RADIO
We are somehow already entering Week 11, and there is only a little over a quarter of the fantasy season left. There is very little room for error now, as trade deadlines are now imminent with playoffs set to begin in just a few short weeks. That means that there is no time to waste in digesting the players that are sending out warnings heading into the week.
Since I missed Week 10’s warning signals, we will check in on the players that were giving owners headaches back in Week 9, as well as look at a brand new crop of players that could become problematic as you make your way through the home stretch.
To see where these players fall in our expert rankings for Week 11, check our Overall Player Rankings lists for Standard, PPR, and Half-PPR.
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Heed the Warning Signs
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) - Low Warning Level
Dak Prescott’s passing numbers have never been eye-opening; he has been under 200 yards passing in three games this season and only has two 300-yard passing outings in 25 games. Still, he has been able to put up impressive fantasy scores as a key cog in a potent offense, and very rarely turns the ball over. In Week 10 however, the first full game that Prescott has played without Ezekiel Elliott in his young career, the entire offense was out of sync, and Prescott was only able to lead the offense to one score while turning the ball over twice. Without Elliott around to help the offense move the ball up and down the field at will, Prescott struggled to get much going against an improving but still inconsistent Falcons defense. Were it not for his rushing touchdown in the second quarter, it would have been a disastrous day for fantasy owners.
Prescott is one of the better young quarterbacks in the league, but his Week 10 performance could provide a glimpse in to what the next five games without Elliott could look like. In addition to being without their star running back, the Cowboys’ left tackle Tyron Smith’s status is also up in the air, and top receiver Dez Bryant has been battling knee and ankle injuries for the past couple of weeks. Prescott’s floor will remain solid with his ability to run the zone read, and the threat to score a rushing touchdown at any point during the game still very much alive. Without Elliott in the backfield though, the entire Dallas offense could be in much more trouble than expected. Prescott has shown he can be a top five quarterback behind good pass blocking and when opposing defenses are keying in on stopping Elliott, but just how much he can offer when the conditions are less than ideal remains to be seen.
Doug Martin (RB, TB) - Medium Warning Level
After getting off to a hot start and scoring in back to back weeks coming off of a suspension, Doug Martin has cooled off considerably. Since his initial outburst in his return, he has averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, and has only accumulated 58 total rushing yards over his last two contests. In his first two games his low yardage totals were propped up with some relative activity in the passing game, but even that has gone away as he has only caught one ball for four yards in the last three games. The Buccaneers’ offense was already struggling with a gimpy Jameis Winston at the helm, but they grinded to a complete stop in Week 10 with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the start, and didn’t get into the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The word out of Tampa Bay is that Winston could indeed come back to finish the season, but it is still unclear when exactly that would be. If the Buccaneers have to play too many more games with Fitzpatrick under center, Martin could see his opportunities shrink if the team is forced to play the majority of their games in come-from-behind mode.
Despite the team’s inconsistency throughout the course of the season though, Martin’s work load has been exceptional, and even with an eight-touch outing against the Saints in Week 9 he is still averaging 16 touches per contest. The schedule also eases up a bit for Martin over the next few games, with two of his next three games against rush defenses that are far and away among the worst in the league. Owners will be hoping that Martin can take advantage of this favorable stretch, but even with this optimism Martin will be a tough start and might not warrant much more than a flex play with moderate upside.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAR) – Low Warning Level
Since racking up a season-high 138 receiving yards in Week 4, Keenan Allen has only gone over 50 yards two times in his past five games. He has also been held without a touchdown since Week 1, and hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Week 6. Additionally, his quarterback Phillip Rivers is now in concussion protocol, and if he is not cleared by Sunday, Allen will be forced to try to turn it around with Kellen Clemens.
While Allen’s 63% catch percentage certainly isn’t setting the league on fire, he could be doing a lot worse, and this doesn’t seem to be the driving factor in Allen’s sagging production. His volume has also remained in-tact, and Allen is one of the most targeted receivers in the league with just under nine targets per game. In addition to not having any fewer than five targets in any game this season, he has seen double digit targets in four of his 10 games, so the relative lack of production is somewhat puzzling. While the recent emergence of Austin Ekeler isn’t likely to meaningfully eat into much of Melvin’s Gordon volume, he could gradually start to take targets away from some of the receivers, particularly Allen who has worked out of the slot for half of his snaps. Allen is still the Chargers best receiver, but unless he can find the end zone again soon, he will be hard to trust with much confidence outside of PPR formats.
Cameron Brate (TE, TB) – Medium Warning Level
Cameron Brate opened the season strong, catching a touchdown in four of the Buccaneers’ first five games, while averaging 64 yards per game during that stretch. Since Week 6 though, Brate’s fantasy production has been on the decline, and he has hauled in just two passes for 19 yards in his past two games with no touchdown. Both his target share and snap percentage have fallen since then as well, and he has been out-snapped by rookie O.J. Howard four of the past five weeks.
Brate’s outlook for the foreseeable future doesn’t look much better, as Winston’s availability for the rest of the year is uncertain. The offense as a whole hasn’t lived up to expectations on the year, and as long as Fitzpatrick is under center there might not be enough production to go around for the team’s top receivers, let alone a tight end that was already splitting time in the first place. Brate very well could turn it around, but even if he does his consistency will likely be in question for the rest of the season. He has a great Week 11 matchup on tap against a Dolphins defense that has given up a touchdown to a tight end in all but three of their games this year, but if Brate isn’t able to show signs that he can get back on track, it could be time to consider alternate streaming options.
Updates From Last Week
Drew Brees (QB, NO) – Higher Warning Level
Drew Brees was efficient last week Sunday, completing 72% of his passes while adding his second rushing touchdown of the season. However, he also only threw for 184 yards on a season-low 25 passes, and didn’t need to throw any touchdowns for his team to coast to a 37-point victory. While Brees did score on the ground, this is not something that owners can rely on every week to boost otherwise single digit fantasy scores. The reality of the situation is that New Orleans is playing great football on both sides of the ball right now, and with a defense that hasn’t given up more than 12 points in the past three games and a rushing attack that has scored eight touchdowns in that same time span, Brees numbers could potentially stay within the range of mediocrity for the rest of the season.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK) – Same Warning Level
Before the Oakland Raiders’ Week 10 bye, Marshawn Lynch had his best of the game of the season, as he scored twice and topped 50 yards for just the third time all season. Lynch will now face the Patriots in Week 11, and while their defense got off to a rough start to open the season, the team has slowly been righting the ship. After giving up two rushing scores in Week 1, the Patriots have only allowed two total rushing touchdowns to running backs in the eight games since. Even with Lynch offering up some hope before they bye, the prospects for his fantasy production are still more or less the same, and owners will be relying on a touchdown to make him a worthwhile start.
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN) - Lower Warning Level
While Brock Osweiler hasn’t been much of an upgrade over Trever Siemian for the Denver offense as a whole, the quarterback change has suited Demaryius Thomas quite well. In his two games with Osweiler this season, Thomas has finally hauled in his first two touchdowns of the year, and has been the WR10 for the past two weeks after being ranked outside of the top 40 all season long. His targets have also remained plentiful, with 20 total over the past two game. As long as Osweiler remains under center and the Broncos’ defense continues to struggle, there should be plenty of room for Thomas to continue with this improved production.
Martellus Bennett (TE, NE) - Same Warning Level
Over the span of a week, Martellus Bennett was cut from a team that has one of the worst quarterback situations in the league, and was promptly picked right back up by the high octane New England Patriots offense that he won a Super Bowl with last year. There still seems to be some uncertainty surrounding Bennett and the health of his shoulder, but he was on the field for the Patriots on Sunday night, and nearly matched the yardage total of his last two games with the Packers in the first half. Although his outlook for the rest of the season is much improved, he will stay play second fiddle to Rob Gronkowski, and determining when to start him will be just as difficult as it was in Green Bay. He will likely remain a dicey, low-floor option.
