November 10, 2016

Nick Mariano's week ten fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2016 NFL season. Consensus rankings comparison for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks.

Editor's Note: Nick is currently ranked #22 overall on the experts accuracy results. In Week 6 he was ranked #7 overall, and in Week 5 he was ranked #3 overall. His rankings have been among the most accurate in the fantasy football industry. Pretty impressive stuff.

Well, Ryan Tannehill failed to show up against the Jets, and can genuinely not be trusted anywhere. Blake Bortles defied the odds and posted yet another solid effort in the late game, with his 54 rushing yards really pushing him. We were right to rank Todd Gurley as an RB2 outside of the top 10 yet again, seems to be a reliable fade, but Latavius Murray blew up for a hat trick of TDs against Denver. The biggest hit was pushing Michael Thomas way up into WR1 territory, as he outperformed Brandin Cooks and nearly all other WRs in Week 9. Austin Hooper was another worthy recipient of a boost, as he delivered a TE1 performance while Coby Fleener flopped again. Overall, it was a good week.

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Week 10 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

There are a few things working in Ben Roethlisberger’s favor in Week 10. He’ll have another week to get healthy, and he’ll get to play at home where he has historically performed much better as a pro. Last year he had a 16-to-7 TD:INT ratio at home, against a 5-to-9 ratio on the road. So why do I have him at #8 against the #5 consensus? In a nutshell, I need to see that he’s truly healthy before he can be an elite play. That’s it, and that’s enough for me.

Looking for a widely-available QB in Week 10? Jay Cutler’s services are likely available, and I’ve got him at #13 against a #17 thanks to a dream date with Tampa Bay’s generous passing defense. While the Bucs did lose DE Howard Jones for the year last week, their front seven is still very aggressive and stout against the run. They embody the notion of a “funnel” defense, which plays right into Jay Cutler’s hands.

Week 10 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Man, David Johnson is either going to break records or be a huge disappointment with only 80 scoreless rushing yards. He’s #1, there’s no other choice.

As for some deviation, I have Chris Ivory at #18 compared to a #24 consensus ranking, as he really looked good in Nathaniel Hackett’s first game as the Jaguars offensive coordinator. Ivory racked up 107 rushing yards on just 18 carries against the Chiefs (5.94 YPC), and now he gets to tee off against a Houston defense that is great against the pass (7^th in DVOA) and horrid against the run (28^th). Even in a pass-happy offense, that’s a good deal. T.J. Yeldon also gets a bump as the pass-catching RB from #31 to #22.

Matt Forte also gets knocked to #12 from #8, as I’m not trusting the Jets to do much of anything against the Rams in what Vegas easily projects to be the lowest scoring game of the week at 39.5 points. It opened at 42, and has already dropped over two points. This is going to be ugly. The Rams front seven is healthy and firing on all cylinders, and Forte is unlikely to rattle off RB1 numbers in a game where he might have Bryce Petty handing it off to him.

Week 10 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’ve moved Mike Evans to #1 from his consensus #3 ranking, and Alshon Jeffery also gets a bump to #4 from #7. That game could easily turn into a sloppy slugfest, and we know that Tampa Bay’s entire offense goes through Evans – especially with Doug Martin still unlikely to go. Meanwhile Jeffery finally found pay dirt in Jay Cutler’s first game back last week, and should feast on a Bucs’ secondary that just allowed four TDs through the air in Week 9.

Another jumper is J.J. Nelson, who I’ve got at #27 compared to a #33 consensus. His doing well may conflict with David Johnson’s 10 TDs this week, but perhaps Nelson can squeak in one after his strong play earned him a starting role moving forward according to HC Bruce Arians. While Larry Fitzgerald is still Arizona’s #1 WR, Nelson runs more of his routes as a traditional outside receiver and San Francisco ranks dead last against opposing #1 WRs according to DVOA. Fire him up and reap the benefits.

Week 10 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Travis Kelce just gave us one of the funniest moments of 2016 in his calling a penalty with his towel on a ref in Week 9. He also has a good chance at delivering a great game in Week 10 against a Panthers team that has performed poorly against opposing TEs thus far (25^th in DVOA). While we know that Carolina has also been wildly susceptible to WRs, Kansas City really doesn’t utilize them enough to be viable plays. Sadly enough, Alex Smith barely utilizes Kelce enough. This may be a gritty, sloppy game, but it does have a projected point total of 44 right now and Kelce should be KC’s main passing weapon against a defense that can stuff the run and mitigate some of Spencer Ware.

How about Week 10 as a bounceback spot for Martellus Bennett? I’ve got him at #15 against the consensus rank of #19, as Seattle has been great defensively but only 23^rd in DVOA against the TE. While the Seahawks have technically limited opposing TEs to poor fantasy point totals, they’ve barely faced any TEs worth naming. While Rob Gronkowski is a monster and rightfully the #1 consensus TE, I think New England turns to plenty of two-TE sets to attack Seattle’s vulnerability, which pegs Bennett as a high-end TE2.

I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.