Week 10 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

1 year ago by Ben Rolfe

I cannot believe it is Week 10 already! This season has flown by and things in the NFL are starting to settle down. The good teams are really starting to distinguish from bad and the pretenders are falling away a little bit. The same goes for the players in the consistency ratings. The best running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have all risen to the top and the pretenders are falling further down the rankings. Quarterback is a little different due to the nature of the position this year. When players regularly score in the 20s an outlier in the low teens or even close to single digits has a major effect. Even for the best quarterbacks, this can happen if their teams build a big lead early and their offense throttles back somewhat. So while I would use the other positions at face value be sure to take in the whole of the top-20 at quarterback because there are some great players sitting in the high teens.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	243.74	27.08	6.34	20.74	33.43	0.23	142.7
2	Cam Newton	185.92	23.24	4.81	18.43	28.05	0.21	135.52
3	Carson Wentz	128.42	21.4	4.24	17.16	25.65	0.2	129.4
4	Philip Rivers	159.34	19.92	3.92	16	23.84	0.2	121.09
5	Alex Smith	122.58	15.32	2.46	12.86	17.78	0.16	110.78
6	Aaron Rodgers	172.08	21.51	5.76	15.75	27.27	0.27	101.78
7	Russell Wilson	145.44	18.18	4.44	13.74	22.62	0.24	92.62
8	Matt Ryan	196.06	24.51	8.91	15.59	33.42	0.36	91.89
9	Andrew Luck	169.78	21.22	7.27	13.96	28.49	0.34	83.21
10	Tom Brady	168.56	18.73	5.9	12.83	24.63	0.32	78.18
11	Ben Roethlisberger	169.2	21.15	7.88	13.27	29.03	0.37	77.89
12	Kirk Cousins	179.5	19.94	7.51	12.43	27.46	0.38	72.9
13	Deshaun Watson	182.36	20.26	8.44	11.82	28.71	0.42	68.88
14	Jared Goff	188.54	20.95	9.3	11.64	30.25	0.44	68.12
15	Andy Dalton	140.18	17.52	6.19	11.33	23.72	0.35	67.09
16	Ryan Fitzpatrick	142.02	23.67	13.05	10.62	36.72	0.55	66.61
17	Baker Mayfield	105.82	15.12	4.64	10.48	19.76	0.31	64.38
18	Drew Brees	177.94	22.24	11.76	10.48	34	0.53	64.3
19	Matthew Stafford	133.34	16.67	6.17	10.5	22.84	0.37	61.7
20	Eli Manning	116.98	14.62	4.77	9.85	19.39	0.33	59.43
21	Joe Flacco	139.22	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
22	CJ Beathard	80.98	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
23	Mitchell Trubisky	170.16	21.27	12.36	8.91	33.63	0.58	57.86
24	Jimmy Garoppolo	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
25	Dak Prescott	133.1	16.64	7.35	9.29	23.99	0.44	54.31
26	Case Keenum	129.5	14.39	5.63	8.76	20.02	0.39	51.14
27	Blake Bortles	136.98	17.12	9.22	7.9	26.34	0.54	48.92
28	Jameis Winston	68.34	17.09	11.49	5.6	28.57	0.67	42.49
29	Derek Carr	122.02	15.25	8.9	6.35	24.15	0.58	41.39
30	Ryan Tannehill	69.98	14	9.25	4.75	23.25	0.66	35.17

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. I do not feel there is a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. The numbers in the table above pretty much reflect how I feel about most players. Among the top-10 Matt Ryan is perhaps a little lower than you might expect because of his performances in the state of Pennsylvania this season. He is among the hottest quarterbacks in the league right now and an absolute must-start.

The clear anomaly here is Drew Brees. Brees has had a couple of weirdly low scoring games that have damaged his numbers. Part of that is due to having Alvin Kamara and now Mark Ingram in the backfield. Those two are so good they can pile up yards and find the end zone, limiting Brees sometimes. However, if we were to sort this table by average points then Brees would be right near the top.

The horror show and subsequent benching in Chicago has damaged Fitzpatrick's consistency rating. However, he is slinging it right now and it is extremely hard to not use him, especially against a defense which was torched by the Falcons last week.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	257	28.56	5.18	23.38	33.74	0.18	185.96
2	Saquon Barkley	202.6	25.33	5.82	19.51	31.14	0.23	135.57
3	Melvin Gordon	177.8	25.4	6.6	18.8	32	0.26	123.17
4	James White	199.6	22.18	7.42	14.76	29.6	0.33	88.47
5	Christian McCaffrey	167	20.88	6.75	14.12	27.63	0.32	85.39
6	James Conner	206.5	25.81	11.3	14.51	37.12	0.44	84.75
7	Alvin Kamara	214.7	26.84	12.82	14.02	39.65	0.48	83.04
8	Kareem Hunt	199.5	22.17	10.42	11.75	32.59	0.47	69.32
9	Ezekiel Elliott	147.6	18.45	6.92	11.53	25.37	0.37	67.67
10	Joe Mixon	113.4	18.9	7.9	11	26.8	0.42	64.13
11	TJ Yeldon	137	17.13	6.26	10.87	23.38	0.37	64
12	David Johnson	120.2	15.03	5.04	9.98	20.07	0.34	59.8
13	Alex Collins	107.8	11.98	3.44	8.54	15.41	0.29	53.73
14	Marshawn Lynch	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
15	Phillip Lindsay	119.1	13.23	5.39	7.85	18.62	0.41	45.75
16	Kerryon Johnson	97.8	12.23	4.49	7.73	16.72	0.37	45.47
17	Marlon Mack	74.7	18.68	13.19	5.48	31.87	0.71	45.11
18	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
19	Tevin Coleman	116.3	14.54	8.13	6.4	22.67	0.56	40.52
20	Justin Jackson	4.6	2.3	0.14	2.16	2.44	0.06	39.71
21	Adrian Peterson	120.1	15.01	9.21	5.8	24.22	0.61	39.49
22	Jordan Howard	93.6	11.7	5.03	6.67	16.73	0.43	38.89
23	Lamar Miller	96	12	5.51	6.49	17.51	0.46	38.13
24	Austin Ekeler	97.2	12.15	5.84	6.31	17.99	0.48	37.41
25	Tarik Cohen	122.5	15.31	11.07	4.24	26.38	0.72	36.49
26	Ito Smith	64.7	9.24	3.25	5.99	12.49	0.35	35.51
27	Kenyan Drake	122.2	13.58	8.67	4.91	22.25	0.64	34.85
28	Dion Lewis	104.8	13.1	8.1	5	21.2	0.62	34.29
29	Javorius Allen	95.3	10.59	4.83	5.76	15.42	0.46	33.79
30	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
31	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
32	Jalen Richard	82.8	10.35	5.12	5.23	15.47	0.5	31.26
33	Nyheim Hines	95.5	11.94	7.44	4.5	19.38	0.62	31.09
34	Sony Michel	73.3	12.22	7.95	4.26	20.17	0.65	30.98
35	Dalvin Cook	44.4	11.1	6.26	4.84	17.36	0.56	30.79
36	Chris Thompson	66.2	13.24	10.12	3.12	23.36	0.76	30.56
37	Aaron Jones	60.1	10.02	5.07	4.94	15.09	0.51	29.8
38	Royce Freeman	61	8.71	3.64	5.07	12.36	0.42	29.56
39	Theo Riddick	50.4	8.4	3.34	5.06	11.74	0.4	29.51
40	Wendell Smallwood	73	10.43	5.7	4.73	16.13	0.55	29.51
41	Chris Carson	77.7	11.1	7.45	3.65	18.55	0.67	27.64
42	Carlos Hyde	78.2	11.17	7.66	3.52	18.83	0.69	27.47
43	Carlos Hyde	78.2	11.17	7.66	3.52	18.83	0.69	27.47
44	Mark Ingram	44.3	11.08	7.56	3.51	18.64	0.68	27.3
45	Latavius Murray	102.9	11.43	8.34	3.09	19.78	0.73	27.1
46	Isaiah Crowell	105.6	11.73	9.68	2.06	21.41	0.82	25.96
47	Matt Breida	92.4	10.27	7.05	3.22	17.31	0.69	25.23
48	Bilal Powell	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
49	Jamaal Williams	50.4	6.3	2.21	4.09	8.51	0.35	24.22
50	LeSean McCoy	68.3	8.54	5.26	3.28	13.8	0.62	22.4

James White is an elite running back, deal with it. He is among the top-10 in average points per game and consistency. Until he has some bad games he is a must-start. Sadly the T.J. Yeldon train appears to have come off the tracks. With Fournette and Hyde in the backfield, it is likely Yeldon's role will be extremely limited. Do not cut bait just yet but you are going to have to be desperate to start him. Opportunity made him a consistent option, that opportunity is gone.

Lindsay is thriving in Denver this season and has quickly become a must-start running back. It is hard to imagine any of the other two backs preventing him getting significant touches at this stage. Even in a weird situation he still ranks 15th here. This will be an interesting week for Marlon Mack but he had success against a decent run defense in the form of the Bills so I think he can be successful. The Jaguars run defense can be attacked and I am looking forward to seeing how the Colts and Mack do it.

Tevin Coleman demonstrated why he is a major threat last week. He is playing for a contract next season so expect him to try and hit the home run every time he gets the ball. It was also good to see him get involved in the passing game last week. Peterson had a downturn in fortune last week. Losing key guys on the offensive line is tough and the next couple of weeks will be interesting to see if Peterson can still have success.

Dion Lewis is still a long way down these rankings because of early season performance but I am intrigued by what I have seen the last few weeks. This could be a chance for a decent week against his old team. Isaiah Crowell is not having the success I hoped for since the loss of Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire is a name to watch on waivers the next couple of weeks.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Adam Thielen	217.7	24.19	6.01	18.18	30.2	0.25	121.5
2	Julian Edelman	83	16.6	2.91	13.69	19.51	0.18	111.45
3	Antonio Brown	164.4	20.55	4.95	15.6	25.5	0.24	105.88
4	DeAndre Hopkins	198.7	22.08	6.08	16	28.16	0.28	102.28
5	Davante Adams	173	21.63	6.85	14.78	28.47	0.32	89.89
6	AJ Green	156.7	19.59	5.98	13.61	25.56	0.31	83.77
7	Julio Jones	163.3	20.41	6.9	13.51	27.31	0.34	80.81
8	Michael Thomas	190	23.75	12.42	11.33	36.17	0.52	69.16
9	Odell Beckham Jr	155.3	19.41	7.81	11.61	27.22	0.4	67.68
10	Willie Snead	101.1	11.23	2.24	8.99	13.48	0.2	67.48
11	Brandin Cooks	138.9	17.36	6.38	10.98	23.74	0.37	64.63
12	Deandre Carter	4.1	2.05	0.07	1.98	2.12	0.03	61.48
13	Emmanuel Sanders	156.4	17.38	7.05	10.32	24.43	0.41	60.19
14	Keenan Allen	123.4	15.43	5.52	9.9	20.95	0.36	58.5
15	Mike Evans	153.6	19.2	9.84	9.36	29.04	0.51	56.64
16	Robert Woods	154.7	17.19	7.55	9.64	24.74	0.44	56.31
17	Stefon Diggs	150.3	18.79	9.8	8.99	28.59	0.52	54.81
18	JuJu Smith-Schuster	132.2	16.53	7.29	9.23	23.82	0.44	53.98
19	Tyreek Hill	176.5	19.61	11.39	8.22	31	0.58	53.37
20	Golden Tate	119.9	17.13	8.16	8.96	25.29	0.48	53.07
21	Tyler Lockett	108.7	13.59	4.74	8.85	18.32	0.35	52.56
22	Tyler Boyd	142.3	17.79	9.38	8.41	27.16	0.53	51.53
23	Rashad Greene	3.7	1.85	0.07	1.78	1.92	0.04	50.25
24	Alshon Jeffery	90.1	18.02	10.41	7.61	28.43	0.58	49.21
25	Cooper Kupp	126.2	18.03	10.78	7.25	28.81	0.6	48.18
26	TY Hilton	85.3	14.22	6.1	8.11	20.32	0.43	47.33
27	DeSean Jackson	125.5	15.69	8.53	7.16	24.22	0.54	44.54
28	Will Fuller	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
29	Jarvis Landry	129.8	14.42	7.5	6.92	21.92	0.52	42.15
30	Devin Funchess	103.5	12.94	6.24	6.7	19.18	0.48	39.75
31	Geronimo Allison	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
32	Michael Crabtree	104.2	11.58	5.1	6.48	16.67	0.44	37.89
33	Allen Robinson	69.5	11.58	5.17	6.41	16.76	0.45	37.51
34	Sterling Shepard	109.2	13.65	7.91	5.74	21.56	0.58	37.2
35	Marvin Jones	108.3	13.54	7.83	5.71	21.36	0.58	36.96
36	Kenny Golladay	104.1	13.01	7.07	5.94	20.08	0.54	36.96
37	Anthony Miller	64.6	9.23	3.13	6.1	12.36	0.34	36.41
38	Dede Westbrook	96	12	5.94	6.06	17.94	0.49	36.26
39	Demaryius Thomas	104.3	11.59	5.5	6.09	17.09	0.47	35.99
40	John Brown	118.7	13.19	7.74	5.45	20.93	0.59	35.67
41	Josh Gordon	85.3	12.19	6.44	5.74	18.63	0.53	35.23
42	Calvin Ridley	124.2	15.53	12.35	3.18	27.87	0.8	35.04
43	Chris Godwin	93	11.63	5.81	5.81	17.44	0.5	34.87
44	Curtis Samuel	46.8	11.7	5.92	5.78	17.62	0.51	34.81
45	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
46	Nelson Agholor	88.4	11.05	5.31	5.74	16.36	0.48	34.04
47	Ryan Grant	59	9.83	4.07	5.76	13.9	0.41	33.59
48	Christian Kirk	88.2	11.03	5.47	5.55	16.5	0.5	33.24
49	Tyrell Williams	98.6	12.33	7.67	4.65	20	0.62	32.12
50	Sammy Watkins	116.7	12.97	9.38	3.59	22.35	0.72	30.89

Willie Snead continues to be the consistent guy who doesn't really score double-digit points. He is a solid option as a wide receiver three or a flex play but the upside is limited. Ignoring Carter there is nothing abnormal about the rest of the top-20 and all are guys you are starting without too much thought.

Two situations I am interested to watch in the coming weeks are Detroit and Philadelphia. Do Jones and Golladay see a boost in consistency with Tate gone? Equally will Jeffrey, Agholor or Tate himself suffer from inconsistent performance now? We may not get the answer this week as both teams are matching up with tough defenses.

Josh Gordon is demonstrating what we knew about his talent before this season in New England. He may not rank high in these ratings but he has become a must-start with Brady. Josh Brown is the tear your hair out receiver in Baltimore. When you bench him he will do great. When you play him he will do nothing. He has a lot of talent but that issue means he is stuck in the realm of matchup-dependent plays.

Sammy Watkins is another talented guy in a tough situation. His offense is better than Brown's but there are so many weapons his production will be inconsistent. This week may not be a good one as they could get up big quickly against the Cardinals.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	145.4	18.18	6.24	11.94	24.41	0.34	71.13
2	Travis Kelce	161.1	17.9	8.74	9.16	26.64	0.49	54.55
3	Eric Ebron	121.4	15.18	7.19	7.98	22.37	0.47	47.19
4	George Kittle	131.2	14.58	7.13	7.44	21.71	0.49	44.37
5	OJ Howard	109.2	13.65	6.86	6.79	20.51	0.5	40.82
6	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
7	Greg Olsen	60.8	12.16	5.61	6.55	17.77	0.46	38.51
8	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
9	Jordan Reed	75	9.38	3.43	5.95	12.8	0.37	35.01
10	Kyle Rudolph	83.9	9.32	3.68	5.65	13	0.39	32.96
11	Jimmy Graham	86.5	10.81	5.32	5.49	16.13	0.49	32.78
12	Jack Doyle	36	12	7.55	4.45	19.55	0.63	31.07
13	Trey Burton	98.1	12.26	8.28	3.98	20.55	0.68	30.42
14	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
15	Rob Gronkowski	79.8	11.4	6.99	4.41	18.39	0.61	30
16	Jared Cook	105.4	13.18	10.76	2.42	23.93	0.82	29.31
17	Ben Watson	67.2	9.6	5.04	4.56	14.64	0.53	27.88
18	Austin Hooper	85.2	10.65	6.96	3.69	17.61	0.65	26.95
19	Nick O'Leary	20.2	10.1	6.79	3.31	16.89	0.67	25.13
20	Geoff Swaim	45.5	7.58	3.4	4.18	10.98	0.45	24.5
21	David Njoku	84	9.33	6.09	3.24	15.43	0.65	23.63
22	Vance McDonald	66.6	9.51	6.52	2.99	16.04	0.69	23.4
23	Mark Andrews	57.4	6.38	2.65	3.73	9.03	0.42	21.71
24	Chris Herndon IV	59.3	8.47	5.67	2.8	14.14	0.67	21.13
25	Evan Engram	45.5	9.1	7.25	1.85	16.35	0.8	20.52
26	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
27	Dallas Goedert	55.8	7.97	7.46	0.51	15.43	0.94	16.49
28	Erik Swoope	33.3	6.66	4.83	1.83	11.49	0.73	15.83
29	Cameron Brate	45.9	6.56	4.69	1.87	11.25	0.71	15.73
30	Ricky Seals-Jones	48.6	6.08	3.82	2.25	9.9	0.63	15.73

Really you are gambling week to week on anyone outside of Ertz, Kelce and Kittle. Those seem to be the three must-starts and then everyone else is matchup dependent. Ebron sits high in these rankings but with the return of Jack Doyle he has seen his target share drop and I expect he will drop in these rankings. Njoku and Engram both have the talent to be higher on this list but their targets are too inconsistent for you to rely on them weekly.