2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base (1B) - February Update

Last month, we brought you RotoBaller's preliminary first base fantasy baseball rankings. The February update is here. We'll be releasing all the other positional rankings updates this week, with analysis from all the RotoBaller writers on their favorite risers and fallers at each MLB position.

Make sure to also check out our MLB Fantasy Baseball Rankings blog, along with all of RotoBaller's first base rankings content. 

2015 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

Brad Johnson (Lead MLB Editor)

I've started to edge Albert Pujols up my draft sheet over the last month. We've all heard the variations on the "best shape of my life" story. Pujols had a healthy offseason for the first time since before the 2012 season. Theoretically, a full winter of training will better prepare him for the rigors of a full season. It was also a good sign to see him steal a handful of bases last year. There's no guarantee the 35-year-old can parlay a healthy offseason into a health season, but it's a good start.

Jeff Kahntroff (MLB Writer)

Removing my rankings, Paul Goldschmidt is neck and neck with Miguel Cabrera as the top-ranked first baseman, but I’m not sure why.  I have him fifth.  His three-year average over 162 games is: .295, 29 HR, 102 R, 107 RBI, 16 SB. While he is just 27 and those numbers are excellent, I think he’s in the second tier when comparing stats.  His age is offset by the limited upside of his lineup, while his competitors' lineups have largely improved:

Edwin Encarnacion: .273, 43 HR, 100 R, 120 RBI, 8 SB

Miguel Cabrera: .329, 39 HR, 108 R, 133 RBI, 3 SB

Jose Abreu: .317, 40 HR, 89 Runs, 120 RBI, 3 SB

Goldschmidt fits more appropriately in my second-tier, along with Bautista, Ortiz, and Rizzo:

Jose Bautista: .265, 40 HR, 109 R, 106 RBI, 8 SB

David Ortiz: .294, 38 HR, 91 R, 117 RBI, 1 SB

Tony Rizzo: .264, 29 HR, 85 R, 87 RBI, 6 SB

Josh Leonard (MLB Writer)

Prince Fielder is a tub of lard. There, I said it. Anyone drafting him as a top-10 first baseman needs his head examined. He just came off neck surgery and he is obese. I will never understand why a professional athlete can allow himself to be fat. Yo, Prince, you make like $24M per year. Please spend some of that on salad.

Anyone want to bet me a sandwich that Chris Davis finishes the year as a top 10 1B? He’s a value pick where at his current ranking.  Between Davis, Chris Carter, Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce, there is plenty of power available later on in the draft at 1B.-- it's arguably the deepest infield position in fantasy baseball.
Editor’s Note: Looking for a fantasy baseball site for your year-round commissioner redraft, keeper or dynasty league? Check out Fleaflicker.com and host your league there for free.

Kyle Braver (MLB Writer)

Considering that he sticks out like a sore thumb in my rankings, let's address Prince Fielder. Glowing reports of Fielder's recovery from the neck injury that cost him nearly all of 2014 have helped lift the lumbering first baseman to the eighth overall spot in my rankings, notably ahead of fantasy stalwarts like David Ortiz and Victor Martinez. Why? Three words: youth and dingers.

It's easy to forget, given his... unusual body type, but Fielder is only 30 years old. Moreover, he's proved incredibly durable during his major league career, taking the plate in at least 157 games per season between 2006 and 2013. He's averaged 31 home runs a year since breaking in as a regular, and now will enjoy hitting in Texas, one of the most friendly parks in the major leagues for left-handed power bats. Power is increasingly scarce in the modern game, which only enhances the value of Fielder's skillset. Call it offseason optimism, but I've got a feeling that Fielder's owners are in for a show in 2015.

Harris Yudin (MLB Writer and Editor)

A guy I ranked much better than anyone else did is Michael Morse. He struggles with injuries, but is somewhat underappreciated, despite consistently putting up solid power numbers when healthy. Now in Miami, Morse should be batting behind Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton, so the RBI opportunities will be there. His ISO, wOBA and wRC+ were all well above average in 2014, and in his last full season in 2011, he crushed 31 homers and posted a .247 ISO.

At just 32, given how late he is expected to go or how cheap he could be, Morse is an interesting name to consider on draft day, especially in deep leagues with a CI spot. If healthy, Morse could smack 25 HR and knock in 85 runs. Forgetting rate stats, those numbers could be awfully similar to those of Freddie Freeman, who will absolutely warrant a much higher draft choice.

Justin Berglund (MLB Writer)

My Top 8 has remained in tact. Aside from the Victor Martinez surgery, which should still see him ready for opening day, nothing has changed in the past month to make me rethink my initial rankings. However, I am continuing to sour on one Joey Votto. I originally had him ninth, and have dropped him to 15th. He obviously has his health concerns after missing 100 games last season. Along with that, he has seen three year declines in his BA, BABIP, BB%, OPS, including his almighty On-Base Percentage. I might be wrong with him as he could return to his MVP-caliber now  that he is healthy, I am just not willing to take that chance in 2015.

Kyle Bishop (MLB Writer and Editor)

The closer we get to the season, the more I feel like Joey Votto is being undervalued. He's coming off an injury-plagued season and career lows pretty much across the board, and he's entering his age-32 season. But the man is a career .310/.417/.533 hitter who still calls Great American Ball Park home. Consider that even last year, he was still good enough to post a 128 wRC+. Reports of Votto's demise have been greatly exaggerated, and Roberts is insane to rank him 16th at the position. How you gonna put him below Chris Carter? C'mon, son.

Alex Roberts (RotoBaller Co-Founder)

Well it's official. I've been called out for ranking Joey Votto 16th, and specifically for putting Chris Carter well ahead of Votto.  I need not delve into my Chris Carter man-crush, as I did that sufficiently in our initial January 1B rankings. But I'll happily use this space to make sure none of you fine RotoBaller readers draft Joey Votto in your top 10 1B for 2015, as Mr. Bishop would have you do.

First off, while his 128 wRC+ is certainly elite, it doesn't mean squat for 5x5 fantasy baseball. Votto is one of those ballplayers who is better in real life than fantasy. We care about very few things from our top-10 1B mashers: dingers, driving in runs, batting average and having players behind you who can drive you home.  Let's go through those four items.  Power: in the last four years Votto's totaled 29, 14, 24, and six home runs, from 2011-2014. RBI: 103, 56, 73, 23. BA: .309, .337, .305, .255. Runs: 101, 59, 101, 32. To summarize, Votto lost significant time to injuries in 2012 and 2014, had an elite year in 2011 and a good year in 2013.

In Votto's first four years in the league, his swing percentage sat around 48%. His last four years? 40%. His penchant for taking pitches instead of swinging at the ball has resulted in far fewer homers and RBI, and will severely cap his homer and RBI potential in 2015. While Votto may bat .310 and score 100 runs, he will not return top-10 1B value, barring a serious change in his plate approach. His name appeal and history mean he will be priced way too high on draft day, so leave him for your leaguemates while you sit back and pluck cheaper, more reliable power bats like Chris Carter, Brandon Moss and Chris Davis five rounds later.

Oh, also, Adrian Gonzalez gets no love. Like, no love at all. He's a top 10 1B every year. 290-22-100 in the bank, well worth a top-50 overall pick, and if you want the real, real talk, he could easily be the sixth-best first baseman and outproduce Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Freddie Freeman in 2015. Heard it here.