season, he should be a relatively safe play, but if this one gets away from the Texans, fantasy owners could be left without anything for a second week in a row.

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB) – High Warning Level

With the Green Bay Packers eliminated from playoff contention, the team has officially shut down quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the rest of the season. This means that Jordy Nelson and the offense will have to work with Brett Hundley for the duration. While Hundley has showed modest improvement throughout his time on the field this year, this could spell trouble for the rest of Nelson's fantasy season. It has been a long time since Nelson caught a touchdown pass, and it has been just as long since he topped 60 receiving yards in a game, in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively. In the seven full games that Nelson has played with Hundley, he has only accumulated 153 yards on 25 catches, without any touchdown catches. His best game during that stretch was a four catch 35-yard effort, which doesn't come close to the type of production owners were hoping for from Nelson this year.

His string of single digit fantasy points in all scoring formats has now stretched over the past eight weeks, and with a divisional matchup against the formidable Vikings' secondary, that streak could continue in Week 16 as well. Even if Hundley’s clear go-to receiver Davante Adams is forced to miss the game due to a concussion, Nelson hasn't been reliable at any point in the entire back half of the season, and there hasn't been much reassurance that there will be a change in the remaining two games. As he has been during Hundley's entire tenure this season, Nelson is a very risky start that offers next to no upside the next couple of weeks, which is a dangerous proposition for those trying to pick up a championship this weekend.

Jimmy Graham - (TE, SEA) - Low Warning Level

Jimmy Graham started the season slowly, but quickly got back in sync with Russell Wilson, catching at least one touchdown pass for six out of seven games coming out of a Week 6 bye. While fantasy owners certainly enjoyed that stretch and are hoping that Graham can end his two-game touchdown drought in Week 16, the bigger concern is the puzzling lack of usage that Graham has seen in recent weeks. Since a seven catch, 58-yard effort in Week 11, Graham's targets, catches, and yardage have all declined in each game since. Since that Week 11 performance when Graham saw 11 targets, he has combined for only 15 in the four games since.

Graham has had particularly poor outings in the past two weeks, with no catches in Week 14 and one catch for minus one yard in Week 15. These recent performances have made him extremely hard to trust, but at this point in the season it will be just about impossible to find someone that can match his upside from the waiver wire. Fantasy owners without alternative options can take a bit of solace in the fact that Graham has a plus matchup heading in to Week 16 against a Dallas Cowboys defense that is ranked in the bottom half of the league defending tight ends. Hopefully Graham has enough left in him to shake off this mini-slump and bounce back to finish the season strong.

Updates From Last Week

Kirk Cousins (QB, WASH) – Same Warning Level as Last Week 

Kirk Cousins was held under 200 passing yards for the second game in a row, although he was able to toss two touchdown passes without any interceptions. This was another run-of-the-mill game for Cousins, whose fantasy season seems to have fallen victim to the state of everything that is falling apart around him. Although Cousins has shown the ability to be able to do much more, he has been unable to consistently reach the same peaks he did last year. For the remainder of this season, Cousins will likely provide the type of production that won't lose you a week, but might not give you the boom you need to win a week either.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) – Same Warning Level as Last Week

DeMarco Murray's final stat line from Sunday mirrored those of the past few weeks. In Week 15 Murray again failed to rush for at least 60 yards, was held without a rushing or receiving touchdown for the third straight week, and wasn't able to boost his stats with his work in the short passing game. Murray has offered very little all season, and his play over the past few weeks doesn’t provide much optimism that it will turn around during the fantasy playoffs. He will have a tilt with one of the poorer rush defenses in the league in the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, but even in a favorable matchup it will be hard to trust Murray, and owners will be keeping their fingers crossed that he can find the end zone to make him a worthwhile play.

Mike Evans (WR, TB) – Lower Warning Level Than Last Week 

Mike Evans had his best fantasy day since Week 7, hauling in a tough contested touchdown pass and five catches for 79 yards. This yardage output is more than he had in his last two games combined, and his eight targets are also the most he's seen since Week 12. Evans is trending in the right direction, but there is no telling if he will continue to benefit from any sustained consistency at the quarterback position, and if this will hold up for the next few games. Evans’ matchups over the next couple of games are against divisional foes that have each played him tough once already this year, but if the volume and red zone targets keep coming his way he should at least able to offer a solid floor with intriguing upside.

Vernon Davis (TE, WASH) – Higher Warning Level Than Last Week

Despite logging 92% of the Reskins' offensive snaps, Vernon Davis still only managed to haul in two passes for the third straight game, while gathering only 26 receiving yards on four targets with a fumble. With his prospects for catching a touchdown not all that encouraging, (he hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 11) Davis is quickly heading towards unstartable territory. Even with the desolate production the tight end position has offered all season, you would probably be better off seeking alternative options if there are any, because Davis' numbers could be just what sinks your team when you need the win the most.

More Week 16 Lineup Prep