RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 5 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 4 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 4, our biggest risers were Diontae Johnson, Dallas Goedert, Jauan Jennings, Aaron Jones, and Rome Odunze. Our biggest fallers were Mark Andrews, D'Andre Swift, Calvin Ridley, and Javonte Williams. Johnson, Goedert, and Jones crushed in Week 5. Swift did as well, so he went from one of the biggest fallers last week to one of the biggest risers this week. Andrews, unfortunately, continues to disappoint fantasy managers, while Odunze came back down to earth with the return of Keenan Allen.
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 5.
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Week 5 Fantasy Football Risers
Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
All offseason long, we wondered how the Packers wide receiver room would shake out. Heading into Week 4, it was very spread out amongst four guys and a tight end (Tucker Kraft). But with Christian Watson suffering a high ankle sprain on Sunday, the room has been consolidated.
Wicks led all Packers pass-catchers with 13 targets in Week 4. He turned those targets into five catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. His ability to earn targets is no fluke. He’s done it time and time again when on the field the last two seasons:
Packers target shares with Dontayvion Wicks on the field the last two seasons (395 routes):
Dontayvion Wicks: 24%
Jayden Reed: 17%
Romeo Doubs: 16%
Tucker Kraft: 10%
Christian Watson: 2%There is a *chance* he is the best WR in Green Bay.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 30, 2024
As Dwain mentioned, there’s a good chance Wicks is the best receiver in Green Bay. Now, while Watson is out for a few weeks, he’ll have a chance to prove that consistently.
The Packers also have some very favorable matchups on the horizon. They’ll face the Rams, Cardinals, Texans, Jaguars, and Lions in the next five weeks. Each of those teams has allowed at least 20 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. If Wicks is available on your league’s waiver wire, make him a priority.
Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams
Whittington played just 38% of the snaps in Week 3 after Cooper Kupp suffered an ankle injury in Week 2. But HC Sean McVay saw enough in Week 3 to give Whittington a full-time role in Week 4. And the rookie wideout made the most of that opportunity, catching six balls for 62 yards on a team-high eight targets.
Jordan Whittington: full-time role in Week 4 📈
97% route participation
28% target share
26% air yards shareWon't be long-lived when Kupp and Nacua return, but could be something in Week 5 against the Packers.
God knows we are all hurting.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024
The Rams have just one more game before their Week 6 bye, but Kupp and Puka Nacua are no guarantee to return in Week 7. Even when Kupp returns (seemingly before Nacua), Whittington could still hold onto his full-time role given his recent production. The Rams continue hitting on late-round wide receivers in the draft (Puka, fifth round, Whittington, sixth round). This guy is good.
Every catch from @J_Whitt3 on Sunday.
🎥 More highlights on https://t.co/m9oFPQ096a pic.twitter.com/4eVAHtlsAY
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 30, 2024
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
We don't know the extent of Rashee Rice's knee injury, but we do know he'll be out for the foreseeable future. That means more of the Travis Kelce we've become accustomed to. For the time being, he won't have to compete with a target hog like Rice.
In Week 4, he posted a line of 7-89-0 on nine targets. His nine targets were good for a 32% target share, which was by far a season high. His previous season-high was just a 14.8% target share in Week 1. Kelce also had an elite route participation rate of 94% in Week 4 without Rice.
He may be a declining player at the age of 34, but the Chiefs might have no choice but to run him into the ground. He did it last week and he did it last season in the playoffs when he averaged 89 yards on 9.3 targets per game. Kelce goes from being a bust to being one of, if not the most, valuable tight end in the league once again.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Like his teammate Wicks, Reed is skyrocketing up the rest-of-season rankings with Watson set to miss at least a few weeks. He played on a season-high 78% of the snaps in Week 4 and set a new career-high with 139 receiving yards. That’s the second time this season Reed has gone over 100 receiving yards. He did so just once in his rookie season.
Love to Jayden Reed gets the @Packers their first points!
📺: #MINvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/IUURto84Ii— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
Wicks might get a couple more targets per game than Reed, but don’t be surprised if the latter puts up more fantasy points. Heading into Week 4, Reed ranked first among receivers in target separation (3.07), fourth in yards per route run (3.46), and first in fantasy points per route run (0.89) (data via PlayerProfiler).
He was cooking before the Watson injury. Now, he should feast with even more opportunities heading his way.
Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers
Per PlayerProfiler, Legette was averaging just a 58% route participation rate heading into Week 4. But in his first full game without Adam Thielen, he posted an 88% route participation rate. That led to six catches for 66 yards and his first career NFL touchdown on a season-high 10 targets.
Xavier Legette's FIRST career TD!
📺: #CINvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/x8NFnvD1fY— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
With Thielen out for at least the next three games, Legette has a chance to put up some pretty gaudy numbers alongside Diontae Johnson so long as Andy Dalton is under center. Outside of Johnson, the only other competition for targets is Jonathan Mingo, Tommy Tremble, and running back Chuba Hubbard.
Legette isn't just a riser in the short-term, either, while Thielen is out. If the Panthers continue losing ball games, one of Johnson or Thielen could very well be on the move ahead of the November 5 trade deadline. Now is your chance to trade for (or pick up) an ascending rookie in an offense that is going to be throwing the ball a lot in most games.
Other Risers: Xavier Worthy, Tre Tucker, Josh Downs, Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson, Bucky Irving
Week 5 Fantasy Football Fallers
Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs
Steele went from one of the hottest waiver-wire pickups to waiver-wire fodder in two weeks. In Week 3, he totaled 72 yards on the ground on 17 carries on a 62% snap share. Then in Week 4, he was essentially benched for Kareem Hunt. Hunt led the way with 14 carries to just two for Steele.
Steele did fumble for the second time in three games in Week 4, but that’s the kind of thing that’ll get you a seat on the bench if you’re not engrained as the starter.
Chiefs RB touches after Carson Steele fumbled on the first drive:
Kareem Hunt 16
Samaje Perine 5
Steele 1Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR) eligible to return in Week 5.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 30, 2024
Head coach Andy Reid remained confident in Steele after the game, but it’s hard to imagine Hunt doesn’t continue to remain heavily involved after looking pretty spry in his first game back. Not only that, but it’s obvious coach Reid trusts Hunt in all situations.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire also set to return as early as Week 5, Steele can be confidently dropped in most leagues for a higher-upside stash.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Odunze has now played two games with Keenan Allen and two games without him. In the games without him, the rookie wideout is averaging four catches for 72.5 yards on eight targets per game. In the two games with him, Odunze is averaging just one catch for 10.5 yards on 3.5 targets per game.
Odunze’s snap share has also taken a hit with Keenan Allen on the field (77% vs. 97%). It’s a small sample size, but it doesn’t appear Caleb Williams and this Shane Waldron-run offense is capable of supporting three wide receivers consistently.
Williams is also struggling to make throws down the field. That hurts Odunze, who’s averaging 16.6 yards per catch this season and has caught just 43% of his targets this season.
Every Caleb Williams pass attempt of 15+ air yards when not facing pressure: https://t.co/t5zK4TgJcE pic.twitter.com/WH2DEAkywW
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 1, 2024
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne played a season-low 52% of the snaps in Week 4 as he battled through a shoulder injury. Unfortunately for Etienne's fantasy managers, that injury paved the way for Tank Bigsby, who had seven carries for 90 yards against the Texans.
Tank Bigsby breaks free to the four-yard line!
📺: #JAXvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/YIbK25gX2k— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
It's been night and day for Bigsby this season. He's now averaging 8.2 yards per carry on the season vs. just 2.6 yards per carry in his rookie year. Bigsby's new role in the offense has eaten into Etienne's workload. His route participation has now fallen every week this season, down to just 40% in Week 4. It might not seem like a lot, but Bigsby's 14.3% route participation rate in Week 4 was a new career-high.
As long as Tank continues to produce with his touches, he's going to continue to earn more work. This will especially be the case if Etienne's struggles remain. Through four games, he's averaging just 3.13 yards created per touch (41st among running backs) and has a juke rate of just 13.3% (49th among running backs), per PlayerProfiler. Meanwhile, Bigsby is creating 3.86 yards per touch and has a juke rate of 28.6%.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Despite 17.8 PPR points in Week 4, Moss is considered a faller for the first time this season. So, why is that? Well, he had just a 51% RB opportunity share this past week and that percentage has fallen each week (76%, 76%, 64%, 51%).
Chase Brown finally broke through in Week 4 with 23.2 fantasy points on 17 total touches. He looked really good:
Every Chase Brown carry from his 80 yard 2 touchdown performance pic.twitter.com/u7FkB4kxbz
— mike (@bengals_sans) September 30, 2024
Moss will still play. He continues to dominate the passing-down work (28 snaps for Moss vs. two for Brown). However, it appears that his share of the RB opportunities is starting to dwindle due to how well Brown is running the football.
Moss is still startable for the time being as long as Brown struggles in pass protection. However, if Brown gets up to speed in that aspect of the game, he's going to eventually pass Moss in playing time and opportunities.
Other Fallers: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Nailor, Tyler Johnson, Mike Gesicki, Rachaad White, De'Von Achane
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