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Dave's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 12 of 2024. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint.
Week 11 was pretty kind to us in this space. We correctly labeled Justin Herbert as a boom pick. He threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 65 yards on the ground. It culminated with a QB8 finish. We also nailed Kirk Cousins and Tony Pollard as busts. Cousins and the Falcons offense were abysmal last week in Denver. He threw for 173 yards, had no touchdowns, and had an interception. He was the QB27 on the week. Pollard just couldn’t find any traction against a stifling Minnesota Vikings defense. He only ran for 15 yards on nine carries and finished Week 11 as the RB39. It wasn’t all good, though. Nick Chubb and Dawson Knox were a few of our other boom calls. Both flopped in good matchups and neither one made much of an impact. Chubb was particularly disappointing as he should have fared much better against a terrible Saints rush defense. Maybe he just isn’t the same player after his knee injury.
There are an eye-popping six teams on bye this week. The fantasy playoffs are just three weeks away, so every lineup decision is under the microscope. We will do our best to identify the correct moves for you this week. Whether it’s sticking with a struggling star, starting an unexpected player, or sitting one of your top players, we’ve got you covered. Now, let’s get to all the action.
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Week 12 Fantasy Football Booms
Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Daniels has cooled off following a red-hot start to the season. He has posted two straight games outside of the top 20 quarterbacks and hasn’t posted a top-5 finish since Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals.
Jayden Daniels 🤝 endzone.
4th rushing touchdown on the season for JD5 🔥pic.twitter.com/k2sTnpNIU3
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 29, 2024
It’s been frustrating for his fantasy owners, but this week presents a perfect get-right opportunity. Washington takes on a Dallas Cowboys defense that has been downright awful this year. Per FTN Fantasy, Dallas ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and 29th in defensive passing DVOA. It also allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, per Fantasy Football Today.
Yes, Daniels has slowed down. It might be tempting to sit him, and it’s possible that the rib injury he suffered a few weeks ago is affecting him. While that could be true, this is not the week to send him to your bench. The matchup is too good. If he struggles again this week, then it’s completely fair to have a different conversation regarding Daniels.
For this week, though, start him as a QB1. He still has massive upside and should bounce back against a terrible Dallas defense.
Tua Tagovailoa - QB, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Tagovailoa is coming off a strong performance against the Las Vegas Raiders. He threw three touchdown passes and finished Week 11 as the QB10.
Week Eleven
Tua Tagovailoa Passing TD (8)
to Tyreek Hill (3)
pic.twitter.com/zASsPSQ7Lv— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) November 17, 2024
He draws another favorable matchup this week as Miami faces a New England Patriots defense that ranks 31st in defensive passing DVOA. It’s also a good matchup from a schematic standpoint. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, New England plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. Tagovailoa ranks 12th out of 30 eligible quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback against man coverage.
If your regular starter is out due to byes or you’re steaming the position, then feel free to fire up Tagovailoa. Another QB1 finish is within the range of outcomes.
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Were going back to the well with the Commanders offense this week. Robinson has enjoyed a nice season in 2024 as he’s tied for 10th in the league in rushing touchdowns.
Brian Robinson Jr. powers it in for the @Commanders TD 💪
📺: #WASvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/NO4vKI26B2— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
We previously mentioned the struggles Dallas’ defense has had against opposing quarterbacks. It has been just as bad trying to defend the run. Dallas allows 151 rushing yards per game (second worst in the league) and ranks 27th in defensive rushing DVOA. It has also allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
This is just a great matchup for Robinson. The Commanders are listed as 10.5-point favorites this week, so it’s expected they will be playing from ahead. That would mean plenty of opportunities for Robinson to expose this rush defense. Fire him up as a solid RB2 play as we could see a spike game from Washington’s lead back.
Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
McConkey is fresh off a six-catch, 123-yard performance against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ladd McConkey might be the best rookie WR of this class. Elite separator from all positions, can win at the catch point too. pic.twitter.com/S9zIy5A1c8
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 18, 2024
This week, the rookie receiver has another great opportunity to feast. Los Angeles plays the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. While Baltimore has a stout run defense, its pass defense has been a liability. The Ravens allow the most PPR points per game to opposing receivers and rank dead last in DVOA against wide receivers.
Los Angeles’ ground game will likely struggle against Baltimore’s defensive front. That could force the Chargers to become one-dimensional and go with a pass-heavy attack. This would be great news for McConkey.
Gamers can confidently start him as a strong WR2 play. He’s starting to find his footing and is quickly becoming Justin Herbert’s favorite target. We should see another big game on Monday night.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Busts
J.K. Dobbins - RB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins is coming off another strong week where he ran for two touchdowns and finished Week 11 as the RB10.
JK DOBBINS. GO-AHEAD TD WITH 18 SECONDS LEFT.
📺: #CINvsLAC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ou4r33q38K— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
This week, however, the going could be tough. The aforementioned Baltimore defense has been stellar at stopping its opponents’ rushing attack. Baltimore ranks sixth in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league.
It’s easy to envision a scenario where Los Angeles struggles to get anything going on the ground. Dobbins hasn’t been heavily used as a receiver, so there is major bust potential here if he doesn’t get much rushing production.
Dobbins continues to defy the odds and is the feel-good story of the year. The revenge game narrative here is tempting, but this week is just a bad matchup. If you’ve got other options, try to get him out of your lineup.
Jordan Addison - WR, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Addison had a nice game going last week against the Tennessee Titans before leaving early due to cramps. He caught three passes for 81 yards, including a 47-yard touchdown catch.
Jordan Addison with the TOUCHDOWN🔥
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 17, 2024
The sophomore receiver has a tough draw this week as Chicago’s defense has done well slowing down the opponent’s passing attack. It allows the ninth-fewest passing yards per game and the fewest PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers. Chicago ranks 10th in DVOA against receivers as well. We might not see much in terms of passing output from Minnesota’s offense.
This game currently has the second-lowest projected total for Week 12, according to oddsmakers. That suggests there won’t be a lot of points, and this could be a defensive game. Unless Addison pops for another long touchdown, he probably won’t return much value this week.
Leave him on your bench and look at other options for your pivotal Week 12 matchup.
Matthew Stafford - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Stafford is coming off a four-touchdown performance last week against the New England Patriots. It was his second four-touchdown game of the season and was good to see as he had some poor touchdown luck early in the year.
This week is a much different test as the Rams take on a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has found its groove. Philadelphia allows the third-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. It also boasts a pair of good young cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who could make things tough on Rams receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.
Stafford might look like an appealing option after last week, but this is a much tougher opponent than the Patriots. Gamers would be wise to look elsewhere for a quarterback. This matchup has real bottom-out potential for Stafford.
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