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The 2021 NBA Draft is drawing near! Mock drafts are fun because they allow for a world of possibilities. We can fantasize about player and team fits and either get proven right or wrong each year on how things end up. More often than not, it does not matter because we did not have a modicum of control anyway.
This mock is based on a limited sample of games watched on YouTube and stats sifted through Basketball-Reference.com. My team analysis is my own from watching/following basketball so any and all takes there are mine and mine alone.
Just as a disclaimer, this is not meant to be predictive, every pick is one I would make rather than any expected situation. Drafts are such a crap-shoot that there is no reward for guessing right and it is more fun to imagine situations you like. Follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon to yell about any specific pick or take on player(s) situations. Enjoy the read!
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2021 NBA Mock Draft: The Lottery Picks and Their Fantasy Potential
1) Detroit Pistons - PG/SG Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
The best player in the draft. No-brainer pick for Detroit and all signs point to this being a done deal. Cade Cunningham is the full package at guard with the ability to lead an offense by facilitating, shooting, attacking the rim, and defending at a high level. The Pistons will have an incredibly young, well-meshed backcourt duo of Cunningham-Killian for years to come.
Fantasy Impact: Cunningham is fully capable of becoming a future first-round fantasy pick if things break right health and development-wise. He will be a full contributor across the board without hurting you in percentages. The only issue may be turnovers but that is expected with any high-usage player.
2) Houston Rockets - PF/C Evan Mobley, USC
The second-best player in the 2021 NBA Draft. Mobley possesses an uncanny mix of length, fluidity, and overall basketball ability. Mobley has the movement skills to play inside and out as a defender and will be lethal in either regard. His calling will be on the defensive end to start but that is no slight to his offensive potential. The shooting is a work-in-progress but he did take 1.2 threes per game in his lone college season while making 30% and shooting just below 70% from the free-throw line. Mobley's form is good and he was playing next to multiple bigs which shrunk the floor--the shot will fall once he grows in the league.
Fantasy Impact: Evan Mobley will not be the most appealing fantasy asset to begin his career due to the limited offensive role that could be presented but do not be shocked if he's a perennial second-round pick once he takes over as a full-time center with a larger offensive share and stocks galore.
3) Cleveland Cavaliers - SG/SF Jalen Green, G-League
Jalen Green will enter the league and put up high-scoring numbers from Day 1. He has been playing against grown men in the G-League and dominating them to the tune of 17.9 PPG in 32 minutes nightly on a .613 TS%. His clean stroke from three and the free-throw line should translate well to the NBA. Green is the perfect scoring swingman for Cleveland which has not really had someone of his archetype in a while.
Fantasy Impact: Green will be a high-usage scoring guard in the NBA putting up numbers similar to Devin Booker if he hits his prime. It is possible his first few seasons come with a low FG% and high TO rate but that is part of any young athlete's growing pains. His 2.3% steal rate is impressive and will solidify his value even more.
4) Toronto Raptors - PG/SG Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
Jalen Suggs is a great consolation prize for Toronto despite missing out on this year's big-3 prospects. Suggs is more of a complementary guard than a lead but that is more than fine with Fred Van Vleet in town. Suggs and FVV can play off each other while FVV takes on a larger scoring role and Suggs is more defensive. Both guards can facilitate the offense and shoot but having the other present raises this team's ceiling even further. There is a lot to like with this backcourt and OG Anunoby on the wing as this team's core. (Pascal Siakam is rumored to want out)
Fantasy Impact: Suggs will be a very solid fantasy contributor across the board in a few years. Expectations should be somewhere in the Mike Conley range with the upside for more rebounds and points. He won't win you any one category but these types of players are invaluable to winning leagues.
5) Orlando Magic - SG/SF Moses Moody, Arkansas
Moses Moody's name isn't typically this high on boards but a team in the top-10 would be foolish not to select him. Moody's mix of shooting and defense is spectacular. His potential impact is as valuable as anything a non-elite prospect could provide. The league's consistently in need of high-end wing prospects who provide on both ends. Orlando's in desperate need of a player like this despite the notion that it is a reach. Moody does not shy away from contact and has a quick trigger on catch-and-shoot plays. Defensively, he causes havoc in passing lanes and on help defense with his length. He'd be the ideal piece for a stagnant Orlando roster.
Fantasy Impact: Moody will not be a high-end scorer from the jump but he absolutely has the potential to develop into a team's leading point-getter in a few years. He has the stature to swing between guard and forward while playing off or on-ball and attaining both sets of stocks. While Moody is not a bad passer, he must be more willing to give the ball up to rack up fantasy-viable assist numbers.
6) Oklahoma City Thunder - SG Jaden Springer, Tennessee
The Thunder are reportedly offering packages to move in the draft but if that fails to transpire, Jaden Springer is an ideal target. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's presence makes it seem foolish to select another guard this high, they are in need of another plus-scorer to take the pressure off SGA. Insert Springer and the Thunder would possess a lethal, complementary backcourt duo that can not only defend every back-court possible with SGA's length and Springer's tenacity but work together or separately to lead the offense. Springer's college numbers may not seem wholly impressive on the surface but they came in only 25.9 minutes per game. The underlying metrics are favorable and Springer's 2% block rate and 2.7% steal rate are impressive for a 6'4" freshman.
Fantasy Impact: Springer can develop into a high-level guard in due time. He has the size to be an impact player from the jump but fantasy-wise we might not see a consistent scorer until his sophomore--or even third--season given his youth. Springer should be a multi-category contributor with great point totals, steals, and solid assists for an SG.
7) Golden State Warriors - SG/SF Scottie Barnes, Arkansas
The Warriors are naturally benefitting by the return of Klay Thompson but as we witnessed last season, Steph Curry is going to need a LOT more help if Golden State plans to return to relevance. Scottie Barnes may not be a high-level shooter (.548% TS as a freshman) but what he does provide in terms of creation ability, ball-handling, and finishing are highly valuable. At 6'8" 220, Barnes plays like a guard and can be a perfect complementary mate to shooters like Steph and Klay. He can start or come off the bench to play alongside one or both. Barnes's massive frame would add solid protection in the backcourt and wing to improve a team in need of improved perimeter defense.
Fantasy Impact: Despite Barnes's current shooting ability--or lack thereof--he can absolutely find a way to score in the high-teens or low-twenties eventually. The attacking ability is top-notch as he draws contact well and is capable of finishing through with his length and touch around the rim. He will likely end up with multi-position eligibility and have great assists, rebounding, and stock numbers. The only things to worry about are his free throw percentage and turnovers.
8) Orlando Magic - PG/SG, Josh Giddey, Australia
Josh Giddey is a recent draft riser who confounds me. While his playmaking ability and ball-handling are outstanding, his shooting form is ugly, to say the least. This may be nit-picking or hey, maybe my ability to discern good from bad is skewed but aesthetically, that shot does not look viable in the league. Nevertheless, we've seen great point guards make it work without a great three-pointer. Giddey is an awesome pick-up for Orlando here as they have essentially tried to find that PG of the future but do not have the right guy yet. Markelle Fultz looked promising until tearing his ACL and last year's first-round draft pick may be better off in a scoring guard role than as a lead. Giddey next to earlier pick Moses Moody would make for a fascinating backcourt tandem that is fortified by the talented wings and bigs already present in Orlando. As long as he can keep teams honest with his deep ball, everything else should fall into place.
Fantasy Impact: Giddey would make for an incredible fantasy asset who has the potential to wind up in first-round conversations. The 6'8" 205lbs frame may need a little work but there is major triple-double potential here. Giddey will probably not produce as a great defender but a steal per game and occasional block should be expected. His percentages will be a fair concern and will be the deciding factor as to where he lands in drafts down the line.
9) Sacramento Kings - SG/SF Keon Johnson, Tennessee
Keon Johnson is a highly athletic wing who may not be ready to contribute much early on but his potential is exactly what the Kings need. This team has been fooling around with guards or swing-forwards at the 3 for years and can patch that right up with Johnson who should develop into a good perimeter wing defender if anything. The 3-point shooting in his one college season was suspect (27.1% from 3) but he only attempted 1.8 per game. His 70.3% FT is not egregious and the shot looks clean making it a viable work in progress. Johnson is more of an athlete than a ballplayer at the moment but as the old adage goes, bet on the athlete. The Kings are desperate for upside and Johnson is chock-full of it at a position of need.
Fantasy Impact: Johnson is unlikely to matter in fantasy for a few years but the scoring ability is there if he works on his shot. Ideally, he becomes a low-20 point per game scorer with a little bit of every category while not hurting you anywhere and keeping percentages neutral.
10) Memphis Grizzlies - SF/PF Corey Kispert, Gonzaga
Kispert is as "league-ready" as they come given that he's a senior who just helped his team reach the NCAA Championship. The Memphis Grizzlies traded up from pick 17 to 10 with a specific player in mind who and that may just be Kispert who has consistently been discussed as a lower lottery pick. The fit between Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. would be immaculate as a 3-and-D guy who can catch-and-shoot on command. The Grizzlies look ready to take that next step with a healthy JJJ next season and Kispert absolutely helps take them there. Memphis showed last year with the Desmond Bane selection that they are a savvy org that is not scared off by older prospects if they can shoot.
Fantasy Impact: Kispert is likely a Day 1 starter or high-end bench player. He will be seeing at least 20 minutes per game from the jump and providing a solid amount of threes and rebounds. The ceiling is tough to gauge due to his age but a highly efficient scorer in the teens is in play.
11) Charlotte Hornets - PF/C J.T. Thor, Memphis
J.T. Thor is a draft Twitter darling who isn't viewed as highly on typical industry big boards or mocks. Thor would be the perfect center for a team that is young and fun. Obviously, LaMelo Ball is the star but forwards Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington are awesome as well. There is a very real core here that can shoot, defend, and attack the rim but they probably don't see Washington fit to play the 5. Bring in Thor and rim protection will no longer be an issue. The big thing with bigs nowadays is their shooting ability and whether it is respectable enough to keep teams honest. Thor has an incredibly pretty shot and even if he is not making 3's at a high clip, his presence will not shrink the floor like their past centers.
12) San Antonio Spurs - C Kai Jones, Texas
Kai Jones is a work-in-progress but the returns from his two seasons at Texas are promising. He has active hands as a defender and moves very well for a big. While willing to shoot on command without hesitation, the shot is very funky for now and needs work. Jones is great at drawing free throws (.517 FTr) but mediocre at shooting with a career 67.7% on 1.8 per game. The Spurs are one of the best developmental organizations of the past two decades and could fix what needs to be fixed in the lab while they go through a transition period post-DeRozan. The franchise center is a massive need for a team that has been lacking since Duncan's departure.
Fantasy Impact: It's a lazy comparison to a Texas Center but there is something of a Myles Turner outcome in Kai Jones range from a fantasy perspective. Low double-digit scoring, decent rebounds for a big, similar 3's, but obviously, not as many blocks given Jones's college rates and Turner being arguably the best in the fantasy realm there. One thing Jones can hold his hat on is being a better finisher/attacker which makes his FG% potential more intriguing.
13) Indiana Pacers - SF/PF Franz Wagner, Michigan
The Pacers are in an odd spot with their roster. Malcolm Brogdon's name has been floated around as a trade piece. They have been rumored to be moving one of Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis for the past two seasons. Their veteran scoring wing T.J. Warren sat out last season due to injury and general disgruntlement with former coach Nate Bjorkgren. Caris LeVert was a welcome addition after his battle with cancer but even so, the team is lacking that glue necessary to win. Franz Wagner can be that glue as he can do a little bit of everything on the floor from defending, shooting, attacking, and even ballhandling. He has the size to play both forward spots but may be better suited as a 4. Wagner comes in as an NBA-ready player who can help take some pressure off a team that lacks star power.
Fantasy Impact: Wagner may never be a fantasy stud but something in the Harrison Barnes with more stocks is possible. Wagner's defensive stats will be as impressive as his offense though given his improvement to a 3.2% block rate as a sophomore and consistent 2.3-2.4% steal rate in both seasons.
14) Golden State Warriors - SF/PF Jalen Johnson, Duke
This is an upside pick after grabbing Barnes earlier. Jalen Johnson is an interesting case where he opted out midseason due to issues at Duke and this, unfortunately, left us with just a 13-game college sample to evaluate. Johnson shot well from the field (52.3%) and three (44.4%) but his free throw percentage was abysmal (63.2%) and on 2.9 attempts per game no less. FT% is typically the best barometer available for a prospect's shooting to translate so this is not promising. Again, just a 13-game sample so the benefit of the doubt is in order. Golden State has developed very well and is in need of Johnson's upside where he can potentially take over as the number one scoring option in a post-Steph/Klay world.
Fantasy Impact: Given Johnson's limited game sample and the fact that he was benched, expectations should be low early on. He is an upside gamble in dynasty drafts but worth the pick with his all-around production potential. Johnson averaged at least 1 stock each in just 21.4 minutes per game.
2021 NBA Mock Draft: Picks 15-30
15) Washington Wizards - PG Sharife Cooper, Auburn
Sharife Cooper would be a fantastic pick for Washington given their future lack of youth in the backcourt along with Cooper's talent. Assuming that Bradley Beal does request a trade and Russell Westbrook is soon out the door, the team can allocate all touches to Cooper to see what they have. Cooper is a strong scorer, handler, and distributor but needs the ball in his hands to operate. His .560 FTr as a freshman was ridiculous and to top it off, he averaged 82.5% from the line. A 22.8% average from three is mediocre on 4.8 attempts per game but as stated earlier, FT is the better indicator. Defensively, he will always lack due to his size and general inability but a fortified surrounding team with a larger backcourt mate could mitigate that.
16) Oklahoma City Thunder - PF Usman Garuba, Spain
Garuba is one hell of a player and falling out of the lottery is more damning on his potential league fit than his skills. He is vicious on the floor with the ability to defend on-ball or off with fluid movements that will absolutely play in the league. His 6'8" stature is on the shorter end for a center but we've seen it play before. Garuba next to Pokusevski would make for a fun front-court that can shoot and block shots while playing off of each other's strengths.
17) New Orleans Pelicans - PG/SG James Bouknight, UConn
Bouknight is a draft riser in recent months but I am not enamored. He can certainly play but the upside is not as evident from watching him or looking at his TS% which dipped from his freshman to sophomore season. Maybe the conference change to the more difficult Big East affected this. On the whole, his surface numbers went up but he stayed mostly the same just with more minutes. The fit in New Orleans is good though considering that he can shoot and act as a scorer out of a backcourt. The Pelicans already have Kira Lewis Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker but given the departure of Lonzo Ball, the more options they have to play alongside and space the floor for Zion, the better.
18) Oklahoma City Thunder - SF/PF , Jonathan Kuminga, G-League
Jonathan Kuminga is talked up as a top-5 pick but that is not what I've seen. His time in the G-League--while valuable--was met with shooting struggles, unlike teammate Jalen Green. Kuminga is a larger wing who is likely a swing-forward in the league but plays like a guard. He's reminiscent of R.J. Barrett without his best trait, touch/finishing around the rim which is odd considering his already built frame. The Thunder here take a swing on the "upside" with their last first-rounder but he will obviously go much higher in the actual draft.
19) New York Knicks - PG Tre Mann, Florida
Tre Mann is a nice get for the Knicks here as there are desperate for a franchise point guard. Mann can shoot, lead an offense, and hold his own defensively which is all New York asks next to R.J. who will be the lead scorer from this backcourt. Mann improved immensely from his freshman to sophomore season and will look to build upon that in the league. The 83.1% FT on 3.7 attempts per game and 40.2% 3PT on 4.7 last year are very, very impressive and exactly the type of potential spacing necessary for a team with Barrett and Julius Randle as core pieces.
20) Atlanta Hawks - PG Davion Mitchell, Baylor
Mitchell is a lot lower here than typical mocks and it is unfortunately due to his age. Mitchell is a skilled guard no doubt but he was hardly impactful offensively in college until his senior season. While growth can be legitimate, it is not the best bet anywhere near the lottery to assume this carries over to the pros. Mitchell's defense will be his calling card in the league and next to Trae Young he can take on the much tougher assignments from opposing guards. He can act as they expected Kris Dunn to before he missed most of the season.
21) New York Knicks - PF/C Greg Brown, Texas
There is a possibility that Greg Brown winds up better than Kai Jones. The shooting form is so much cleaner and he shot better from the line which may allow him to swing between PF and C if that 3 carries over. For the sake of the Knicks, Brown provides hope in the form of a stretch-big who can hold his own defensively and fit well next to Randle. Randle makes it difficult on his own team with a lack of rim protection and spacing despite an improved shot last season. As teams respect Randle's shot more, it may suffer moving forward but someone like Brown expanding the floor would add the perfect dimension. NY could also play Brown next to someone like Mitchell Robinson if they choose to keep him around given his high-level play in spurts throughout his career.
22) Los Angeles Lakers - SG/SF Trey Murphy III, Virginia
Trey Murphy III is a shooter and the Lakers need shooters. He is going a tad too high in typical mocks but a team may see how good Cam Johnson's been in the league and take that shot earlier despite Murphy's lack of upside otherwise. This is the ideal fit for a team in need of role players ready to compete with the pieces in place.
23) Houston Rockets - SF Ziaire Williams, Stanford
Williams struggled in his lone college season but that could be a result of his extremely lanky frame mixed with the expectations as a top prospect. Williams abysmal .473 TS% is made up for slightly by a 79.6% FT. Williams is skilled on both ends of the floor by all means and presents a mismatch as a swingman if developed properly. The Rockets have nothing but time and the length/potential of a Williams-Mobley core would be ridiculous.
24) Houston Rockets - PG Nah'Shon "Bones" Hyland, VCU
The Rockets really don't have a point guard on the roster making Hyland a good value/fit pick. He is a talented guard who like Mann earlier improved immensely from his freshman to sophomore season. Hyland shot more threes per game than two's which the league should love. While his 3PT% went down, his 2pt went up significantly along with his FT. The FT is most impressive at 86.2% on 4.5 attempts per game. Hyland's 3.5% steal rate stands out as well and gives hope that he can contribute defensively in the league in spite of a wiry frame.
25) Los Angeles Clippers - PG Jared Butler, Baylor
Butler like his college mate Mitchell is an older guard prospect but at least he is exiting college as a junior rather than a senior. The duo helped lead Baylor to a National Championship and it was in large part to Butler's shooting ability. He has sustained a good FT% since his freshman season and improved his 3PT incrementally to boot. He may not be a lead guard in the NBA but as a scoring/secondary guard, he will be valuable. Assuming Paul George continues to lead the offense while on the floor, they won't need that lead anyway. Also, the Clippers could use all the help they can get if Kawhi Leonard departs this season
26) Denver Nuggets - SG Joshua Primo, Alabama
Primo played just one season at Alabama and has impressed enough to enter first-round conversations. He shot well across the floor despite only taking 6.5 shots per game and held his own defensively. The Nuggets could use a player like Primo on the wing where they really only have Michael Porter Jr. given Will Barton's possible departure. They develop young talent well and are in sort of limbo until Jamal Murray's health is in order.
27) Brooklyn Nets - SG Chris Duarte, Oregon
28) Philadelphia 76ers - SG Quentin Grimes, Houston
Similar to the Lakers' section, Quentin Grimes' is a shooter and Philly needs shooters. While the transition from Ben Simmons to literally anyone else should add spacing, they need more, especially if Danny Green departs. Grimes is a former top prospect who found his niche after departing from Kansas. He turned himself into one of the best players in college basketball last season and was one of the biggest reasons why Houston was a legitimate title contender. His FT% and defense took major steps forward from his sophomore to junior seasons. Unfortunately, he shot worse from 2PT range despite improving his 3 and TS%. Grimes ceiling is still present but it's hard to be as optimistic on it as some were out of high school.
29) Phoenix Suns - PG/SG Joel Ayayi, Gonzaga
Joel Ayayi would be an incredible backcourt mate to Devin Booker. Ayayi can shoot and defend while also acting as an offensive facilitator. He is likely not a pure scorer in the NBA but he will be opportune and efficient. The growth from his sophomore to junior season is not evident until you notice how his TS% jumped from .591 to .665! Ayayi is a solid pick and he probably should be higher.
30) Utah Jazz - SG/SF Brandon Boston Jr., Kentucky
This is a pure upside pick for a Utah Jazz team that has everything fundamentally necessary to a roster. BJ Boston had a tumultuous rookie season that tanked his would-be lottery stock but it is fair to say that this was another wiry freshman like Ziaire who needs to hit the weight room a tad more. Boston was a top-5 high schooler in his class and that pedigree doesn't just go away after one season. His shooting from the floor was awful and he often looked weak on drives but at least his FT was at 78.5% on 2.6 attempts. This is a worthwhile gamble for Utah.
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