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Week 10 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


I cannot believe it is Week 10 already! This season has flown by and things in the NFL are starting to settle down. The good teams are really starting to distinguish from bad and the pretenders are falling away a little bit. The same goes for the players in the consistency ratings. The best running backs, wide receivers and tight ends have all risen to the top and the pretenders are falling further down the rankings. Quarterback is a little different due to the nature of the position this year. When players regularly score in the 20s an outlier in the low teens or even close to single digits has a major effect. Even for the best quarterbacks, this can happen if their teams build a big lead early and their offense throttles back somewhat. So while I would use the other positions at face value be sure to take in the whole of the top-20 at quarterback because there are some great players sitting in the high teens.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 243.74 27.08 6.34 20.74 33.43 0.23 142.7
2 Cam Newton 185.92 23.24 4.81 18.43 28.05 0.21 135.52
3 Carson Wentz 128.42 21.4 4.24 17.16 25.65 0.2 129.4
4 Philip Rivers 159.34 19.92 3.92 16 23.84 0.2 121.09
5 Alex Smith 122.58 15.32 2.46 12.86 17.78 0.16 110.78
6 Aaron Rodgers 172.08 21.51 5.76 15.75 27.27 0.27 101.78
7 Russell Wilson 145.44 18.18 4.44 13.74 22.62 0.24 92.62
8 Matt Ryan 196.06 24.51 8.91 15.59 33.42 0.36 91.89
9 Andrew Luck 169.78 21.22 7.27 13.96 28.49 0.34 83.21
10 Tom Brady 168.56 18.73 5.9 12.83 24.63 0.32 78.18
11 Ben Roethlisberger 169.2 21.15 7.88 13.27 29.03 0.37 77.89
12 Kirk Cousins 179.5 19.94 7.51 12.43 27.46 0.38 72.9
13 Deshaun Watson 182.36 20.26 8.44 11.82 28.71 0.42 68.88
14 Jared Goff 188.54 20.95 9.3 11.64 30.25 0.44 68.12
15 Andy Dalton 140.18 17.52 6.19 11.33 23.72 0.35 67.09
16 Ryan Fitzpatrick 142.02 23.67 13.05 10.62 36.72 0.55 66.61
17 Baker Mayfield 105.82 15.12 4.64 10.48 19.76 0.31 64.38
18 Drew Brees 177.94 22.24 11.76 10.48 34 0.53 64.3
19 Matthew Stafford 133.34 16.67 6.17 10.5 22.84 0.37 61.7
20 Eli Manning 116.98 14.62 4.77 9.85 19.39 0.33 59.43
21 Joe Flacco 139.22 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
22 CJ Beathard 80.98 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
23 Mitchell Trubisky 170.16 21.27 12.36 8.91 33.63 0.58 57.86
24 Jimmy Garoppolo 46.02 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
25 Dak Prescott 133.1 16.64 7.35 9.29 23.99 0.44 54.31
26 Case Keenum 129.5 14.39 5.63 8.76 20.02 0.39 51.14
27 Blake Bortles 136.98 17.12 9.22 7.9 26.34 0.54 48.92
28 Jameis Winston 68.34 17.09 11.49 5.6 28.57 0.67 42.49
29 Derek Carr 122.02 15.25 8.9 6.35 24.15 0.58 41.39
30 Ryan Tannehill 69.98 14 9.25 4.75 23.25 0.66 35.17

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. I do not feel there is a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. The numbers in the table above pretty much reflect how I feel about most players. Among the top-10 Matt Ryan is perhaps a little lower than you might expect because of his performances in the state of Pennsylvania this season. He is among the hottest quarterbacks in the league right now and an absolute must-start.

The clear anomaly here is Drew Brees. Brees has had a couple of weirdly low scoring games that have damaged his numbers. Part of that is due to having Alvin Kamara and now Mark Ingram in the backfield. Those two are so good they can pile up yards and find the end zone, limiting Brees sometimes. However, if we were to sort this table by average points then Brees would be right near the top.

The horror show and subsequent benching in Chicago has damaged Fitzpatrick's consistency rating. However, he is slinging it right now and it is extremely hard to not use him, especially against a defense which was torched by the Falcons last week.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Todd Gurley 257 28.56 5.18 23.38 33.74 0.18 185.96
2 Saquon Barkley 202.6 25.33 5.82 19.51 31.14 0.23 135.57
3 Melvin Gordon 177.8 25.4 6.6 18.8 32 0.26 123.17
4 James White 199.6 22.18 7.42 14.76 29.6 0.33 88.47
5 Christian McCaffrey 167 20.88 6.75 14.12 27.63 0.32 85.39
6 James Conner 206.5 25.81 11.3 14.51 37.12 0.44 84.75
7 Alvin Kamara 214.7 26.84 12.82 14.02 39.65 0.48 83.04
8 Kareem Hunt 199.5 22.17 10.42 11.75 32.59 0.47 69.32
9 Ezekiel Elliott 147.6 18.45 6.92 11.53 25.37 0.37 67.67
10 Joe Mixon 113.4 18.9 7.9 11 26.8 0.42 64.13
11 TJ Yeldon 137 17.13 6.26 10.87 23.38 0.37 64
12 David Johnson 120.2 15.03 5.04 9.98 20.07 0.34 59.8
13 Alex Collins 107.8 11.98 3.44 8.54 15.41 0.29 53.73
14 Marshawn Lynch 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Phillip Lindsay 119.1 13.23 5.39 7.85 18.62 0.41 45.75
16 Kerryon Johnson 97.8 12.23 4.49 7.73 16.72 0.37 45.47
17 Marlon Mack 74.7 18.68 13.19 5.48 31.87 0.71 45.11
18 Devonta Freeman 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
19 Tevin Coleman 116.3 14.54 8.13 6.4 22.67 0.56 40.52
20 Justin Jackson 4.6 2.3 0.14 2.16 2.44 0.06 39.71
21 Adrian Peterson 120.1 15.01 9.21 5.8 24.22 0.61 39.49
22 Jordan Howard 93.6 11.7 5.03 6.67 16.73 0.43 38.89
23 Lamar Miller 96 12 5.51 6.49 17.51 0.46 38.13
24 Austin Ekeler 97.2 12.15 5.84 6.31 17.99 0.48 37.41
25 Tarik Cohen 122.5 15.31 11.07 4.24 26.38 0.72 36.49
26 Ito Smith 64.7 9.24 3.25 5.99 12.49 0.35 35.51
27 Kenyan Drake 122.2 13.58 8.67 4.91 22.25 0.64 34.85
28 Dion Lewis 104.8 13.1 8.1 5 21.2 0.62 34.29
29 Javorius Allen 95.3 10.59 4.83 5.76 15.42 0.46 33.79
30 Giovani Bernard 55.3 13.83 10.74 3.09 24.56 0.78 31.63
31 Jay Ajayi 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
32 Jalen Richard 82.8 10.35 5.12 5.23 15.47 0.5 31.26
33 Nyheim Hines 95.5 11.94 7.44 4.5 19.38 0.62 31.09
34 Sony Michel 73.3 12.22 7.95 4.26 20.17 0.65 30.98
35 Dalvin Cook 44.4 11.1 6.26 4.84 17.36 0.56 30.79
36 Chris Thompson 66.2 13.24 10.12 3.12 23.36 0.76 30.56
37 Aaron Jones 60.1 10.02 5.07 4.94 15.09 0.51 29.8
38 Royce Freeman 61 8.71 3.64 5.07 12.36 0.42 29.56
39 Theo Riddick 50.4 8.4 3.34 5.06 11.74 0.4 29.51
40 Wendell Smallwood 73 10.43 5.7 4.73 16.13 0.55 29.51
41 Chris Carson 77.7 11.1 7.45 3.65 18.55 0.67 27.64
42 Carlos Hyde 78.2 11.17 7.66 3.52 18.83 0.69 27.47
43 Carlos Hyde 78.2 11.17 7.66 3.52 18.83 0.69 27.47
44 Mark Ingram 44.3 11.08 7.56 3.51 18.64 0.68 27.3
45 Latavius Murray 102.9 11.43 8.34 3.09 19.78 0.73 27.1
46 Isaiah Crowell 105.6 11.73 9.68 2.06 21.41 0.82 25.96
47 Matt Breida 92.4 10.27 7.05 3.22 17.31 0.69 25.23
48 Bilal Powell 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
49 Jamaal Williams 50.4 6.3 2.21 4.09 8.51 0.35 24.22
50 LeSean McCoy 68.3 8.54 5.26 3.28 13.8 0.62 22.4

James White is an elite running back, deal with it. He is among the top-10 in average points per game and consistency. Until he has some bad games he is a must-start. Sadly the T.J. Yeldon train appears to have come off the tracks. With Fournette and Hyde in the backfield, it is likely Yeldon's role will be extremely limited. Do not cut bait just yet but you are going to have to be desperate to start him. Opportunity made him a consistent option, that opportunity is gone.

Lindsay is thriving in Denver this season and has quickly become a must-start running back. It is hard to imagine any of the other two backs preventing him getting significant touches at this stage. Even in a weird situation he still ranks 15th here. This will be an interesting week for Marlon Mack but he had success against a decent run defense in the form of the Bills so I think he can be successful. The Jaguars run defense can be attacked and I am looking forward to seeing how the Colts and Mack do it.

Tevin Coleman demonstrated why he is a major threat last week. He is playing for a contract next season so expect him to try and hit the home run every time he gets the ball. It was also good to see him get involved in the passing game last week. Peterson had a downturn in fortune last week. Losing key guys on the offensive line is tough and the next couple of weeks will be interesting to see if Peterson can still have success.

Dion Lewis is still a long way down these rankings because of early season performance but I am intrigued by what I have seen the last few weeks. This could be a chance for a decent week against his old team. Isaiah Crowell is not having the success I hoped for since the loss of Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire is a name to watch on waivers the next couple of weeks.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Adam Thielen 217.7 24.19 6.01 18.18 30.2 0.25 121.5
2 Julian Edelman 83 16.6 2.91 13.69 19.51 0.18 111.45
3 Antonio Brown 164.4 20.55 4.95 15.6 25.5 0.24 105.88
4 DeAndre Hopkins 198.7 22.08 6.08 16 28.16 0.28 102.28
5 Davante Adams 173 21.63 6.85 14.78 28.47 0.32 89.89
6 AJ Green 156.7 19.59 5.98 13.61 25.56 0.31 83.77
7 Julio Jones 163.3 20.41 6.9 13.51 27.31 0.34 80.81
8 Michael Thomas 190 23.75 12.42 11.33 36.17 0.52 69.16
9 Odell Beckham Jr 155.3 19.41 7.81 11.61 27.22 0.4 67.68
10 Willie Snead 101.1 11.23 2.24 8.99 13.48 0.2 67.48
11 Brandin Cooks 138.9 17.36 6.38 10.98 23.74 0.37 64.63
12 Deandre Carter 4.1 2.05 0.07 1.98 2.12 0.03 61.48
13 Emmanuel Sanders 156.4 17.38 7.05 10.32 24.43 0.41 60.19
14 Keenan Allen 123.4 15.43 5.52 9.9 20.95 0.36 58.5
15 Mike Evans 153.6 19.2 9.84 9.36 29.04 0.51 56.64
16 Robert Woods 154.7 17.19 7.55 9.64 24.74 0.44 56.31
17 Stefon Diggs 150.3 18.79 9.8 8.99 28.59 0.52 54.81
18 JuJu Smith-Schuster 132.2 16.53 7.29 9.23 23.82 0.44 53.98
19 Tyreek Hill 176.5 19.61 11.39 8.22 31 0.58 53.37
20 Golden Tate 119.9 17.13 8.16 8.96 25.29 0.48 53.07
21 Tyler Lockett 108.7 13.59 4.74 8.85 18.32 0.35 52.56
22 Tyler Boyd 142.3 17.79 9.38 8.41 27.16 0.53 51.53
23 Rashad Greene 3.7 1.85 0.07 1.78 1.92 0.04 50.25
24 Alshon Jeffery 90.1 18.02 10.41 7.61 28.43 0.58 49.21
25 Cooper Kupp 126.2 18.03 10.78 7.25 28.81 0.6 48.18
26 TY Hilton 85.3 14.22 6.1 8.11 20.32 0.43 47.33
27 DeSean Jackson 125.5 15.69 8.53 7.16 24.22 0.54 44.54
28 Will Fuller 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
29 Jarvis Landry 129.8 14.42 7.5 6.92 21.92 0.52 42.15
30 Devin Funchess 103.5 12.94 6.24 6.7 19.18 0.48 39.75
31 Geronimo Allison 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
32 Michael Crabtree 104.2 11.58 5.1 6.48 16.67 0.44 37.89
33 Allen Robinson 69.5 11.58 5.17 6.41 16.76 0.45 37.51
34 Sterling Shepard 109.2 13.65 7.91 5.74 21.56 0.58 37.2
35 Marvin Jones 108.3 13.54 7.83 5.71 21.36 0.58 36.96
36 Kenny Golladay 104.1 13.01 7.07 5.94 20.08 0.54 36.96
37 Anthony Miller 64.6 9.23 3.13 6.1 12.36 0.34 36.41
38 Dede Westbrook 96 12 5.94 6.06 17.94 0.49 36.26
39 Demaryius Thomas 104.3 11.59 5.5 6.09 17.09 0.47 35.99
40 John Brown 118.7 13.19 7.74 5.45 20.93 0.59 35.67
41 Josh Gordon 85.3 12.19 6.44 5.74 18.63 0.53 35.23
42 Calvin Ridley 124.2 15.53 12.35 3.18 27.87 0.8 35.04
43 Chris Godwin 93 11.63 5.81 5.81 17.44 0.5 34.87
44 Curtis Samuel 46.8 11.7 5.92 5.78 17.62 0.51 34.81
45 Cameron Meredith 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
46 Nelson Agholor 88.4 11.05 5.31 5.74 16.36 0.48 34.04
47 Ryan Grant 59 9.83 4.07 5.76 13.9 0.41 33.59
48 Christian Kirk 88.2 11.03 5.47 5.55 16.5 0.5 33.24
49 Tyrell Williams 98.6 12.33 7.67 4.65 20 0.62 32.12
50 Sammy Watkins 116.7 12.97 9.38 3.59 22.35 0.72 30.89

Willie Snead continues to be the consistent guy who doesn't really score double-digit points. He is a solid option as a wide receiver three or a flex play but the upside is limited. Ignoring Carter there is nothing abnormal about the rest of the top-20 and all are guys you are starting without too much thought.

Two situations I am interested to watch in the coming weeks are Detroit and Philadelphia. Do Jones and Golladay see a boost in consistency with Tate gone? Equally will Jeffrey, Agholor or Tate himself suffer from inconsistent performance now? We may not get the answer this week as both teams are matching up with tough defenses.

Josh Gordon is demonstrating what we knew about his talent before this season in New England. He may not rank high in these ratings but he has become a must-start with Brady. Josh Brown is the tear your hair out receiver in Baltimore. When you bench him he will do great. When you play him he will do nothing. He has a lot of talent but that issue means he is stuck in the realm of matchup-dependent plays.

Sammy Watkins is another talented guy in a tough situation. His offense is better than Brown's but there are so many weapons his production will be inconsistent. This week may not be a good one as they could get up big quickly against the Cardinals.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Zach Ertz 145.4 18.18 6.24 11.94 24.41 0.34 71.13
2 Travis Kelce 161.1 17.9 8.74 9.16 26.64 0.49 54.55
3 Eric Ebron 121.4 15.18 7.19 7.98 22.37 0.47 47.19
4 George Kittle 131.2 14.58 7.13 7.44 21.71 0.49 44.37
5 OJ Howard 109.2 13.65 6.86 6.79 20.51 0.5 40.82
6 Tyler Conklin 3.3 1.65 0.07 1.58 1.72 0.04 40.15
7 Greg Olsen 60.8 12.16 5.61 6.55 17.77 0.46 38.51
8 Hakeem Valles 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
9 Jordan Reed 75 9.38 3.43 5.95 12.8 0.37 35.01
10 Kyle Rudolph 83.9 9.32 3.68 5.65 13 0.39 32.96
11 Jimmy Graham 86.5 10.81 5.32 5.49 16.13 0.49 32.78
12 Jack Doyle 36 12 7.55 4.45 19.55 0.63 31.07
13 Trey Burton 98.1 12.26 8.28 3.98 20.55 0.68 30.42
14 Tyler Eifert 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
15 Rob Gronkowski 79.8 11.4 6.99 4.41 18.39 0.61 30
16 Jared Cook 105.4 13.18 10.76 2.42 23.93 0.82 29.31
17 Ben Watson 67.2 9.6 5.04 4.56 14.64 0.53 27.88
18 Austin Hooper 85.2 10.65 6.96 3.69 17.61 0.65 26.95
19 Nick O'Leary 20.2 10.1 6.79 3.31 16.89 0.67 25.13
20 Geoff Swaim 45.5 7.58 3.4 4.18 10.98 0.45 24.5
21 David Njoku 84 9.33 6.09 3.24 15.43 0.65 23.63
22 Vance McDonald 66.6 9.51 6.52 2.99 16.04 0.69 23.4
23 Mark Andrews 57.4 6.38 2.65 3.73 9.03 0.42 21.71
24 Chris Herndon IV 59.3 8.47 5.67 2.8 14.14 0.67 21.13
25 Evan Engram 45.5 9.1 7.25 1.85 16.35 0.8 20.52
26 Will Dissly 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
27 Dallas Goedert 55.8 7.97 7.46 0.51 15.43 0.94 16.49
28 Erik Swoope 33.3 6.66 4.83 1.83 11.49 0.73 15.83
29 Cameron Brate 45.9 6.56 4.69 1.87 11.25 0.71 15.73
30 Ricky Seals-Jones 48.6 6.08 3.82 2.25 9.9 0.63 15.73

Really you are gambling week to week on anyone outside of Ertz, Kelce and Kittle. Those seem to be the three must-starts and then everyone else is matchup dependent. Ebron sits high in these rankings but with the return of Jack Doyle he has seen his target share drop and I expect he will drop in these rankings. Njoku and Engram both have the talent to be higher on this list but their targets are too inconsistent for you to rely on them weekly.

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