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We don't have a waiver-wire champion here, but there are still several injuries that elevate players of interest. Be sure to track injuries here as our moves are impacted by the health of Jerome Ford, DK Metcalf, Christian Watson, and more. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
This week relieves the bye-week blues as all 32 teams are in action. Those looking ahead will note that Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, and San Francisco have Week 9 byes. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 8.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Kyler Murray’s 21-day practice window has been started and reports peg a Week 10 return against Atlanta as the hope. We can’t know how much he’ll run but it will have been over 10 months since his ACL surgery, so those desperate for QB stability can talk themselves into his mobility being immediately in play. Kyler’s first game back probably shouldn’t be in Week 9 against Cleveland’s ferocious front.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray could return from his knee injury Week 9, but most likely return date is Week 10, per @RapSheet pic.twitter.com/wVZcSQb6JV
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 22, 2023
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) - 33% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Baker Mayfield rebounded into the “serviceable” and “streamable” territory after a horrible showing against Detroit. Alongside 275 passing yards, Mayfield ran for a season-best 32 yards against Atlanta in Week 7.
He’s eclipsed 30 rush yards in two of his last three games and now the Bucs get a reeling Buffalo squad on the road. As long as Mayfield has a healthy Mike Evans to throw to then he’s a viable plug-in, with Evans holding up a top-10 Average Intended Air Yards mark of 8.4.
Bryce Young (QB, CAR) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Speaking of Average Intended Air Yards, Bryce Young’s 6.3 is tied for the lowest in the league (min. 53 attempts). This explains his inability to crack 250 passing yards in a game! The 0-6 Panthers come out of their bye with three straight matchups against top-10 QB teams (HOU, IND, CHI), so maybe Young can gain confidence there.
Regardless, Young has shown undeniable chemistry with Adam Thielen and we hope Jonathan Mingo can grow while D.J. Chark stretches the field. I’m not promising the world, but those in need could mine upside between projectable growth and plus matchups.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR) - 24% rostered /
Royce Freeman (RB, LAR) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 16-20% / 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30% / 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 30-40% / 20-30%
Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman ran a healthy split in Week 7, with Henderson as the 1A (18 carries, 13 routes run) compared to Freeman’s 1B (12 carries, eight routes). It’s clear Sean McVay still had faith in Henderson and valued his familiarity with the system, while Freeman must have made an impression throughout practice this year.
Meanwhile, Zach Evans is stuck in purgatory with little fantasy relevance. We’d love to see just one RB emerge but Hendo’s the top dog for now. Unfortunately, he and the Rams will face Dallas in Week 8. The Cowboys have ceded points to good RBs (Christian McCaffrey, James Conner) but have held NYG, NYJ, NE, and LAC rushing attacks down. Volume wins, but it might not be pretty.
#Rams RBs in first game without Kyren Williams (IR, ankle). Credit @AdamSchefter for being all over it:
* Snaps: Darrell Henderson 39, Royce Freeman 29, Zach Evans 0
* Routes: DHendo 12, Freeman 7
* Opportunities: DHendo 20, Freeman 12Note Myles Gaskin could be active Week 8.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 23, 2023
Emari Demercado (RB, ARI) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
I prematurely accepted egg on my face after Emari Demercado ceded Week 6 work to Keaontay Ingram, but Demercado ended Week 7 with 75 total yards on 17 touches. Ingram ended the game with a whopping zero touches, while Damien Williams had one tote for two yards.
Arizona takes on Baltimore next, who is perfectly average against RBs in ‘23. Let’s hope the current momentum holds behind Demercado and we aren’t subjected to yet another pendulum swing.
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Houston’s bye week tucks Houston’s RB stat lines deeper into the past, but don’t forget Devin Singletary had 62 total yards on 13 touches. Compare that to Dameon Pierce’s 34 yards on his own 13 handles and you see where we’re going.
We can acknowledge Pierce sees more hard-nosed reps but it’s been six games and he’s averaging fewer than three yards a carry. Singletary isn’t kicking any doors down, but 3.9 YPC looks far better than 2.9, yes? Both seeing 13 touches in their 20-13 victory over New Orleans is a great sign for Singletary ahead of a soft matchup against Carolina.
Devin Singletary isn't good ...
But he leads Dameon Pierce so far in:
* Yards per carry (3.9 to 2.9)
* Yards after contact per attempt (2.67 to 2.25)
* Rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.05 to -0.61) https://t.co/icfmfz9RNG— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 18, 2023
Pierre Strong Jr. (RB, CLE) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-6%
Pierre Strong joined the game late after Jerome Ford exited with an ankle injury. Adam Schefter reported that Ford should miss one to two weeks and while Kareem Hunt is already 65% rostered, Strong fell to 1% on Yahoo’s platform.
Opportunity is worth eyeing, but Cleveland faces a Seattle defense yielding a meager 3.5 YPC to opposing runners. The Browns might be desperate for rushing volume to offset PJ Walker potentially taking snaps after another Deshaun Watson injury.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 16-20%
Aggressive Bid: 20-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-40%
Congratulations to those of you who listened and got down with Josh Downs already, because yesterday’s price is not today’s price. We saw the wheels on an early 59-yard TD in Week 7, which helped fuel a 5-125-1 line.
The slot man has been fantastic with Gardner Minshew and his passing volume under center, compared to the handful of games with Anthony Richardson in ‘23. Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. can co-exist with Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss since Indianapolis can’t win a game with defense.
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
A week after Kendrick Bourne caught 10 passes for 89 yards, he delighted by catching 6-of-7 targets for 63 yards and his first score since Week 1 in an upset over Buffalo. He had an awful Weeks 2-5 as the Patriots tested the limits of ineptitude on offense, but Bourne is a sturdy PPR target as long as New England isn’t atrocious.
Week 8’s tilt against Miami will surely see New England need to throw early and often to keep up, so don’t let Bourne get far. Those in deeper waters will want to throw a few FAAB dollars at Demario Douglas, who turned five touches into 74 yards. DeVante Parker is inconsistent at best and Tyquan Thornton is still behind Jalen Reagor, so act accordingly.
Jake Bobo (WR, SEA) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%
With no D.K. Metcalf, Jake Bobo stepped up to lead all Seattle wide receivers in snaps (45) while tying with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the most routes run (24), per PFF. He made the most out of his five targets, catching four balls for 61 yards and a highlight-reel TD with pristine body/foot control.
Those who played preseason DFS are familiar with Bobo, who scored twice with over 100 yards on just seven catches. He's the type of player who can make the improbable occur if given a chance. It's a good bet that Metcalf will return for Week 8 given that he was a game-time decision and has a strong history of durability. But those with deep benches can take a stab here.
Geno Smith & Jake Bobo (18-yd TD)
🔹 Air Distance: 42.3 yds
🔹 Target Separation: 0.4 yds
🔹 Completion Probability: 15.9%*The completion was the most improbable touchdown pass of the season.#AZvsSEA | #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/25re5gsfBX
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 22, 2023
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%
It’s a shallow FAAB week, as I don’t need to remind y’all how Marvin Mims scored negative points in Week 7 due to -11 rushing yards. Oh, and he had zero points in Week 6 and negative points in Week 5 due to a fumble. Are you sold yet?!
Yes, it’s been ugly but we’re nearing November and trade chatter is growing. Denver is not capable of supporting a third wide-out but if Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy are dealt, then Mims could evolve beyond being big-play dependent. And Mims should be nearly free!
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) - 42% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Dalton Kincaid caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards, with the season-best marks coming after he missed Week 6 due to a concussion. The rookie remains more involved than Dawson Knox when it comes to receiving, though Knox had a touchdown nullified by a penalty.
We have yet to see the focus shift to Kincaid near the end zone, but PPR teams should enjoy a stretch of TE-friendly matchups to come over the next month before Buffalo’s Week 13 bye. And now it turns out Knox requires wrist surgery and will miss time, which really solidifies Kincaid's workload and makes him a stellar add.
The Bills will revert back to more '11' personnel, but Dalton Kincaid should see a more consistent target share (he's at 20%+ in his last two full games) and is very much in the TE1 discussion. Add on waivers. https://t.co/67ltpBUB3M
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 23, 2023
Trey McBride (TE, ARI) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-10%
Monday afternoon saw news break that Zach Ertz is hitting the injured reserve, meaning he's gone for at least four weeks. McBride and Ertz each had three receptions in Week 7, with PFF charting each with 35 snaps and 20 routes run for Ertz against 19 for McBride.
There was little room for upside with two TEs working a near-even split in a subpar offense. Now we have a chance at 6-8 targets per game out of McBride, who soon should be receiving passes from Kyler Murray rather than Joshua Dobbs. Make the move if you need to!
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Juwan Johnson has yet to resume practicing since a Week 3 calf injury as Taysom Hill has made his bread as a receiver of late. After just six targets in New Orleans’ first five games, Hill has caught 11-of-13 looks for 99 yards in their last two games.
Jamaal Williams looked ineffective in his return to action, which cracked the door open for Taysom to rush five times for 18 yards and a score in Week 7. If the Saints give us consistent hybrid work for Hill then we have an exciting TE, but two weeks doesn’t erase low-floor concerns.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Gerald Everett scored in his second straight game on Sunday, but left early due to a quad injury. Let’s be optimistic and assume he’s back for Week 8 against Chicago, as Everett is a preferred red-zone target without Mike Williams.
Austin Ekeler is not back to 100%, but the offense shouldn’t need to do as much against the Bears. Let’s hope Everett is part of their pouring it on before salting away a big lead late. The Bears, Jets, and Lions are all within the top 10 of TE-friendly fantasy defenses in 2023, and those are LAC’s next three opponents.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants Defense (vs. NYJ) - 3% rostered
FFAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
The Giants took advantage of Washington’s porous O-line with six sacks after a terrifying schedule to open the season. This was their first team faced that allowed an above-average amount of fantasy points to opposing defenses, and now they face the Jets and Raiders over the next two weeks. NYJ has improved, but a revitalized NYG team with confidence could make life difficult for Zach Wilson.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense (vs. CHI) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
The Chargers have dealt with Dallas and Kansas City over the last couple of weeks, but now the schedule provides relief with the Bears and Jets. They only got to Patrick Mahomes once in Week 7, but had 21 combined sacks over their previous four games. They can generate pressure on an inexperienced Bears team and force mistakes with a home crowd behind them.
Atlanta Falcons Defense (at TEN) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%
The Falcons ground out a 16-13 victory over the Bucs in Week 7, getting to Baker Mayfield three times with an interception and fumble recovery. It was their strongest overall showing since Week 1 and now they travel to Tennessee, where either Malik Willis or Will Levis await them. Ryan Tannehill is “likely out” according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, and either backup would make for a plus streaming matchup. (So would Tannehill).
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