Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 16

December 21, 2023

Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose value for fantasy football is rising or falling.

Heading into Week 15, we highlighted Evan Engram, Rashee Rice, David Njoku, and Isaiah Likely as Risers. Engram was the only one that had a "bad" game. Rice, Njoku, and Likely all "likely" helped fantasy managers advance to the next round of the playoffs. Are you still alive?

In this weekly column, we'll be looking at fantasy football players whose arrows may be pointing up and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games.

We'll try not to overreact, but instead use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players. Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Risers

Noah Brown, Houston Texans

When thrust into a full-time role, Noah Brown is one of the best receivers in the league. In Week 10 when the Texans were without Nico Collins, Brown went for 7-172-0 on eight targets. Then this past week without both Collins and Tank Dell, Brown put up 8-82-1 on 11 targets. He had the second-most expected fantasy points of all wide receivers in Week 15 (thanks Hayden Winks):

The Texans' next two games are in Houston against the Browns and the Titans. The indoor conditions in December should help this Texans' passing attack, especially if they can get C.J. Stroud back from concussion protocol. It's looking like wheels up for Noah Brown. Congratulations to those who picked him up as a free agent down the stretch this season.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It wasn't too long ago we were calling Godwin a faller, but after two straight weeks of 11 or more targets, he finds himself on the list of risers heading into Week 16. Check out his target share vs. Mike Evans' target share in those two games:

Week 15 vs. the Packers was just the second game this season Godwin eclipsed the 100-yard mark. He caught double-digit passes and hit 20 fantasy points for the first time this season. He's finally developing chemistry with Baker Mayfield. In Week 16 he gets a favorable matchup against a Jaguars team that allows the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings

Here's what head coach Kevin O'Connell had to say about Chandler's role moving forward after a dominant performance in Week 15:

Chandler totaled 157 yards and a touchdown on 26 touches vs. the Bengals. He played 0n 81% of the snaps. That's more than Alexander Mattison has played in a single game this season. Chandler is now averaging 4.65 yards per carry this season compared to just 3.93 for Mattison.

A tougher task against Detroit lies ahead for Chandler in Week 16, but then a matchup with the Packers in Minnesota awaits in Week 17. Green Bay has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season. Chandler of all people could really be a league-winner this season.

Devin Singletary, Houston Texans

Despite Dameon Pierce being active, Singletary had 30 touches and a 91% RB opportunity share against the Titans. He looked fantastic!

At this point, he's completely taken over as RB1 in Houston and probably isn't giving it back. He's averaging 4.26 yards per carry compared to just 2.94 yards per carry for Pierce. It's been night and day between the two backs this season.

In Weeks 16 and 17 the Texans get the Browns and Titans at home. Both teams have allowed over 120 rushing yards per game on the road this season. The matchups mixed with the volume have Singletary very much in the RB1 conversation for the remainder of the season.

Other Fantasy Football Risers:

• Tee Higgins
• Jaylen Warren
• Tucker Kraft
• James Cook (again, obviously)
• Rashee Rice (again, obviously)

Week 16 Fantasy Football Fallers

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints

"King of the Hill" (yes, I just made up that nickname) returned to the field in Week 15. He was greeted with just a 19% snap share after missing Week 14 with heel and toe injuries. Maybe he was simply limited, but regardless, he went from being a smash TE1 to a complete nothing.

From Weeks 6 through 13, Hill averaged 10.6 opportunities per game. He scored five touchdowns in those seven games. In Week 15, however, he had totaled just five yards on two touches. Unless we hear that his workload is set to increase in Week 16, it'll be hard to trust him for the remainder of the fantasy football playoffs.

Now, one thought here is that the Saints didn't need to use Taysom Hill in a 24-6 rout of the New York Giants. Either way, a guy like Hill is prone to letdowns based on the flow of certain games. then again, he could always punch one in at any given time. Proceed with caution.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Williams was not good in Week 15. He totaled just 20 yards on 14 touches and couldn't create much of anything after contact. Actually, he didn't create anything after contact, literally:

After logging snap shares north of 60% in the last three games, Williams logged a snap share of just 48% in Week 15. His 54% RB opportunity share was also the lowest it's been in the last four games. Williams now hasn't churned out over 3.9 yards per carry in each of his last seven games. He's trending down ahead of a Week 16 matchup against a very solid Patriots run defense.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid had the first catch-less game of his NFL career in Week 15. He also played on a season-low 49% of the snaps. This came in a game in which Josh Allen threw the ball just 15 times and the Bills ran it 47 times. The problem is, we could see something similar in Weeks 16 and 17 against the lowly Chargers and Patriots. The Bills are 12-point road favorites in Los Angeles on Saturday.

Generally, he's been less active in the passing attack with Dawson Knox in the lineup. Check this out from my pal Dwain McFarland:

Between a healthy Knox and two possible blowouts in the next two weeks, it's best to avoid Kincaid for the remainder of the fantasy football playoffs.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

It's been rough for Ekeler's fantasy managers this season. Drafted as a sure-fire first-rounder after two straight seasons of 370+ fantasy points, he's disappointed in a big way.

Through 11 games, he's averaging a career-low 3.59 yards per carry and has just six touchdowns on 201 opportunities. In Week 15, he totaled just 38 yards on a season-low nine touches (on a season-low 40% snap share).

With Easton Stick under center, it's probably not going to get much better for Ekeler moving forward. On paper, he's got two decent matchups against Buffalo (at home) and Denver (on the road), but it's going to be hard to trust Ekeler with his current role and the current state of the Chargers offense.

Ekeler himself is a big proponent of fantasy football, so maybe we see him bounce back from a dud Week 15 performance to help his fantasy managers. How many of his fantasy managers are still in the playoffs after his down season is the question.

Other Fantasy Football Fallers:

• Sam Howell
• Dameon Pierce
• Bijan Robinson
• Garrett Wilson
• Saquon Barkley

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