RADIO
It is now Week 9, and fantasy owners are either making their push for the playoffs, or tailoring their rosters with the confidence that their playoff spot is more or less locked down. That means that every roster decision becomes all the more important both this week and for the rest of the season, with little time to waste and very little wiggle room for error.
This week we will look at four players who have been trending in the wrong direction the past few weeks, as well as check in with the players that were already walking the thin line last week.
To see where these players fall in our expert rankings for Week 9, check our Overall Player Rankings lists for Standard, PPR, and Half-PPR.
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Heed the Warning Signs
Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Low Warning Level
The fact that Drew Brees’ production has been trending downward since coming out of the Saints’ bye in Week 5 has gotten somewhat lost in the shuffle. The two-headed rushing attack of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara has been dominant, and a defense with a penchant for making big plays has the Saints off to their best start in several seasons, which is all that anyone has been able to talk about. All of a sudden, New Orleans has something that they haven’t had consistently for the past couple of seasons, a complete team. Last season the Saints passed 63% of the time, the fifth highest in the league. A poor defense that was consistently getting gashed created many shootout games for the Saints offense, and Brees attempted a league-high 42 passes per game, with more than 40 pass attempts in 10 out of 16 games. This year, with a much improved defense that is currently tied for 11th in takeaways, Brees is down to 35 passes per game, which has subsequently resulted in nearly 50 less passing yards per game as well.
Since the Week 5 bye, the aforementioned running back tandem has combined for 454 rushing yards, 175 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in three games. In that same span, Brees has only thrown three total touchdowns versus four interceptions, and Week 8 marked the first time that Brees didn’t have at least one passing touchdown in a game dating back to Week 14 of last season. The Saints are finally able to win games without Brees having to force the issue, and his fantasy production has fielded a significant hit as a result. There will likely still be games where the Saints have to rely heavily on Brees’ arm as they did last year. However, as long as the Saints are able to put games on ice with their run game and opportunistic defense they will continue to do so, which means that Brees’ elite quarterback production could be in jeopardy for the rest of this season.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, OAK) – Medium Warning Level
Marshawn Lynch has provided the Raiders and the city of Oakland with an intangible, undeniable spark. What he has offered fantasy teams on the other hand, has been uneven production with very little upside. We expected Lynch to be fairly touchdown dependent heading in to the year, but the inconsistency has been pretty tough to deal with. On top of losing a game and a half worth of opportunity due to an ejection and consequent suspension, Lynch has topped 50 rushing yards in only two games this season. Running behind an offensive line that has opened up very little for the run game, he has also only scored twice all season, and all of this adds up to very little cumulative production from someone that had a fairly decent outlook heading in to the season.
Fortunately for Lynch, without him in the lineup in Week 8 the offense didn’t look any better, and the two backs that replaced him didn’t put themselves in a position to pilfer any of his work. Despite the fear that the Raiders would severely curb Lynch’s workload until the end of the year, he has averaged 12 touches in six full games. The Raiders are in win-now mode and don’t have any time to waste if they have any shot of making the playoffs, so his volume should remain in-tact and he could even see a slight bump which certainly wouldn’t hurt. Still, without the line blocking as well as they did last year, and the offense in the red zone almost two fewer times per game, it will be hard for Lynch to offer consistent production down the stretch. Hopefully the Raiders can figure out what is holding the offense back and get Lynch more scoring opportunities, because it looks like he won’t be able to offer much more outside of that.
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN) – Medium Warning Level
Demaryius Thomas is currently one of only three receivers ranked in the top 50 that has yet to make a touchdown grab all season. Thomas currently ranks as the WR43 in fantasy, following a WR19 finish last season, and the complete lack of touchdown production is a big part of the reason why. To make matters worse, Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph announced this week that Brock Osweiler will get the start at quarterback in Week 9. While Osweiler does have a history of performing well with the Broncos and Thomas in particular, a mid-season change at quarterback is rarely a good sign for an offense. Thomas has had a couple of huge yardage totals in two games this season, but has been held under 75 yards in his five other games, and again, not a single touchdown in seven outings.
A lack of viable receivers on offense outside of Emmanuel Sanders ensures that Thomas’ volume remains secure, and there is also the undeniable possibility that his past chemistry with Osweiler leads to more production over the back half of the season. The entire offensive unit has been on the decline since their Week 5 bye though, scoring just 29 points in three games, and relying on Osweiler to turn that around is a dangerous game. While he has been relatively consistent, the uncertainty at quarterback offers very little upside for Thomas, and there is just no telling what kind of production can be expected going forward. Outside of PPR formats, Thomas is a dicey play that will be hard to trust as more than a WR3/flex player unless he and Osweiler can somehow rekindle their 2015 magic.
Martellus Bennett (TE, GB) – High Warning Level
Martellus Bennett was already a tough play even when Aaron Rodgers was still in at quarterback for the Packers, but with Brett Hundley in for the foreseeable future the outlook for the tight end doesn’t look like it will turn around, explaining his second appearance on the list. In five full games with Rodgers Bennett’s catch percentage was 66%, down from 75% last season, but he was still averaging 6.2 targets per game and saw no fewer than six targets in three of those games. While his production was disappointing, there was still some hope that if he was able to get in sync with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he could put up some big games at any moment. In two full outings with Hundley, Bennett has seen four and three targets respectively, and has totaled just 39 yards in those contests.
The Packers offense has passed the ball over 60% of the time for the past two seasons, but when Rodgers missed eight games in 2013, the team was notably down to just 55%. The same could happen for the rest of this year, as Hundley is still very much unproven and has thrown four interceptions in two games. With a solid stable of young running backs, for the first time in a long time the Packers might opt to lean heavily on their run game. Between helping with run blocking, and pass protection for a quarterback that is struggling mightily against the blitz, the amount of routes Bennett is asked to run might dip even further. This could be the final dagger in what little production Bennett offered, and he might just be safe to leave on waivers for the rest of the season.
Updates From Last Week
Cam Newton (QB, CAR) – Higher Warning Level Than Last Week
For the third time this season, Cam Newton failed to reach at least 200 passing yards in a game, and added an interception and just one touchdown pass to his final stat line. Despite the juicy matchup against the second worst pass defense in the league, had it not been for his 44 rushing yards, Newton’s fantasy day would have been just about unforgivable. He will also be going forward without one of his most targeted receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, who was traded to the Bills before this week’s deadline. Newton will continue to be boom/bust for the rest of the season, and while his boom games will be a thing of beauty, he is currently trending downward and could very well hover around mediocre or just below more often than not.
Frank Gore (RB, IND) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
A week after being held under 10 touches for the first time all season, Frank Gore was able to put together a very solid game, which has unfortunately become all too rare this season. Although he was held out of the end zone for a fifth straight week, Gore topped 80 rushing yards on over five yards per carry for the first time all season, and added 19 more yards on four catches. While the 20 total touches are certainly very encouraging, rookie Marlon Mack has proven that he will continue to be a hindrance for Gore. Mack had a season high 14 touches of his own, and out-snapped Gore for the second straight week. With Mack continuing to be a factor and the Colts not projected to dole out 34 touches to the backfield on a weekly basis, Gore’s fantasy production might not be out of the woods just yet. He will likely still struggle to get back to the type of consistency that he had previously shown in his time in Indianapolis.
Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI) – Same Warning Level as Last Week
Alshon Jeffery was dangerously close to another devastating fantasy performance before he streaked deep down the right sideline to haul in a 53-yard touchdown pass for his first score since Week 4. Despite the huge play, Jeffery’s outlook doesn’t look much improved from last week, as he still only managed to haul in two of his eight targets, and had only one catch for nine yards and a two-point conversion before catching the fourth quarter bomb. It is clear that tight end Zach Ertz is the team’s top weapon, particularly in the red zone, where he is currently ranked 12th out of all tight ends and wide receivers in targets. The Eagles also boast one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, and it is not out of the realm of possibility that LeGarrette Blount and new addition Jay Ajayi see more and more work as we head in to November and December. Jeffery is still being targeted heavily and probably will remain so throughout the rest of the season, but until he can improve his catch percentage, his ability to offer solid weekly upside will remain in question.
Zach Miller (TE, CHI)
Zach Miller suffered a horrific knee injury that was difficult for football fans to watch, as he was trying to reel in a touchdown pass against the Saints on Sunday. It is unlikely that Miller returns this season, so we will hold off on any further review of Miller and wish him a speedy and successful recovery.
