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Yep, you read that right. Kyle Rudolph, the guy who finished the 2014 season with 24 receptions, 231 yards and two touchdowns will be a top-ten fantasy football tight end in 2015. Rudolph, 25, is now 5 years apart from when he entered the league as a highly-touted tight end out of the University of Notre Dame. At 6’6, 259 he has requisite size to be an effective receiving tight end in football.
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While injuries have plagued Rudolph the past two seasons, allowing him to play just 17 of the last 32 games, he is finally healthy after suffering from a double sports hernia surgery during the 2014 season. As mentioned previously, Rudolph finished last season with horrendous stats as the 38th highest scoring tight end in standard scoring fantasy football leagues. However, for the first two games of the 2014 Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel exclusively targeted veteran wide receiver Greg Jennings, as the two are good friends and had developed a chemistry in their first year with the Vikings in 2013. In the third game of the season, Cassel broke his foot and rookie Teddy Bridgewater was forced under center for the final three quarters of the New Orleans game. Rudolph, following Bridgewater’s debut, was sidelined seven weeks with a double sports hernia surgery before coming back and being placed on the active roster for the final six games of the season, only starting in four.
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Between playing with a quarterback that ignores tight ends, a rookie quarterback, double sports hernia surgery, a new offense, a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner, respectively, it’s easy to see why Rudolph struggled on the stat sheet. It seems crazy now but Rudolph was supposed to be a top-ten tight end last season too.
After Zimmer, the former Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator, was named head coach after the departure of Leslie Frazier, he named Turner the offensive coordinator. Turner jumped ship after one bad year in Cleveland, however the Browns did have success in a certain area that is a harbinger of things to come in Minnesota; Turner helped Jordan Cameron have his breakout year. Also, when Turner was coaching in San Diego he helped transform Antonio Gates from an undrafted free agent into a future Hall of Famer. It’s fair to say Turner, a two-time Super Bowl champion coach and 31-year coaching veteran knows something about tight end production.
While Rudolph himself figures to have a great season, the progression of Bridgewater and the return of former NFL MVP Adrian Peterson should greatly help a healthy Rudolph in 2015. Now that Peterson is back, opposing teams will be forced to put a greater focus on the Vikings running game in 2015, allowing for Rudolph to stretch the field on single coverage.
Onto his Quarterback: Bridgewater is entering his second season and statistically was the 23rd best quarterback in fantasy football in 13 games last year. Re-adjust those numbers for 16 games and Bridgewater becomes the 19th highest scoring quarterback. Look at the final three weeks of the season, when Bridgewater was starting to get his bearings in the NFL (and finally had a receiver show some life) and he was the tenth highest scoring quarterback. Those were last year’s numbers and he will only be better in 2015 given his remarkable maturity for a 22-year old, accuracy and on-field intelligence.
Rudolph’s stock entering this season is at an all-time low, he's being projected on some fantasy sites as the 36th best available tight end in the draft. In 2013 and 2014, Rudolph finished each injury-riddled season as the 36th and 38th highest scoring tight end respectively. However when he played in all 16 games in 2012, Rudolph was the 11th highest scoring tight end in the league. That season he caught nine touchdowns with Christian Ponder as his quarterback, the guy whose career stats read as follows: 38 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, a sub-60% completion percentage, a 14-21-1 record and a passer rating of 75.9 in four season. Years later, Rudolph is the best redzone receiving threat that the Vikings have, so nine touchdowns could happen again.
It’s hard to put a limit to how successful Rudolph can be when he’s healthy and has a capable quarterback throwing to him. In 2015 there are only six tight ends that almost undoubtedly will have a better season than Rudolph. Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten and Jordan Cameron. Outside of those six, Rudolph is the best available tight end for fantasy football in 2015 due to the supporting cast around him, the offense he's in and the talent he has. Lastly, the beauty of drafting Kyle Rudolph onto your fantasy team is he is a massive low cost, low risk sleeper. While the reasons like the injury concerns are legitimate, his lack of production the past two seasons is in no way indicative of his actual performance. Rudolph is being projected behind the likes of Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert, which is completely crazy. Being proactive and talking the projected “36th” best available tight end a couple of rounds before he is projected to be taken will pay off dividends for whoever selects Rudolph.
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