FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 13

November 29, 2023

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 13 (2023) -- how many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Thanksgiving week may have stuffed our plates but I'm afraid the waiver options can't say the same. We'll present plenty of options here, but mind your playoff outlook/depth specific to your team's roster construction and needs. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.

After a generous week with all 32 teams in action, we now get a crushing six-team bye. Week 13 will see us without Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Las Vegas, Minnesota, and the New York Giants. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 13.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett (QB, PIT) - 16% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%

Pickett came out firing in his first game without former OC Matt Canada at the controls, finding Pat Freiermuth down the middle on their first play. He wound up with a season-high 278 yards on 24-of-33 passing but now has one touchdown over his last five games.

That could’ve changed if Diontae Johnson completed the catch on a 15-yard score, though that wasn’t Johnson’s lowlight on the day. The veteran WR showed zero effort on a fumble by Jaylen Warren and will surely have explaining to do. Regardless, Pickett now gets a fringe top-10 QB matchup against Arizona in Week 13.

Gardner Minshew (QB, IND) - 16% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%

There’s no dynamite streamer this week, but you’ll recall Minshew entered in relief of an injured Anthony Richardson against Tennessee back in Week 5. All he did was complete 11-of-14 passes for 155 yards in a 23-16 victory. With a full-steam Jonathan Taylor, a Josh Downs getting back to 100%, and Michael Pittman Jr. doing his thing, Minshew should have another good showing against TEN.

Jake Browning (QB, CIN) - 8% rostered

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%

Browning faced a tough task against Pittsburgh in his first start relieving Joe Burrow. He completed 19-of-26 pass attempts for 227 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.

Browning had some good luck on tipped balls but overall handled himself well across the field from T.J. Watt and crew. He’s faced Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but now gets a more generous Jacksonville team in Week 13. We’d all feel better if Tee Higgins could play too.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Zack Moss (RB, IND) - 51% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-80%
Desperation Bid: 80-100%

It was reported on Tuesday morning that Jonathan Taylor suffered a thumb injury, which is putting his status in doubt going forward. That news soon gave way to reports of thumb surgery and the hope that he'll return in 2-3 weeks. This won't help fantasy managers make the playoffs, but Mr. Moss sure can.

He's already been a premier pickup this season due to JT's earlier injuries and now we're back again. He was a fantasy star in the early season when Taylor was out and still has 672 rushing yards on the year, good for 10th on 2023's rushing leader list. His 67.2 YPG is tied with Derrick Henry, if you need a reference point. Those needing a boost into the playoffs must aim for Moss if he's available, but he may not be the guy during our FF playoffs.

BREAKING: Jonathan Taylor will undergo thumb surgery tomorrow in LA with the hope that he can return in 2-3 weeks, #Colts owner Jim Irsay tells @TheAthletic. https://t.co/pJDoeGZ9CS

— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) November 28, 2023

Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 23% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%

We got a heaping helping of Johnson in an ugly Monday nighter, with the rookie nearly doubling the touch total of Khalil Herbert (15 to eight). The rushing was mediocre (10-35-0), but he caught five balls for 40 yards and looked solid in pass protection.

This wasn't some gameflow situation that played out late either. Johnson doubled Herbert's snaps after Chicago's first two drives. This was a calculated plan with D'Onta Foreman out. Now, Foreman probably isn't missing extended time with his ankle/shin injury but Johnson could take the valuable 1A role with his versatility moving forward.

Somewhat lost in the mix of another putrid MNF was Roschon Johnson. His 3.5 YPC on 10 carries was nothing special

But, more importantly, Roschon had an RB opportunity share of 65.2%. We’ve been waiting for the rookie to take over this backfield, looks like it might be happening

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) November 28, 2023

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE) - 40% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%

We must do unsavory things with the Week 13 bye as depth is tested, I know. Zeke bounced up to 15 touches in Week 10 but that dropped to 11 in Week 12. The veteran rushed for over 45 yards with a pair of catches in both affairs, but the touchdown equity in this Patriots’ offense is horrible.

Zeke and the Pats face a top-10 RB matchup at home against LAC in Week 13. Those with PPR interests will hope for dump-offs as New England tries to keep up with Justin Herbert. Let’s hope the Brandon Staley memes can give NE life in a tight game.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - 27% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%

Gainwell is the next RB to roster behind D'Andre Swift and could become a playoff hero should Swift get injured. Games against San Francisco and Dallas in the next couple of weeks are unlikely to be fruitful, but that’s not why we’re here.

Philadelphia has excellent playoff matchups against Seattle, the New York Giants, and Arizona in Weeks 15-17. Perhaps Seattle can keep things competitive, but the Giants and Cardinals should get demolished by Philly’s mighty ground game. The potential blowouts could lead to opportunities beyond the usual starters. And he was inches away from this conversation being highlighted by a Week 12 TD.

Kenneth Gainwell gives the Eagles a boost with his 23-yard run stopped just short of the pylon. On the following play, the Eagles execute what they know best and Jalen Hurts puts the home team on the board first.

Eagles lead 7-0 with 1:06 left in Q1

— Josh Tolentino (@JCTSports) November 26, 2023

Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, MIA) - 17% rostered - FAAB: $5-8
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 39% rostered - FAAB: $2-3
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) - 17% rostered - FAAB: $2-3
Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) - 12% rostered - FAAB: $2-3
Samaje Perine (RB, DEN) - 20% rostered - FAAB: $1-2
Zamir White (RB, LV) - 2% rostered - FAAB: $1-2
D'Ernest Johnson (RB, JAC) - 1% rostered - FAAB: $1-2

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - 28% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%

Perhaps Samuel needed more time to get healthy after missing Week 9, as he turned in 100 yards on nine catches following two duds in Weeks 10 and 11. We can’t suddenly say he’s back to the production from Weeks 1-6, but this puts him back on the PPR map ahead of Washington’s uphill battle versus Miami.

Curtis Samuel's nine receptions matched his single-game career-high.

That led to his first 100-yard receiving game since signing with Washington in 2021.

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 24, 2023

Demario Douglas (WR, NE) - 36% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%

Douglas was New England’s best wide receiver in a horrible effort against the Giants but exited due to a head/neck injury. He said it wasn’t a concussion after the game, but symptoms can appear later in the week and he had one back in Week 6.

Even with him playing fewer than half of NE’s snaps, his nine targets nearly doubled the next man behind him. If healthy, Douglas gets a great matchup against the Chargers in Week 13, but who knows which QB he’ll have to rely on for catchable targets.

Elijah Moore (WR, CLE) - 42% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%

It’s ugly given the QB situation in Cleveland, but Moore stands as the No. 1 WR as Amari Cooper deals with a rib injury. Volume is volume, no matter how you slice it. Maybe we get bailed out with a Joe Flacco “Just Chuck It” strategy with poor efficiency but high-ceiling looks.

Jonathan Mingo (WR, CAR) - 5% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%

Mingo led Carolina’s wideouts with four catches for 60 yards while Adam Thielen only managed a lonely two-yard reception. The passing volume isn’t generous enough to support multiple players in any week, but Mingo has now seen six targets in three straight games. Tampa Bay should be able to stymie the run and has been vulnerable in its secondary, making Mingo a decent dart throw on a heavy bye week.

Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - 2% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 1-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%

Dortch could only haul in 3-of-9 targets, but one of them was in the end zone. His 27 yards don’t stack up to last week’s 76, though 17 combined targets project well for Week 13 at Pittsburgh should Michael Wilson remain out through their Week 14 bye.

The Steelers' defense should control the game and force risky downfield shots with an overall negative game script that demands passing. Dortch looks like the No. 3 option to eye behind Marquise Brown and Trey McBride if you’re needy.

Jalin Hyatt (WR, NYG) - 3% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%

The Giants are on a bye but Hyatt made the most of Darius Slayton being limited, catching 5-of-6 targets for 109 yards against the Pats. The 2023 third-round pick should mix in more down the stretch as the G-men evaluate personnel going into 2024’s phase of the rebuild.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT) - 48% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 15-20%
Aggressive Bid: 20-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%

The change at offensive coordinator brought a heaping portion of 11 targets for Freiermuth. He rewarded the trust by bringing in nine of them for a career-high 120 yards (three catches of 15+) after a lone seven-yard catch on his ledger in Week 11.

The Bengals have been a top-five TE fantasy matchup in ‘23 and Pat will see them against in Week 16. The middle tiers of TE are unforgivably inconsistent but we love to see his ceiling pop once again.

Pat Freiermuth was targeted on 11 of his 23 routes (47.8%), tied for the 2nd-highest target rate by a tight end in a game this season (min. 20 routes).

Freiermuth gained +32 receiving yards over expected, the 2nd-most in a game in his career.#PITvsCIN | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/eKdoM8BTqY

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 26, 2023

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR) - 39% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%

On a day where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for a mere seven catches, Higbee turned his five receptions into 29 yards and two touchdowns. He hadn’t found paydirt all year so naturally he gets a pair on a day he was mistakenly reported as inactive in the pregame report. It’s nice to see, but he’s impossible to rely on in 2023 and gets horrible matchups over the next three weeks (ARI, CLE, BAL).

Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - 9% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Johnson quietly led the Saints in routes run (34) according to PFF, as both Chris Olave (head) and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) exited early. The Saints were already down Michael Thomas and weren’t shy about getting Johnson seven targets on the day. The quiet 4-45-0 box score helps keep the FAAB cost down ahead of a plus matchup with Detroit’s ailing defense, which just gave up a gimme TD to Tucker Kraft on Thanksgiving.

Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN) - 9% rostered 

FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Desperation Bid: 2-4%

Dulcich wasn’t ready to return for Week 12 even though he was eligible to do so, but is aiming for a return this year. He’s barely been healthy this season but Denver has a double-dip against the Chargers’ weak TE defense in Weeks 14 and 17.

We saw a spark in six starts as a rookie in 2022 with 33-411-2 receiving. That 12.5 yards per reception mark ranked ninth among TEs (min. 25 recs), so we’ll hope Dulcich’s burst to get downfield isn’t compromised until ‘24.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs. CAR) - 30% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

The Bucs were without Lavonte David (groin) and had Devin White at less than 100% (foot), which fueled their getting smoked by Jonathan Taylor in Week 12. But Tampa Bay now hosts Carolina’s struggling offense and has a good chance to replicate their strong Week 10 efforts against TEN.

I think it’s fair to compare Bryce Young to Will Levis, except Young has absorbed 24 sacks over his last five games. Their offensive ceiling is soul-crushingly low, with 15 or fewer points in six consecutive contests. The DST range of outcomes feels healthy here.

Atlanta Falcons Defense (at NYJ) - 10% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%

Atlanta leaned on its defense throughout Week 12, with Jessie Bates generating two turnovers, one of which was a pick-six. You don’t need much supplemental reasoning when the Jets are the opponent, though.

I wish the Falcons were at home but we’d target this even if it were played in Tim Boyle’s own backyard. The Jets just surrendered seven sacks and two turnovers (one TD) to Miami’s defense. Gang Green is averaging nine offensive points over their last five games and is a must-play (against).

Los Angeles Chargers Defense (at NE) - 15% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-7%

Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe at quarterback, New England is a DST matchup to aim at. The Pats only scored six points in Week 10 versus Indy and seven points against the Giants on Sunday, combining for seven sacks and five turnovers in those games. This should help LAC break their three-game turnover-less streak.

Los Angeles Rams Defense (vs. CLE) - 7% rostered

FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-7%

They aren’t the Rams of a few years ago but they just held Arizona to 14 points with four sacks on Kyler Murray after limiting Seattle to 16 points a week ago. Cleveland will try its best to keep it tight through rushing and defense, but if P.J. Walker or, if healthy, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has to be responsible for moving the offense then good things happen for opposing DSTs.

Indianapolis Colts Defense (at TEN) - 14% rostered

FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-5%

The Colts just tied their season-high with six sacks against the Bucs and turned in their third consecutive game with multiple turnovers. If they can limit Derrick Henry and force Will Levis to be “the guy” then we’re cooking.

More importantly, you could potentially ride the Colts through the end of the fantasy season. Indy will face Levis in Week 13 before dates with Jake Browning, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and whoever Vegas is trotting out by Week 17.

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