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The Daily Divide: Week Seven DFS Lineup Picks


Daily Divide: Week Seven

Matt and Nathan each offer Week 7 cash game picks for every position, then the other insults or compliments those picks, as warranted. They hope their arguments and debates provide enough information to help people make their own decisions. Nathan probably makes more good points than Matt over the long haul though, so please pay special attention to his thoughts in this piece.

Matt: Due to some technical difficulties we missed Week Six, but are happy to be back. Nathan wanted to rewrite the opening after my horrible Week 5. He earned it.

You can follow the great Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff -- and the just okay Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle. Matt: I hope you’re savoring this moment, Nathan.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Nathan’s DFS Picks for Week Seven

QB: Jameis Winston at WAS
#HOMERALERT. Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers have had 2 weeks to prepare for a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more points in each of its last 4 games. There is also a chance that Winston gets back tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins from injury. With his weapons all on the field and Doug Martin looking like 2012 Martin, this sets up to be the best game of Winston's young career in my opinion. To be clear, this is definitely more of a GPP(guaranteed prize pool/tournament) play/shot in the dark, but if you are going to fade Palmer, this is one way to do it.

StackingVincent Jackson is the guy I'd feel most comfortable stacking with Winston this weekend, but Mike Evans could also work.

Matt: I think I’d rather go Ryan Fitzpatrick if I’m going cheap. I’m not even sure how to respond to this one.

 

RB:Mark Ingram at IND
Mark Ingram has been one of the more impressive backs in fantasy football so far this season. Ingram is the RB3 overall and RB7 in points per game in PPR so far this. Despite his impressive play, Ingram is being price more toward the middle of the pack, rather than the higher tier running backs. Ingram plays the Colts this weekend who have been a plus matchup for running backs as they have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to running back so far this season according to FantasyPros.

Matt: His ability to score fantasy points a number of different ways has really helped raise his weekly floor. Really nice to see Ingram putting it together consistently this season. 

 

WR: Cardinals Wide Receivers vs BAL
What do you get when you put one of the best receiving corps in the NFL against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL? Fantasy points. You get fantasy points. Not only have Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown been quality starts throughout the season, now it looks like Michael Floyd might be getting into a groove with 10+ PPR points in 2 of the last 3 games. My main target here is Larry Fitzgerald because he has been the most consistent this season and I see him having the highest floor and ceiling among the wide receivers this week. John Brown has also provided a solid floor this year as he is currently the WR19 so far this season and has put up 9 PPR points or more in each game this season.

Stacking: I will be stacking Palmer with at least one Cardinals wide receiver in nearly all of my lineups this weekend. I was a nice guy and let Matt have Palmer this week. 

Matt: I would be hesitant to trust Floyd in cash games, but his price is very appealing. Fitzgerald has finished as a top ten WR a third of the time and doesn’t have a finish lower than WR21. Brown’s floor may be lower, though he hasn’t finished lower than WR17 over the last three weeks and I'm not worried about in this matchup. They both make fantastic starts this week. Note: Check on Brown’s hamstring this weekend before lineups lock.

 

TE: Antonio Gates vs OAK
The Oakland Raiders have been #notgood against the tight end this season, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Antonio Gates has been really good since return from suspension, scoring 48 PPR points in two games. 

Stacking: I like Rivers, but Palmer is basically the same price in a more attractive matchup.

Injury update: Gates has missed several practices this week, but has been known to be play well despite missed practices. This is a situation to monitor as the weekend rolls on. If Gates is out, Ladarius Green becomes one of the best values of the week, allowing you to upgrade somewhere else in your lineup.

Matt: Rivers may be a nice Palmer pivot for those looking to differentiate themselves, but if reports are positive I’m all over Gates, regardless. (Pretty sure Nathan only took Gates in retribution for me taking Palmer.)

 

Matt’s DFS Picks for Week Seven

QB: Carson Palmer vs BAL
In the last five weeks Carson Palmer has finished between QB11 and QB17, scoring consistently between 16 and 21 fantasy points. With four of these five finishes coming within two fantasy points of a top eight finish, Palmer has offered that consistent floor in cash lineups on a weekly basis. This weekend he faces a Baltimore secondary giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. They have already surrendered four top seven fantasy finishes to opposing QBs. (Derek Carr: QB4, Andy Dalton: QB2, Josh McCown: QB1, Colin Kaepernick: QB7.) Only Michael Vick and the depressingly struggling Peyton Manning have failed to do well against this unit. Sometimes I get nervous when these DvP plays focus on inconsistent players, but when a highly efficient (64.5% completion percentage on the season) and top performer (top five QB on the season) face a matchup this juicy, I’m very comfortable putting my chips in the pot. Sometimes these situations don’t go as expected, but it would take (a very unlikely) season worst outing to not pay off his middling price on most sites.

Stacking: I’m rolling with a Cardinals stack in every lineup, just like Nathan is. He did a great job of outlining Cardinals WRs in his section above. 

Nathan: You're so chalk. (For some reason while typing this I pictured myself saying this in a "Mean Girls" voice)
Daily Divide Dictionary: A chalk play is a play that most of the fantasy industry says they are playing and it is predicted will have high ownership.

Matt: I only wear pink on Wednesdays in October.

 

RB: Latavius Murray at SDG AND Todd Gurley vs CLE
Todd Gurley is playing as a home favorite, which is an important gauge for DFS RB success. In two games as feature back, Gurley accumulated 314 yards. That is not a typo. He hasn’t scored yet, but with over 50 touches in the last two weeks, that will change sooner than later.

After a RB17 finish in Week One, Latavius Murray went on to grind out back to back top ten RB finishes before suffering an injury in Week Four. Coming off his Week Six bye, Latavius Murray has been fully practicing, which is a great sign.

These two RBs face opponents surrendering the first and second highest YPC rates to opposing RBs. Both opponents are giving up a full rushing TD per game on average, and are in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed per game. Both seemingly healthy now, these RBs deserve consideration for similar reasons this weekend.

Nathan:I like both of these backs this week a lot. Lots of value at running back in DFS this week.

 

WR: Jets Wide Receivers at NE
Through five weeks, Brandon Marshall has four (consecutive) 100+ yard games, and an impressive four top 12 fantasy finishes already. (His lowest finish came in Week Two, when his 7-101-1 line was only good for WR16.) Simply put, he’s been one of the best fantasy WRs on the season thus far. Eric Decker has battled through injuries, but has scored a TD in every game even so. ProFootballFocus is giving the CB/WR matchup edge to Decker in this one, so if the weekend reports on Decker’s status are positive, I’m comfortable firing him up everywhere. (Make sure to check in on Decker’s status, though. If the reports are concerning, I may lean all the more heavily on Marshall.)

Stacking:I’m always nervous about believing in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s upside, but he should have a reasonable floor this week if you’re in need of the salary relief.

Nathan: I like it like that. Marshall and Decker are both solid plays and I agree that I'd be fading Fitzpatrick here and stacking elsewhere.

 

TE: Charles Clay vs at JAX (in London)
In the last month, Charles Clay has finished as TE4, TE3, TE35, and TE8, respectively. The three target Week Five clunker aside, Clay received double digit targets in each of the other last three games. With the receiving corp around Clay pretty beat up, he figures to continue as a target vacuum this weekend. His matchup isn’t great, but he put up a 9-62 line last week in a tougher matchup. I don’t love this play enough to target him, but Clay’s reasonable floor should make him a nice salary relief option. NOTE: Clay plays in the early (to us) London game, and may not be in every slate.

Stacking: Nope. 

Nathan:Neither of us are going Gronk, which means he will go off for 8-160 yards-2 touchdowns. Clay is a solid play where the price fits in well with the rest of the lineup .

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Philip Rivers, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Rishard Matthews, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski

Matt likes: Philip Rivers, Devonta Freeman, Arian Foster, Donte Moncrief, Martavis Bryant, Willie Snead, DeAndre Hopkins, Delanie Walker

 

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