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Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for 10/20/19. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
We split the card in Week 6 and overall it was a solid week to bet on the NFL. New Orleans was able to hang on and win outright, while the Broncos not only shut out the Titans in the first half but didn't allow a mark the entire game. Compared to the week prior, last week was a breathe of fresh air.
- Week 6 Picks: 2-2 (50%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 12-11 (52%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet. Let's get to my favorite NFL week 7 bets:
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Houston at Indianapolis (-1)
O/U: 47
The Texans took down the Chiefs last week by outscoring them 28-7 after the first quarter. Deshaun Watson wasn’t spectacular, but there were quite a few scoring opportunities left on the board by Will Fuller. Somehow, Carlos Hyde continues to be serviceable thanks to high volume. Add in that DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, and this offense has left a lot on the table.
The Colts are coming off their bye week, which allows Marlon Mack to get completely healthy. Despite taking down Kansas City in Week 5, neither Mack, nor T.Y. Hilton really stood out. Jacoby Brissett has solidified himself as a capable starting quarterback, but also one that won't completely take over a game. However, if his weapons show up, this offense is top 10 in the league.
Both teams most recent games involve beating the Chiefs, which speaks strongly about the defenses more than anything. However, with Indy fresh off the bye week, and Houston putting up 84 points in their past two games, both teams should be ready to hit on all cylinders. I look at it as both teams are readily capable of scoring 24 points each.
Pick: Over 47
Minnesota at Detroit (+1.5)
O/U: 44
The Vikings just took down the Eagles, and they did so through the air. These are things you didn't expect to say just three weeks ago. Kirk Cousins threw enough touchdowns (four) to make the general public think he's good, while Stefon Diggs came out of the doghouse to catch three of them. Defensively, Minnesota is tough, allowing just 15.3 points per game over the last three games. However, it's all up front as Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes haven't been great this season.
Detroit got hosed last week, but they covered so all is well, unless you're a Lions fan. On another note, who doesn't love a good revenge game? Matthew Stafford coming back home after throwing for just 265 yards and no touchdowns, while Kerryon Johnson rushed for just 34 yards is what you should be targeting. These two guys alone are sure to bounce back.
Since the beginning of 2018, the Lions are 5-2 against the spread coming off a loss, while the Vikings are just 3-7-1 ATS after a win. Keep in mind that Cousins isn't good, so he'll likely come back down to earth this week. Add in that the Lions and their entire fan base have an "us against the world" mantra going right now, so I'm looking for them to come out swinging on Sunday.
Pick: Detroit + 1.5
Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)
O/U: 49
Philadelphia was starting to gain some ground and then they got sent packing by Minnesota. Miles Sanders is starting to take on more of a role in the offense, which should benefit the unit. However, with a road matchup this week, Carson Wentz’s home/road splits seem to point that the 26-year-old will be hindered in Jerry’s World.
The Cowboys have come crashing down to earth after a 3-0 start. The losses to New Orleans and Green Bay were understandable, but a Week 6 loss to the Jets is inexplicable. Of course, losing Amari Cooper (quad) was a tough break for the passing game, and there’s a chance he’ll miss this one too. Alternatively, Ezekiel Elliott has been hit-or-miss, which has also been the story of Dak Prescott’s career.
Sunday Night Football unders are hot this year, as the total in all six games has gone under. Combine the chance of Cooper missing for Dallas, and Wentz struggling on the road and these two will be feeling each other out early. I'm going to follow the SNF under trend and expect these divisional rivals to slug it out.
Pick: Under 49
New England at New York Jets (+9.5)
O/U: 44
The Jets did themselves quite a few favors by downing the Cowboys last week. Apparently Sam Darnold is what keeps the Jets franchise intact, but when the Patriots come to town, all bets are off. New England hasn’t had an issue scoring early through the first six games, averaging 15 points in the first half. Coincidentally, the Jets didn't seem to have any problems either, once Darnold returned last week, as they dropped 21 points in the first half.
New England has a history of scoring early and then hitting the brakes. While their defense is currently the best in the league, the Jets offense gets an immediate boost with Darnold ready to play. Some expect New York to give New England a solid effort, and while I think that’s bogus, I do think it’s going to be an active first half.
Pick: 1st Half Over 21.5
