RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 12 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 11 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 11, our biggest risers were Jauan Jennings, Audric Estime, Chuba Hubbard, and Adonai Mitchell. Our biggest fallers were Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, Dallas Goedert, and Brian Thomas Jr. Jennings looked elite once again, firmly putting himself on the WR1 radar for the rest of the season. Sean Payton, meanwhile, made us eat dust by going back to Javonte Williams in Week 11. As far as the fallers go, Pollard's role continues to shrink as long as Tyjae Spears is healthy and playing, while Mostert can be dropped in most leagues.
Chase Brown would be in this article if not for the fact that we discussed his ascension two weeks ago. The same goes for Jennings. Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 12.
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Week 12 Fantasy Football Risers
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are on a bye this week, but that shouldn't stop you from picking up Hill and stashing him for Week 13 and beyond. In Week 11, he showed a glimpse of what we can expect from him for the rest of the season, and it was glorious!
Taysom Hill snap counts yesterday:
QB: 8
RB: 7
TE: 9
WR: 9
D/ST: 11 pic.twitter.com/ZcgJYCZWyU— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 18, 2024
Maybe this usage isn't sustainable, but also maybe it is. The Saints are extremely short-handed right now without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means, Jamaal Williams, and Kendre Miller. Olave, Williams, and Miller may return at some point, but it's also possible they won't. And it appears interim head coach Darren Rizzi likes this guy even more than Dennis Allen (if you can believe that):
#Saints interim HC Darren Rizzi said the coaching staff looked at tape and collectively felt like they needed to get Taysom Hill more involved
Rizzi may love Taysom even more than Dennis Allen did pic.twitter.com/OdRaXutcdu
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 18, 2024
It wasn't just the gadget stuff, though. Hill also posted season-highs in snap share (55%) and route participation rate (60%). His 17 opportunities (rushing and receiving) and 10 targets were both career-highs. Look for his usage to remain elite coming out of the bye.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Odunze saw 10 targets in his first game without former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. He also tied for the team lead in first-read target share (29.6%) and led all Bears receivers with 2.17 yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. The connection with Caleb Williams looked strong in Week 11.
Caleb Williams & Rome Odunze’s connection keeps getting stronger.
Back-to-back plays on a 3 & 19, then a 4th down conversion is building trust & confidence.
The future of these 2 is 📈 pic.twitter.com/X6KFdQQSKO
— Just Another Year Chicago: Bears (@JAYChi_Bears) November 19, 2024
Week 11 was the first time this season that Odunze out-targeted both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen with all three players active. There were only a handful of snaps Odunze was taken off the field, but in general, the Bears ran more three-wide receiver sets with Thomas Brown calling plays than with Waldron. That's good news for Odunze's rest-of-season outlook.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
When Jonnu Smith runs routes this season, he gets targeted. Through 10 games, he has a target rate of 25.9%, per PlayerProfiler. That ranks ninth-best among tight ends. In Week 11, he ran a season-high 35 routes (92.1% route participation rate). And guess what? He was targeted eight times, which resulted in 101 yards and two touchdowns.
Jonnu really said see ya 👋
📺 #LVvsMIA on @NFLonCBS & @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/YbSuyFfsuz
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 17, 2024
Since Week 7 (after the Dolphins' bye), Smith has been more heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Per Fantasy Points Data, he leads all Dolphins receivers in yards per route run (2.63) by a large margin and is second on the team in first-read target share (21.9%), behind only Tyreek Hill (23.8%).
Needless to say, Smith is a must-start tight end going forward given his more robust role and his ability to command targets in an offense that has put up at least 27 points in each of its last four games with Tua Tagovailoa under center.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf's return in Week 11 was supposed to turn JSN back into a pumpkin, but that wasn't the case. Instead, JSN looked very much like a 1A/1B situation with Metcalf, with Tyler Lockett a very distant third option in the passing game. If wide receiver guru Matt Harmon thinks it's a big deal, so should you:
We've seen what I'll call more intentional usage for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent games. The fact that we got that type of deployment once again coming out of the bye and with DK Metcalf back in the lineup feels like a big deal. pic.twitter.com/p9krXPTymV
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 18, 2024
JSN never eclipsed 63 receiving yards in any one game in his rookie season. This season, he's eclipsed the century mark three times, including doing so in each of his last two games. The chemistry between Smith-Njigba and Geno Smith appears to be growing every week, and JSN is being given more opportunities than ever to thrive.
Through 10 games, Smith-Njigba is the WR17 in fantasy points per game (14.8). That's ahead of Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, and Darnell Mooney. Keep plugging him into your lineups with confidence.
Other Risers: Jerry Jeudy, Roschon Johnson, Cam Akers, Will Dissly
Week 12 Fantasy Football Fallers
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Jones suffered a rib injury in Week 10 but was able to return to the game. Despite being completely off the injury report in Week 11, he was very much in a backfield committee with Cam Akers. He went from having a 76% RB opportunity share in Week 9 (before the injury) to just a 57% RB opportunity share this past weekend. And it wasn't pretty for Jones in Week 11:
LOWEST graded #Vikings @ Titans
- RB Aaron Jones & S Josh Metellus (29.7)
- WR Jalen Nailor (36.6)
- RG Dalton Risner (50.0)
- TE TJ Hockenson (50.9)
- WR Jordan Addison (53.0)
- CB Shaquill Griffin (54.6)
- RB Cam Akers (54.8)
- S Harrison Smith (55.6)
- LG Blake Brandel (56.0) pic.twitter.com/uKks1DkAaE— Tanner Weber (@Purple_Post) November 18, 2024
With the Vikings having their bye early in the season (Week 6), it appears they're comfortable with Akers taking some of the workload off Jones' shoulders to keep their star running back healthy.
While that's probably a good thing for Jones, it's not the best news for Jones' fantasy managers. Of course, head coach Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings don't care about our fantasy teams, but we can still analyze what we're seeing in terms of usage.
Luckily for Jones and his fantasy managers, favorable matchups against the Bears (twice), Cardinals, and Falcons are on the horizon. Even with a managed workload, Jones should be able to maintain fantasy relevance so long as he's active and on the field. However, expectations should be revised with Akers entering the picture.
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
How would Swift fare in the post-Shane Waldron era? That question was at least partially answered in Week 11. After three straight weeks of five or fewer touches, Roschon Johnson got 11 touches vs. the Packers. Swift's RB opportunity share dropped from 85% in Week 10 to just 59% in Week 11. He also saw both his route participation and red-zone opportunities decrease week-over-week.
#Bears RBs in first game without Shane Waldron:
* SNAPS: D'Andre Swift 41, Roschon Johnson 30, Travis Homer 1
* ROUTES: Swift 18, Roschon 12
* TOTAL OPPORTUNITIES: Swift 16, Roschon 11
* OPPS INSIDE THE 10: Roschon 3, Swift 1
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 18, 2024
This was a competitive game throughout, so it's not as if Johnson was playing in garbage time. His role increased with Thomas Brown calling the plays, to the detriment of Swift and his touches.
Given how well Johnson ran in Week 11, it's not likely the Bears revert to an 85% RB opportunity share for Swift going forward. If anything, it's more possible they use a hot-hand approach and wind up giving Johnson even more work.
Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
Samuel has had two very favorable matchups in the last two weeks, but not much to show for it. In Week 11, he recorded single-digit fantasy points for the second time this season. And that game was played without George Kittle, who seems poised to return in Week 12.
Overall, Samuel just hasn't looked good this season, and it was magnified last week vs. the Seahawks:
Is Deebo Samuel cooked?
Struggling to separate, not breaking tackles at his normal rate. Yesterday, he was pretty much a non-factor. He looks slower and pretty average.
In 9 games: 33 catches, 490 yards, two total TD, yards per carry is 2.9 - a career low.
#49ers pic.twitter.com/K8hn9903EV
— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 18, 2024
Jauan Jennings has averaged 92 receiving yards on 11 targets per game in the last two games, while Samuel has averaged just 42 receiving yards on 6.5 targets per game in those same games. And with Christian McCaffrey back in the mix for the last two games, Samuel has just four total rush attempts.
It's hard to sit a guy who can break one for a long touchdown at any time, but Samuel has underwhelmed in a big way this season compared to expectations.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Andrews commanded a season-high seven targets on a season-high 87% snap share and season-high 85% route participation rate in Week 10 without Isaiah Likely. Likely returned in Week 11, and Andrews came back down to earth, seeing just three targets on a 61% snap share and 58% route participation rate.
Andrews hasn't seen more than five targets in a game played with Likely this season. His ceiling is severely depressed as long as he's splitting time with the second-year tight end. Up next are two tough matchups against the Chargers and Eagles before the Ravens' bye in Week 14. After the bye, it's three more tough matchups against the Giants, Steelers, and Texans.
Maybe you're not dropping him outright, but temper expectations on the veteran tight end.
Other Fallers: Audric Estime, Adonai Mitchell, Nick Chubb, Ricky Pearsall
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