November 10, 2017

Top 10 potential lineup busts to avoid starting in fantasy football. Justin lists NFL players to consider sitting or benching as Week 10 lineup disappointments.

We're getting closer to the end of the season--we've reached the double-digit weeks now!--which means that the decisions you make become amplified. That can be good if you make some good choices, but it can also come back to bite you if you make some bad ones.

Here at Rotoballer, we want to give you a chance to avoid making those bad decisions. One of my key tenets of fantasy football is this--I'm willing to either play it safe with my lineup or take some big risks, but I'm not willing to play a guy whose numbers + the numbers of the defense he's up against scream SIT SIT SIT, and I'm willing to live with those times I'm wrong, although sometimes it really hurts to be okay with those moments. I lost a game two weeks ago in the Rotoballer Dynasty League because the data all said to sit Jack Doyle and I sat him, but I've also won games because I did bench the players that were trending downwards.

All that is to say this: as the season goes along and you leave players on your bench that blow up, don't panic. If you're winning most weeks, don't radically change your game plan just because you made a bad call and lost an important game. Keep at it. Do what got you this far, unless what got you this far has left you with two wins. Then think about making changes.

Recap of Last Week

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins didn't throw for any touchdowns against the Seahawks, but Marcus Mariota performed a lot better than I expected against the Ravens. Ehh.

Running Back: C.J. Anderson was bad. Frank Gore wasn't efficient, but he ended up with 7.7 points in Standard. Kenyan Drake was good in both the run game and the passing game and finished with 10.4 points--plus his six catches helped PPR owners a good amount.

Wide Receiver: Will Fuller came crashing back down, but I was very wrong about Alshon Jeffery (six catches for 84 yards and a pair of touchdowns) and Rishard Matthews (four catches for 70 yards and a score).

Tight End: Tyler Higbee was as close to a bust as a player with a touchdown can be--just that one catch for eight yards. Then my two-for-one: Darren Fells had one fantasy point and Eric Ebron had three catches for 35 yards.

Alright. Let's look at 10 dudes who will disappoint you this week now!

Top 10 Busts - NFL Week 10

Kirk Cousins (Quarterback, Washington Redskins)

Hey, it's Kirk again! The Vikings are allowing just the 29th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and Cousins is going to continue to suffer from a weak supporting class. I know Cousins is ranked in the top ten in fantasy points so far, but his best games have come against teams in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to QBs.

Philip Rivers (Quarterback, Los Angeles Chargers)

The Jacksonville Jaguars Effect is real. They're allowing, on average, LESS THAN TEN POINTS-PER-GAME TO QUARTERBACKS. Quarterbacks average 0.5 touchdowns-per-game against them. I'm not even going to list any Rivers stats because they don't matter here--the Jaguars defense might, potentially, be susceptible to mobile QBs, but Rivers isn't that. Sit him.

Rob Kelley (Running Back, Washington Redskins)

The Vikings allow the least points to opposing running backs. Rob Kelley isn't a great running back. Washington is going to be down early and probably will look to the air, which is a place where Chris Thompson will take over, leaving Kelley with a limited amount of touches.

Isaiah Crowell (Running Back, Cleveland Browns)

If I did an end of season award ceremony for this column, Crowell would be the MVP. He is still, inexplicably, the Browns starting running back. He found the end zone against a good Vikings defense, but I don't see it happening against a Lions defense that has a possible weakness against backs that can catch. Duke Johnson in PPR this week? Sure! Crowell in any format? Nah.

Ameer Abdullah (Running Back, Detroit Lions)

A pair of fumbles last week? A game against a Browns team that is, somehow still surprisingly even though I've been looking at these numbers weekly, pretty good against the run? Only one game this season with double-digit fantasy points in Standard? Yeah, I'm going to pass.

Will Fuller (Wide Receiver, Houston Texans)

Just in case you weren't convinced to not start him after last week, I'll repeat: Tom Savage is a terrible quarterback and he can not get the ball to Will Fuller down the field. Sit Fuller for the rest of the season unless Houston changes their starting QB.

Jordy Nelson (Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers)

Start your studs, unless that stud has Brett Hundley at quarterback and has a combined five catches for 48 yards over the past two games. Things don't get easier against the Bears (huh? Am I saying this in 2017?), who have been really stingy against wide receivers over the past few games.

Davante Adams (Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers)

And just in case you decide to start the other Packers receiver because he's been slightly better under Hundley, I'll remind you that the Bears last allowed a wide receiver touchdown since Week 4 and that Brett Hundley is the Packers quarterback.

Jason Witten (Tight End, Dallas Cowboys)

Speaking of the MVPs of this column, Jason Witten has been here a lot. I'm not just doing it because I'm from the Houston-area and currently am stuck living in the Dallas-area. I promise! I'm doing it because Witten looks bad from the eye test and the stats test, and because he plays the Falcons this week, who are tough against opposing tight ends.

Austin Hooper (Tight End, Atlanta Falcons)

Let's grab the other side of this game! Hooper has been incredibly inconsistent this season and the Cowboys are allowing just 6.7 points to tight ends per game. He's not the worst option because he has some big-play ability, but he's the kind of risk that I don't advise taking.

More Week 10 Lineup Prep