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The final is here. We've seen 62 games played at Qatar and have just two remaining. Before France and Argentina can contest the biggest prize in soccer, Croatia and Morocco will face off in the game no one wants to play in; the third-place playoff.
The final sees defending champions France making their third final appearance in the last five World Cups while Argentina is making their sixth final appearance but hasn't won the tournament since 1986. Both are seeking their third World Cup trophy.
Like we did for the previous rounds, we'll be putting a total of 25 units across these fixtures and playing the ones that I believe offer us the best value. Just remember that unless specified, all bets are for 90 minutes and do not include extra time or a penalty shootout. We bagged a profit for our second-round and quarter-final bets before a loss in the semi-finals, although a last-minute goalline clearance by France is all that stopped us from making a big profit.
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Third Place Payoff - Saturday, December 17th, 2022
Croatia vs. Morocco, 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Croatia 2 - 2 Morocco (Croatia to win on penalties)
Croatia looked like they had run out of steam in their semi-final loss to Argentina. After going behind, they never really threatened to get back into the game and once Argentina doubled their lead, the game was almost like a training session in periods. Croatia won their only other third-place playoff back in 1998, their debut tournament.
Morocco's magical run at the World Cup also ran out of steam in the semi-final, although they did give France a run for their money despite going behind inside five minutes. The Moroccans achieved history by becoming the first African nation to reach a World Cup semi-final but injuries took their toll and they just lacked the cutting edge that France had.
The third-place playoff game usually yields lots of changes with players yet to feature or with limited game time at the tournament getting chances to play. Players carrying knocks will be rested so there's no way of predicting who plays and what will happen but both teams will likely need freshening up which should lead to an open game.
Betting picks
Total goals - Over 2.5 (-108 FanDuel) 4 units
Four years ago, Belgium beat England 2-0 in the third-place playoff. That was the first time since 1974 that there had been fewer than three goals in this game. It'll either be an open and high-scoring game or one team won't turn up and get heavily beaten. Either way, three or more goals is very much in play.
Both teams to score in both halves - Yes (+1100 PointsBet) 1 unit
If it is indeed a high-scoring affair, might as well sprinkle in a high-odds pick too...
Players to watch
Bruno Petković has featured in five games at the World Cup but only made one start as his role has been to come on and try to find a goal. He famously did just that in Croatia's quarter-final draw with Brazil, getting the equalizer late in extra time and the six foot four inches striker could pose a significant threat in this one from the start.
Zakaria Aboukhlal has only played 79 minutes at the World Cup from four substitute appearances. But he has a goal to his name and at 22 years old, he represents the future of Moroccan soccer. He already has 17 caps but only two of those have come in starts and he has three goals for the national side so he'll be keen to impress if he is afforded a start.
Today's World Cup Sportsbook Odds - Final and Third Place Playoff
- DraftKings Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on DraftKings!
- Morocco to win +215
- Argentina/France to draw +205
- BetMGM Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on BetMGM!
- Croatia/Morocco to draw +240
- PointsBet Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on PointsBet!
- Argentina to win +180
- Caesars Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on Caesars
- Croatia to win +135
- FanDuel Sportsbook World Cup Odds - Bet Now on FanDuel!
- France to win +180
If you are new to any of these sportsbooks, be sure to take advantage of the promo offers:
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World Cup Final - Sunday, December 18th, 2022
Argentina vs. France, 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Argentina 2 - 1 France
Argentina has grown into the tournament after losing their opener to Saudi Arabia. They overwhelmed Croatia in the semi-final and after blowing a 2-0 lead against the Netherlands in the quarter-final, they appeared to learn their lesson and controlled the second half against Croatia. Argentina looks like a team of ten players desperately playing for their captain in a bid to get him that elusive World Cup winner's medal. And the captain has been at his imperious best for much of the tournament.
After a close game against England in the quarter-final in which France was arguably outplayed, it was a similar story against Morocco in the semi-final. But an early goal against Morocco was the difference maker as France forced Morocco to try and press for an equalizer and then caught them on the break. But while Argentina has been improving as the tournament goes on, there's a case to be made that France has been regressing slightly.
This game is the soccer definition of a 'coin-flip'. I backed Argentina to win it all before the tournament began so I'm sticking with my guns and backing them to nick a tight game to give Lionel Messi a fairytale ending to his World Cup career and cement his legacy as arguably the greatest player of all time.
Betting picks
Both teams to score - Yes (+130 PointsBet) 6 units
Only PointsBet has this at plus odds and given both teams' strength is their attack and both have looked a bit shaky defensively, both teams scoring seems like a decent bet at this price.
First half moneyline - Draw (-115 PointsBet) 6 units
Of the last five finals, four have been drawn at half-time and last time out when France beat Croatia 4-2, it was 2-1 at the interval with France's two goals coming via an own goal and a penalty. Neither team will want to give anything away in the early going so a draw at the interval is very much a solid play.
Total first-half goals - Under 0.5 (+170 Caesars) 4 units
The eight World Cup finals since 1990 have produced five goalless first halves. The sportsbooks can't separate these two and a tight first half looks in order so adding in a 0-0 first 45 minutes seems sensible too.
To score anytime - Lionel Messi (+190 PointsBet) 2 units
So much of the pre-game narrative will be around Messi, as it has been all tournament. He's rolled back the years to help drag Argentina through games and looked at his best for spells of their semi-final win so I'm not betting against him producing one final piece of magic in what should be his last World Cup game.
A penalty to be awarded - Yes (+245 FanDuel) 2 units
Argentina has been awarded four penalties at the tournament while France has conceded three (two against England) and was somewhat lucky not to have conceded a third in that game and one against Morocco. There's been a penalty awarded in two of the last four World Cup finals so it's not a complete rarity.
Players to watch
I'm not going to overcomplicate things. The game is being billed as Lionel Messi versus Kylian Mbappé and while there is much more to it than that, I certainly think a bit of magic from either player will be the deciding factor.
Mbappé has been kept quiet in his last two games (although he was credited with two assists in the semi-final) but he has the chance to win back-to-back World Cups at just 23 years old. Messi's missed penalty against Poland has prevented him from having the chance to be only the third player to score in every round of a World Cup and the first since 1970 (when only six games were needed to win the World Cup). One of the pair will surely put their mark all over the final.
Good luck with those World Cup bets and remember to bet responsibly!
