February 19, 2016

RotoBaller's staff rankings and projections for 2016 fantasy baseball first basemen (1B). Tiered MLB first base ranks, expert draft analysis and fantasy baseball advice.

Welcome back to another installment of RotoBaller’s February rankings. Along with yours truly, the panel again consists of Bill Dubiel, Jeff Kahntroff, Brad Johnson, Nick Mariano, Max Petrie, and Harris Yudin. This is the third in a series of four monthly updates to our staff rankings, and that can only mean one thing – we’re milking this for all it’s worth getting closer and closer to the start of the 2016 fantasy baseball season!

I’ve previously offered my thoughts on third base, the outfield, and starting pitching. Today, we’ll talk about first base. Let’s get down to business.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: First Base

Tier One

Paul Goldschmidt

Along with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, Goldy is essentially a consensus top-three selection overall. No mystery as to why; the man is a five-category monster. Manny Machado was the only other player with 30 homers and 20 steals last year, and Goldschmidt also broke triple digits in runs and RBI while finishing fourth in MLB with a .321 batting average and .435 on-base percentage. Most of us will never be as good at anything as this dude is at hitting baseballs.

Tier Two

Miguel Cabrera
Anthony Rizzo
Edwin Encarnacion
Joey Votto
Jose Abreu
Chris Davis

Miggy may have posted his worst counting stats since his rookie year and landed on the disabled list for the first time ever in 2015, but he still hit .338/.440/.534 when he did play. Rizzo and Votto were the only first basemen outside of Goldschmidt to hit 20 homers and steal 10 bases. Encarnacion, Abreu, and Davis kept doing what they do, which is hit a crapload of home runs. Few owners would be upset to come away from their draft with one of these guys as their starter at first base.

Tier Three

Freddie Freeman
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Eric Hosmer

There’s a pretty substantial drop from the previous tier to this one. Not that any of these players are bad, of course, it’s just that the top seven at this position is ridiculous as usual. You know what you’re getting from Freeman and Gonzalez at this point. Fielder bounced back nicely from the neck injury that wiped out most of his 2014 and scared many owners, including me, away from him in drafts last year. Hosmer has alternated good and bad seasons so far in his career. That trend seems unlikely to continue, but we’re still talking about a guy who has never hit 20 homers, scored 100 runs, or knocked in 100 even one time.

Tier Four

Brandon Belt
Albert Pujols
Lucas Duda
Mark Teixeira
Carlos Santana

Pujols and Teixeira are getting a bit long in the tooth and aren’t the slam dunks they used to be. That said, Pujols went deep 40 times last year, and Tex hit 31 bombs despite missing the final third of the season with injury. Duda’s run production was held back by the Mets’ lineup during their anemic first half and he’s firmly established as a liability in batting average at this point, but he’s likely to be the last 30 homer bat on the board at the position. Santana shocked the world by stealing 11 bases last year, but he’s much less interesting for fantasy purposes now that’s lost his catcher eligibility. Like Hosmer, Belt seems to have a reputation that outstrips his actual production to this point.

Tier Five

Kendrys Morales
Adam Lind
Ryan Zimmerman
Byung-Ho Park
Mitch Moreland

After looking absolutely cooked in 2014, Morales had an impressive rebound season with the world champs, outperforming his career averages across the board. Despite his flaws, Lind has averaged 25 homers and 85 RBI in the five seasons when he’s managed to amass at least 500 plate appearances.  Moreland just had the best season of his career, and wasn’t top 10 at the position in any category. Zimmerman has missed over half his team’s games in the last two seasons and seems like strictly a depth option at this point in shallower formats. Park is a wild card, as we wait to see how his power in the KBO translates to the majors. Steamer’s got him pegged for 20 homers in only 385 plate appearances. He’s certainly interesting enough to take a flier.

Tier Six

Matt Adams
Justin Bour
Chris Carter
Pedro Alvarez
Brandon Moss
Chris Colabello
Justin Morneau
Mark Trumbo

Bour is the most intriguing option in this tier, if only because pretty much everyone else is a known quantity by now. Bour more or less came out of nowhere to hit 23 homers after a minor league career that wasn’t terribly impressive. Maybe he’s just another flash in the pan Quad-A type, but he could also be the cheapest 30 homer player in fantasy this season. Oh, sure, Carter and Alvarez will get there too if they make enough trips to the plate, but they’ll also be serious drains on your batting average. Ditto for Trumbo. Colabello’s BABIP last year was about 14 million, but he hit the ball plenty hard, so maybe regression won’t totally destroy him?

Tier Seven

C.J. Cron
Mike Napoli
Ryan Howard
Adam LaRoche
A.J. Reed
Ben Paulsen
Joe Mauer

Man, remember when Joe Mauer was, like…really good? Howard, too. Napoli and LaRoche had some good times, too. I think Ben Paulsen was in Fight Club or something.

Tier Eight

Logan Morrison
Mark Reynolds
Steve Pearce
Yonder Alonso
Mark Canha
Jon Singleton
Justin Smoak
Luis Valbuena
Stephen Vogt

Welp. Strictly deep and AL/NL only league options here. Cron is my starting first baseman in the industry dynasty league I joined this offseason. You're not going to believe this, but my team is unlikely to contend this season. If any of these not-so-esteemed gentlemen are starting at first base for your fake baseball squad, chances are you aren't contending either.

First Base Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

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