August 25, 2016

Andrew analyzes how the trend of running back by committees has changed the fantasy landscape and how to find the best value at the running back position in your fantasy football drafts

Workhorse Backs Are Now A Rare Breed

The days of the workhorse running back in the NFL are gone. Long, long gone. Blasphemy, you say? Let's consult the raw numbers on this one.

From 2006-2013, at least 22 running backs carried the ball 200 or more times in each season except 2011, when the total dipped to 19. Over that same eight-year span, an average of more than five backs per season eclipsed the 300-carry plateau.

Compare that to 2014, when only 17 backs tallied 200-plus carries, and in 2015, that number shrunk to only 15, the lowest total over the last 10 seasons. Only three players have surpassed 300 carries over the last two seasons combined.

Carries are the lifeblood of fantasy running backs. Carries mean opportunities, and opportunities mean fantasy points. So, if running backs are getting fewer and fewer carries each season, why are they still being ranked among the top players in fantasy football? Wouldn't it be safer to grab an elite tight end in Rob Gronkowski or a stud wide receiver in the first round? The answer is ... it depends.

If you want to go Gronkowski or wide receivers early in your drafts, no one will fault you. But there is still running back value to be mined -- you just have to know where to dig for it.

Handcuff vs. Committee

The first, and arguably most important, step to finding value at running back is identifying whether a team's backup is a handcuff (clear backup) to the starter, or part of a backfield committee.

A running back handcuff will spend the majority of his time on the bench behind an entrenched starter. Handcuffs are labeled as such because their value is directly tied to the player they're backing up. Think of them as an insurance policy -- you'll only need them should the starter miss time due to injury, suspension or a large decline in ability. Backfield committees are more complicated, and considerably more frustrating. In a true committee, multiple backs get touches throughout each game, opportunities varying based on a multitude of factors, including game flow, recent performance and the matchup.

Committees can evolve into handcuff situations and vice versa, so it's important to keep up to date on injuries and trends. We can use the 2015 Atlanta Falcons as a case study in this. Second-year back Devonta Freeman and rookie Tevin Coleman entered training camp in a competition for the starting job. A preseason injury to Freeman gave Coleman the job by default, but an injury to Coleman opened the door for Freeman in Week 3. He seized it and became one of fantasy's most valuable entities. What began as a committee quickly shifted to a handcuff situation, with wise Freeman owners scooping up Coleman as insurance.

How To Tell The Difference

Some situations will be fairly obvious, while others will be more complex. There are a few questions to ask that will help in this process.

Can the starting running back reasonably be expected to touch the ball at least 15-20 times per game? Is the starter involved in the passing game? Does the starter get the majority of the goal-line carries? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, the chances are high that the starter dominates the backfield touches, and that his backup is a handcuff option.

Alternatively, does the team have a separate pass-catching back it turns to on third downs and other obvious passing situations? Does the team spread its goal-line carries around? Are the starter's touches inconsistent on a week-to-week basis? If the answer to these questions is yes, then you're likely looking at a committee approach.

A Look At This Season's Backfields

Let's apply these questions to this year's crop of fantasy running backs and see what we get:

Clear starters with handcuffs (12)
Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson (Jerick McKinnon)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Le'Veon Bell (DeAngelo Williams)
Los Angeles Rams: Todd Gurley (Benny Cunningham)
Arizona Cardinals: David Johnson (Chris Johnson)
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott (Darren McFadden/Alfred Morris)
Atlanta Falcons: Devonta Freeman (Tevin Coleman)
New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram (Tim Hightower)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin (Charles Sims)
Houston Texans: Lamar Miller (Alfred Blue)
Oakland Raiders: Latavius Murray (DeAndre Washington)
Indianapolis Colts: Frank Gore (Robert Turbin)
Buffalo Bills: LeSean McCoy (Mike Gillislee/Reggie Bush)

Possible handcuffs or committees (11)
Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles (Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West)
Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy (James Starks)
Denver Broncos: C.J. Anderson (Ronnie Hillman)
Seattle Seahawks: Thomas Rawls (Christine Michael/C.J. Prosise)
New York Jets: Matt Forte (Bilal Powell)
Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart (Cameron Artis-Payne)
San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde (Shaun Draughn)
Miami Dolphins: Arian Foster (Jay Ajayi)
Tennessee Titans: DeMarco Murray (Derrick Henry)
Chicago Bears: Jeremy Langford (Jacquizz Rodgers/Ka'Deem Carey)
Washington Redskins: Matt Jones (Chris Thompson)

Clear committees (9)
New England Patriots: LeGarrette Blount/James White/Brandon Bolden
Cincinnati Bengals: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard
Philadelphia Eagles: Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles/Wendell Smallwood
Baltimore Ravens: Justin Forsett/Javorius Allen/Terrance West
Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Yeldon/Chris Ivory
New York Giants: Rashad Jennings/Shane Vereen
San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead
Cleveland Browns: Isaiah Crowell/Duke Johnson
Detroit Lions: Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick

Some of these scenarios will continue to change before the start of the regular season, whether because of injuries, preseason performances or other circumstances. But as it stands right now in late August, about a third of the NFL's teams have a clear "workhorse" (by today's standards), while another third of the league has a clear committee. The other third could go either way.

The days of 300-carry seasons for running backs are essentially extinct, but the position still holds fantasy value, and being able to decipher which backfields will provide fantasy value and which backfields will prove to be fantasy headaches is key to selecting the most valuable running backs on draft day.

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