2024 Fantasy Football: Positive TD Regression Candidates At Running Back

May 3, 2024

Adam Koffler identifies four NFL players at the running back position that should score more touchdowns in 2024. Fantasy managers should consider drafting these four running backs in 2024.

Touchdowns are the name of the game in fantasy football, especially at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. In most leagues, both rushing and receiving touchdowns count for six points. In a half-PPR league, that's the same thing as 10 carries for 40 yards and two catches for 10 yards. Needless to say, touchdowns matter.

Now that we're on the topic of touchdowns, this article will highlight four running backs that are due for positive TD regression in 2024 (I also recently highlighted four wide receivers that are due for positive TD regression if you want to check that out). These guys didn't find paydirt very often. As a result, they didn't score as many fantasy points as their managers would have liked.

For one reason or another, the following four running backs are in line to score many more touchdowns in 2024 than they did in 2023. Different team, personnel adjustments, or just positive regression to the mean. Either way, expect more fantasy points from these guys as they find themselves celebrating more touchdowns this upcoming season.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

The Eighth overall pick in 2023 scored eight touchdowns on 300 total opportunities (214 rush attempts and 86 targets). James Conner, who played for the four-win Arizona Cardinals, had nine touchdowns on just 241 total opportunities. 

Lucky for Bijan Robinson, a new coaching staff has arrived in Atlanta. Head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson both come from Los Angeles, where the Rams seemingly never took Kyren Williams off the field in 2023. Kyren’s opportunity share was 78.4%, while Robinson’s was just 52.5% despite averaging 5.4 yards per touch. 

In 2023, Bijan had the same number of red zone rush attempts as Kenneth Gainwell (23) and fewer rush attempts inside the five-yard line (two) than Commanders’ rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. (three). Meanwhile, Kyren was top-5 in red zone rush attempts a season ago. And remember, Raheem Morris didn’t even mention Tyler Allgeier when asked what stands out about the Falcons offense.

What stands out to Raheem Morris about the Falcons offense?

1. Drake London
2. Bijan Robinson pic.twitter.com/72Tw3ZMnoz

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 5, 2024

Bijan Robinson is one of the very best running backs in the NFL. Heck, he may even be the best, considering his combination of young age and elite skillset. His snap share and opportunity share should exponentially increase, as should his touchdown total on a better offense that wants to get the football into his hands. 15 touchdowns should be considered his floor in 2024.

Bijan Robinson's FIRST NFL TOUCHDOWN!

📺: #CARvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/e8jtos04Qs

— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Hall played all 17 games in his second season with the Jets. Despite getting 318 total opportunities (223 rush attempts and 95 targets), he found paydirt just nine times (a touchdown every 35.3 opportunities). In his rookie season, Hall scored a touchdown every 22.2 opportunities.

The Jets had one of the worst offenses in the league last season, averaging just 15.8 points per game. That was the fourth-fewest points in the league despite being middle of the pack in plays per game (61.9). Hall had just 21 red zone carries, 10 carries inside the 10, and just one carry inside the five. In 2024, those numbers should increase exponentially with Aaron Rodgers under center. The Jets also added Mike Williams to help lighten the box for Hall alongside Garrett Wilson. 

In 2021 and 2022, Rodgers’ last two seasons in Green Bay, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined to score 17 and 14 touchdowns per season, respectively. Hall should get the majority of opportunities for the Jets in 2024, especially when they get down inside the 10. His only other competition for touches is Israel Abanikanda, who saw just a 15.7% snap share a season ago. 

Despite playing on a lackluster offense, Hall’s elite athletic ability was still on display. Per PlayerProfiler, he finished 11th in yards per touch (5.3), 5th in juke rate (25.8%), 1st in evaded tackles (77), and 10th in yards created per touch (3.9). Should the Jets offense take a major step forward as expected, Hall’s efficiency will lead to many more yards and touchdowns alike in 2024.

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

With Joe Mixon now in Houston, there are 309 total touches up for grabs in the Cincinnati backfield. According to Joe Goodberry, those touches will be split between new RB1 Zack Moss and RB2 Chase Brown after the Bengals didn’t select a running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. Notice how I said “RB1” before Moss’ name; that’s the expectation from those around the team after they brought him in this offseason on a two-year, $8M contract.

Moss very much showed he was capable of handling a heavy workload when Jonathan Taylor was injured last season. In six starts, Moss averaged 87.3 rushing yards on 20.1 rush attempts per game. He handled a whopping 85% of the snaps during those six games.

ZACK MOSS HOUSE CALL 🏠

📺: #CARvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxi72 pic.twitter.com/XVMepoclQD

— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023

Meanwhile, Chase Brown didn’t see much work in his rookie season. He did, however, start to see some work in Week 13. From Week 13 on, he averaged 8.8 touches per game on a 21% snap share. It’s possible, and likely, that Brown sees his snap share rise a bit in his second season as he earns the trust of the coaching staff. However, it’s unlikely he will overtake Moss as RB1, especially early in the season.

So why will Zack Moss score more touchdowns this season? Well, for starters, he’s going to be RB1 in Week 1. He’ll have a chance to secure that role right away. Second, his predecessor, Joe Mixon, has been top-5 in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line each of the last three seasons. In 2023, he led all backs with 38 of them. These are high-value touches that present opportunities to find paydirt. Last season, Moss had 31 red zone rush attempts in his six starts, while Chase Brown had just seven in his six games played.

Zack Moss reaches for the goal line!

📺: #NOvsIND on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/MzJzbDPUEd

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders averaged 19.5 points on 59.4 plays per game. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers averaged 23.8 points on 61.5 plays per game. Jordan Love and company had the Packers’ offense humming in 2023. Now enter Josh Jacobs, who signed a lucrative four-year, $48M contract with Green Bay this offseason. He takes the place of Aaron Jones, who signed his own deal with division-rival Minnesota. 

That kind of money for Jacobs screams RB1, despite the Packers still having A.J. Dillon on the roster. Jacobs comes to the Packers playing for a team that wants him and that he wants to play for. He got to choose his destination. His days in Las Vegas felt like they were numbered the past couple of seasons. The fresh start on a much better offense should lead to many more opportunities in and around the goal line. 

Despite playing in just 11 games in 2023, Aaron Jones was 15th among running backs with 42 red zone touches. Project that out across 17 games, and Jones leaves behind nearly 65 vacated red zone touches. That would have been good for fourth among running backs between Mixon and Kyren Williams. Look for Jacobs to get a ton of work in his first season with the Packers in 2024. He’s a lock to score more than six touchdowns, as he did in his last season with the Raiders.

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