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Joey's must-have fantasy football running back breakouts for 2023. Late-round running back sleepers and ADP value picks for 2023 fantasy football drafts.
It’s finally August, which means fantasy football drafts are heating up. With the regular season set to begin in less than one month, many fantasy managers are getting ready to draft their teams later this month/early next month.
The first round is always the most exciting part of the draft. The first player you select will hopefully lead your team to a fantasy football championship. But the later rounds matter just as much. There will always be sleepers at the end of your drafts that will break out, especially at the running back position.
Last year, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White and Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco were two rookies that provided great value toward the end of the season. Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is one of my favorite breakout sleepers this year, but he's going in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. This list will contain four running backs with great breakout potential that are going much later in fantasy drafts in 2023.
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De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins selected running back De'Von Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While he enters a loaded backfield with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., the speed and talent is there for the former Texas A&M product. He’s currently going around the 10th round in 10-12 team non-Superflex leagues, and he has a good chance to be involved right away in his first year.
Achane had 232 touches for 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last college season in 2022. His speed will likely give him opportunities all around the field in Miami's offense. The rookie ran a 4.32 40-yard dash, and the Dolphins can use that quickness in both the running and passing game.
There might not be a big workload for Achane right away to begin the year. However, the injury history of both Mostert and Wilson could help the rookie earn more chances. The former has missed 25 games over the past three years, and the latter has missed 12 contests in that same span. The new Dolphins running back landed in a great spot, and he is already turning heads in training camp.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars
Another rookie running back makes this list. The Jacksonville Jaguars selected Tank Bigsby in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Bigsby was the seventh RB off the board during the draft, and he could immediately make an impact in his first year.
Bigsby was efficient in all three college seasons at Auburn, even running for 834 yards as a true freshman. Then he totaled over 1,100 scrimmage yards in the next two seasons, including 970 rush yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022. With the Jaguars wanting to limit the workload of running back Travis Etienne this season, the rookie could get more opportunities to shine. As a result, the team has been using him a lot during training camp.
Now, Bigsby shouldn’t be drafted anywhere near the middle of drafts. But he could be a player you take later, possibly with your last pick.
He has the chance to be used in both the running and passing game and has been impressive so far during training camp. Head coach Doug Pederson called the rookie a "sponge" just last week when referring to how smart the running back is on the football field. His ADP is currently 144 on Sleeper, and he could break out in his first year.
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears moved on from veteran David Montgomery this offseason, which opened the door for running back Khalil Herbert. It’s not ideal that the team also signed D’Onta Foreman and drafted rookie Roschon Johnson. But Herbert should still be in store for more touches this season, even in a crowded backfield group.
Since Herbert was drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, he has been stuck behind Montgomery on the depth chart. The Bears have seen glimpses of the running back's potential over the past two seasons, though. He ran for 433 yards as a rookie and 731 yards in 2022 (averaging 5.7 yards per carry).
The departure of Montgomery could finally help the 25-year-old back break out. Herbert is currently going around the 11th round on ESPN, which seems too low for the starting running back on a run-first offense.
In the two games where Herbert saw over 60% of the team snaps last season, he had 30.9 PPR fantasy points and 11.1 PPR points, respectively. Of course, there’s plenty of competition for touches in Chicago in 2023. But he’s definitely worth a gamble in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Many people might not know running back Jerome Ford just yet. He was drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Although he had only eight carries for 12 yards in his rookie season, a much bigger role could be in store for the former Cincinnati alum. In his final college season in 2021, he ran for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Ford was stuck behind running backs Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson on the depth chart in his first NFL season in Cleveland. But with Hunt and Johnson leaving this offseason, the second-year back is the favorite to back up Chubb in 2023. He has also reportedly done a great job in that role so far during training camp and is excited about that new opportunity this year.
Ford’s ceiling is obviously capped because of Chubb’s presence. But there’s a solid chance he breaks out this year, given his larger workload on offense.
The second-year running back is going in the 16th to 17th round in most 10-12 non-Superflex leagues and won’t cost fantasy managers much draft capital in 2023. He’s also a great handcuff if you select his teammate (Chubb) earlier in drafts.
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