RADIO
Corbin examines several fantasy baseball hitters who have seen their average draft position (ADP) rise or fall iover the past two weeks of Spring Training.
We could go in a couple of directions when considering risers and fallers. One relates to which hitters have gone up or down in average draft position (ADP) over the past month by splitting it into two-week spans. Another way might involve us taking the pulse of the fantasy baseball market with some of the most searched and trending players.
As a numbers-based person, we'll focus on the rise and fall in ADP because that accounts for the fantasy baseball market telling us with actions by drafting players higher or lower.
We'll examine four hitters who saw their ADP jump and three players having their draft stock fall. What's the reason for their rise or fall? Do these hitters have the skills to sustain their ADP price? Should we target them regardless of the hitters rising or falling? Sometimes it's worth fading the market while we have other instances where it makes sense to go against the grain. Let's analyze whether to buy or sell these hitters that have seen their ADP rise or fall.
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Risers
Wyatt Langford, OF, TEX
ADP Riser: Up 38.3 spots
One of the most hyped rookies in Spring Training is Wyatt Langford, who blasted five home runs in 45 plate appearances as of March 17. Among hitters with 50 pitches seen, Langford ranks eighth in average exit velocity at 103.5 mph. However, it came with a brutal negative 6-degree launch angle, indicating he hit the ball into the ground.
It's a small sample, so be careful when making conclusions. We could take the optimistic approach of the exit velocities matching the output or the pessimistic outlook of too many grounders. After conservative projections for Langford before spring training, the projection systems have bumped up his playing time, pushing it close to 600 plate appearances.
We're dealing with small samples and minor league data, but Langford showed the ability to limit chases (20.8 percent) while making contact in the zone (86.7 percent). That indicates Langford uses a patient approach while making loud enough contact, evident in the spring training data and minor league exit velocities of 107.9 mph 95th-percentile EV.
Langford going around pick 140 made it more palatable as a middle-round selection. The spring training hype has caused Langford's ADP to skyrocket to pick 100, with some drafters fearing they'll miss out. Most evaluators have Langford as a near-elite fantasy option, and he hasn't disappointed in the spring. Besides not seeing the production in the majors, Langford's skills look worthy of a top-100 pick based on the numbers.
Oneil Cruz, SS, PIT
ADP Riser: Up 6.5 spots
Elly De La Cruz makes us slightly forget about the hype surrounding Oneil Cruz in the past two seasons. Unfortunately, Cruz fractured his lower leg in April, causing him to miss the rest of the season. Throughout Cruz's career of 414 plate appearances, he has a 62 percent contact rate while hitting groundballs 49 percent of the time.
Cruz flashed elite raw power, evident in his 104.7 mph EV50, ranking sixth in 2022 behind Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Kyle Schwarber. EV50 is a metric on Baseball Savant that takes the hardest 50 percent of a player's batted ball events. However, Cruz struggled to tap into the power consistently due to plate discipline and ground balls.
Thankfully, he destroys the ball when he elevates it with a 97.2 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) in 2022. In spring training, Cruz rocks a 107.7 mph EV on FB/LD, ranking third behind De La Cruz and Josh Smith. ATC projects Cruz for 23 home runs, 80 runs, 72 RBI, and 22 stolen bases with a .247 batting average in 567 plate appearances. That puts him about 30 spots behind his ADP in projected value, but the upside exists with consistent playing time hitting in the middle of the Pirates lineup. Build around Cruz's risk if you draft him as shortstop tends to dry up by pick 150-175.
Evan Carter, OF, TEX
ADP Riser: Up 8.5 spots
Langford has been taking over the Rangers outfield attention. However, we can't dismiss Evan Carter hitting five home runs with three stolen bases and a .306 batting average in 75 plate appearances in his rookie debut. Like Randy Arozarena a few years back, Carter performed well in the playoffs with an additional two home runs and stolen bases with a .357 batting average. The luck factors played a role with a .412 BABIP and 35 percent HR/F, and it's a mixed bag in the exit velocity numbers.
In the small sample of 39 batted ball events, Carter had a 5.3 percent barrels per plate appearance (No. 238) and 100.9 mph EV50 (No. 152) out of 561 qualified hitters. Carter has average power, but his hit tool graded out well. That's evident in his patient approach, with a 13.4 percent chase rate and 34.2 percent swing rate. The low 76.7 percent zone contact rate concerns us, but it's a small sample, so don't overreact.
The ADP difference shouldn't be close when we compare Langford's projections against Carter's. That means Carter should be falling instead of rising in ADP, though recent reports indicate the team won't platoon him. However, his 600 plate appearance projection of 16 home runs, 15 stolen bases, 140 runs plus RBI, and a .251 batting average doesn't scream top 100 picks.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, CIN
ADP Riser: Up 9.7 spots
With the Noelvi Marte suspension, Christian Encarnacion-Strand's ADP will continue to rise. In spring training as of March 17, Encarnacion-Strand has the fifth-highest average exit velocity at 105.6 mph. During his rookie season last year, he showed power skills, evident in his 6.6 percent barrels per plate appearance and 95.8 mph EV on FB/LD.
Encarnacion-Strand struggled to make contact with a 72.4 percent contact rate, four points below the league average. However, he made league-average zone contact at 84 percent. Since he uses a more aggressive approach, evident in his 73.7 percent zone swing rate, he'll have some strikeout and whiff concerns.
That's similar to his plate discipline metrics from Triple-A in 2023. Encarnacion-Strand chased 38 percent of the time with an 83.4 percent zone contact rate and 11.9 percent barrel rate. His projections for playing time increased, making him a four-category contributor, though he might bat in the bottom half of the Reds lineup with most of them healthy. There's depth at the first base position, so don't fret if you miss on Encarnacion-Strand.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Fallers
Ian Happ, OF, CHC
ADP Faller: Down 21.3 spots
Part of Ian Happ's drop in ADP relates to the hamstring injury, delaying his spring training activity. Happ posted his second-best season in earned value at $12, with a career-high in plate appearances (691) and stolen bases (14). Interestingly, Happ's stolen base opportunities remained at nine percent. However, he converted 82 percent of those chances, 11 percentage points above his career average.
Across the board, Happ possesses above-average skills with balance. He improved his zone contact rate to 84.5 percent, over four percentage points above his career average. Happ boasts 5.6 percent barrels per plate appearance (No. 133) with a 94.2 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 96) out of 258 qualified hitters. His skills and profile also play well in OBP and points leagues, with his 26.8 percent chase rate and career 12 percent walk rate. Keep tabs on the hamstring injury since it might limit the stolen base chances, but Happ still feels like an outfielder to target with his ADP discount.
Willy Adames, SS, MIL
ADP Faller: Down 7.6 spots
It's hard to explain why the ADP dropped slightly for Willy Adames, but it's probably due to some players moving up. There have been rumors about the Brewers trading away Adames, so maybe that's also part of the ADP dip. A concussion in the middle of the season likely impacted his skills and output in the summer months (May to June). Adames is coming off a career low in batting average, but his power skills indicate a bounce back based on the xBA (.235).
He uses a pull-heavy (46.4 percent) and flyball (44.7 percent) approach, which lends itself to lower batting averages. The lower actual batting average likely also came from more chases outside the zone at 35.6 percent, about four points above his career average. Adames posted the second-highest barrels per plate appearance at 7.7 percent (No. 57) and 93 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 137). It's reasonable to expect Adames to bounce back closer to 2022, especially given his xBA, though monitor his chase rate. We'll want to build around the batting average concerns for Adames.
Luis Rengifo, 2B/3B/SS/OF, LAA
ADP Faller: Down 7.6 spots
Like Adames, Luis Rengifo came into Spring Training with a hamstring injury. The quadruple positional eligibility makes Rengifo a valuable option at his ADP, but let's examine his skills. Rengifo showed more patience with a 32.2 percent chase rate in 2023 compared to 39.9 percent in 2022. He has league-average contact skills yet showed a noticeable improvement in contact quality.
In 2023, Rengifo's 5.4 percent barrels per plate appearance increased one percentage point from 2022. However, Rengifo's 93 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 138) improved over two mph from 2022 at 90.6 mph (No. 218). Interestingly, Rengifo hasn't pulled the ball or hit more flyballs more often in 2023, so it appears we have some legitimate power gains with a similar batted ball profile. Take the slight discount on Rengifo because he should set career bests across the board since it's worth the risk at his ADP, assuming health.
Vaughn Grissom, SS, BOS
ADP Faller: Down 59.3 spots
Speaking of injury discounts, Vaughn Grissom fits that bucket. Fantasy managers expected Grissom's playing time to increase with the Red Sox earlier in the off-season. Grissom's plate discipline metrics throughout his brief major league career suggested an above-average hitter. That's evident in Grissom's 74.4 percent zone swing rate and 90.9 percent zone contact rate. Theoretically, hitters with the best hit tools swing in the zone while making above-average contact. Over the past two seasons, 17 hitters had a 90 percent zone contact rate and a 70 percent swing percentage. One of them is Grissom.
Besides plate discipline skills, Grissom might be hitting too many groundballs, with a career rate of 48.8 percent of the time. That impacts his power since it rates as league average, evidenced by his career 5.1 percent barrels per plate appearance. Though Grissom doesn't have near-elite speed, he showed above-average athleticism to give us double-digit stolen bases during the minors. Grissom has the mixture for a balanced hitter profile, given his hitter with league-average power, above-average bat-to-ball skills, and above-average speed. Take a chance on Grissom as a middle infielder or bench bat with his ADP around pick 300 over the past two weeks.
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