Must-Have Running Backs - Adam Koffler's Fantasy Football Picks Include Jahmyr Gibbs, Khalil Herbert, James Cook, more

September 5, 2023

Adam Koffler's must-have RBs for 2023 fantasy football drafts. He identifies NFL running backs that are undervalued and could be league-winning draft picks.

I could sit here and talk about needing to roster Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Saquon Barkley this season, but that's just not realistic given their average draft position (ADP). So instead, I'll focus on a variety of backs that have varying ADPs that you should be able to get in a snake draft this fantasy football season.

I'll start by saying I'm a huge fan of Nick Chubb this season without Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. However, I decided to focus on four other backs with lower ADPs for this article. However, Chubb is a good bet to lead the league in rushing and could see some additional targets without Hunt, so draft him if you can.

But anyway, let's get right to it. Here are my four must-have running backs for the 2023 fantasy football season.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

My ride-or-die this season is Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, hands down. I want him on every single one of my fantasy teams. Now, I won't go spending my 1st-round pick on the guy, because I almost certainly don't have to. But you bet your bottom dollar I'm taking him in the 3rd or 4th round. Just look at the reaction from Detroit's brass during the draft process:

When @Jahmyr_Gibbs1 got the 📞 pic.twitter.com/BEdRFlIu3c

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) April 28, 2023

A season ago, D'Andre Swift had the role that Gibbs will occupy this season. Swift averaged 13.7 PPR points per game on just a 41.8% snap share and 36.9% opportunity share, per PlayerProfiler. Only 15 running backs averaged more than 13.7 PPR points per game in 2022.

He had 70 targets in just 14 games. In one of those games, he played just 16% of the snaps but still managed to haul in three balls for 40 yards. And remember, the Lions' new regime under Dan Campbell had no connection to Swift, and he still managed to finish as a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues. Now look again at the reaction video when the Lions were able to land Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. They have big plans for this young man.

The Lions also play in one of the weakest divisions in football. Chicago and Minnesota allowed the most and 3rd-most points per game in 2022, while the Packers were middle of the pack in that department. Additionally, the receiving depth chart behind Amon-Ra St. Brown looks extremely scarce. You've got a rookie tight end in Sam LaPorta (who I also think will do big things as a rookie), Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond. Jameson Williams won't be available until Week 7 at the earliest, but he's had a bunch of red flags early on in his career.

of ALL first round RBs, these were the HIGHEST freshman receiving yard market shares 

📍Chris Johnson - 10.0%
📍Christian McCaffrey - 9.1%

after Gibbs went 12th Overall, his whopping 21.7% became the clear HIGHEST EVER 

Jahmyr Gibbs is a TRANSCENDENT Receiving Back 🔥

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) August 18, 2023

It's possible that Gibbs is the 2nd-highest target earner on this Lions team. Reaching 100 targets is more than attainable for the rookie out of Alabama. Last season, only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler finished with north of 100 targets, and you know how they produced. Detroit was also 3rd in the NFL in rushing touchdowns a season ago. Sure, David Montgomery will score a lot of those, but Gibbs is sure to find the end zone his fair share of times as well. He's my number one must-have RB in 2023.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

With J.D. McKissic no longer in Washington, Gibson becomes the guy on 3rd downs, obvious passing downs, and in the two-minute drill. That's a very valuable role from a fantasy football perspective. The Commanders also have a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy this season. He comes from Kansas City, where we know he loved to target his running backs out of the backfield. Jerick McKinnon had the 9th-most targets of all RBs in 2022, while Darrel Williams was 12th in 2021.

In the last two seasons, Gibson has averaged nearly four targets per game in games without McKissic. That's 68 targets in a 17-game season. Last season, only 10 running backs had more than 68 targets. And check this out, from @GuruFantasyWrld:

Antonio Gibson a RB2 w/ RB1 upside.

RB18, RB17, & RB28 in PPG the last 3 seasons .

& has 145+ carries & 40+ targets every year of his career.

The only RB's to have more targets (57) & a higher PFF receiving grade (80.5) last year were:

- Christian McCaffrey
- Austin Ekeler

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) August 20, 2023

But it's not just the targets that should have us excited about Gibson this season. Believe it or not, he had more red zone rush attempts than Brian Robinson a season ago. Yes, Gibson played three more games, but that's still quite impressive and possibly indicative of his multi-faceted role this season. And despite scoring just five total touchdowns on 195 touches a season ago, he still managed to finish as the RB27 in full PPR formats.

In 2023, Gibson has an ADP of RB34 according to FantasyPros. At that suppressed price point, he's a must-have RB. He's being drafted as an RB3/RB4-type who has real top-18 potential on an offense that could feature him in a more prominent role this season. Don't let "being burned in the past" keep you from stealing Gibson in the 9th or 10th round this season.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

For those concerned about Cook as an every-down back, he played on 15 of Josh Allen's 16 snaps in Preseason Week 2. Sure, Damien Harris was out (again) with knee soreness, but Latavius Murray only played two snaps with Allen and the starters. Cook could very well start the season as an every-down back in Buffalo, despite being listed under 200 lbs. My buddy @dwainmcfarland highlighted his utilization:

James Cook dominated first-team work in Week 2 of the preseason.

86% snap share
75% rush attempts
70% route participation
100% of short-yardage snaps 👀

Damien Harris didn't play due to injury. Latavius Murray rotated after the first drive but clearly behind Cook. pic.twitter.com/DGrMqJqp4H

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 20, 2023

One thing going against Cook, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, is his size. He ranges anywhere from 190 to 199 lbs. If he hit 200 lbs, he'd be drafted in the 3rd round. But alas, here we are. You can get James Cook in the 6th or 7th round of your fantasy drafts this season. He's the RB1 for one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league.

People think Cook was bad last year. That's a myth. He didn't play a whole lot at the very beginning of the season, but his snap share ticked up starting in Week 13. Despite his limited role with Devin Singletary taking the majority of the running back snaps, Cook actually performed quite well as a rookie.

Per PlayerProfiler, he was 2nd in true yards per carry, 3rd in yards per touch, and 1st in breakaway run rate! Because of his high efficiency, Cook managed 0.87 fantasy points per opportunity, which was 17th-best amongst all running backs.

One area of the game that many think Cook needs work (compared to Latavius Murray) is in pass protection. However, as long as he's attacking that job like THIS, he should be on the field more and more as he gains Josh Allen's trust on passing downs:

You love to see this from James Cook

pass pro is not passive pic.twitter.com/2lsBzdwhGC

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 21, 2023

Last season, Singletary was a top-25 RB on a 65.7% snap share and 58.2% opportunity share. Now look at Preseason Week 2 when Cook played on 86% of the snaps with the first-team offense. That may not happen in the regular season with consistency, but he's likely a better runner than Singletary. His floor is RB25, while his ceiling feels like a back-end RB1 given the offense he's playing in.

Currently, Cook's ADP sits around RB31. There's essentially no risk and all reward when drafting him this season. He's a must-have running back in 2023. Let...James...Cook!

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

I've gone back and forth with Herbert. On one hand, he was really quite good as a rusher last season. Per PlayerProfiler, he was 5th in true yards per carry (5.2), 7th in yards per touch (5.7), 7th in juke rate (39.1%), and 9th in yards created per touch (3.3). On the other hand, the Bears brought in both D'Onta Foreman (via free agency) and Roschon Johnson (via the Draft). But after seeing Herbert's usage in the preseason, I'm buying all of his stock!

Herbert played 100% of the snaps with Justin Fields and the first-team offense in Preseason Week 1. He rushed four times for 15 yards and caught a pass that he housed for a 56-yard score. Foreman and Johnson didn't see the field until after the first-time offense was done for the day, and that included Herbert.

Khalil Herbert played all 7 snaps for the Bears on their first two drives and capped it off with this touchdown run

Every-down back in the 8th or 9th round?pic.twitter.com/ukC5wzYLMP

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 12, 2023

In Preseason Week 2, Herbert rested along with Fields and the rest of the starters while Roschon and D'Onta both got a decent amount of work. That tells us how the Bears feel about Herbert. He's the Day One starter and he could see a very large workload early on. How he'll keep that workload is by being great. If 2022 is any indication of his abilities, he'll be great again in 2023 as Fields and this offense take another step in the right direction.

Remember, Herbert is actually very good. Don't let his 6th round draft capital fool you. This guy is the clear-cut RB1 in Chicago, and that could very well mean elite fantasy production behind an improved offense and offensive line. Herbert did what he did a season ago with one of the stone-cold worst offensive lines in the NFL. Just look at the difference between him and Foreman as rushers:

Khalil Herbert: 5.71 YFS/touch (RB7), 0.29 MTF/touch (RB4), 3.64 YACO/touch (RB1)

D'Onta Foreman: 4.52 YFS/touch (RB40), 0.16 MTF/touch (RB36), 3.16 YACO/touch (RB12)

Herbert was arguably the best runner in the league last season.pic.twitter.com/hASDT7t2mQ

— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) August 21, 2023

With an ADP of RB35, Khalil Herbert is my 4th must-have running back in 2023.

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