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Top College Prospects - Dynasty League Scouting (Bowl Season - Week 2 Edition)


The first week of bowls is past and it was a mixed bag of results. Some games were competitive while others turned into blowouts quickly.

This week continues the matchups of non-traditional power programs, but also features some of the better offenses in the country.

Today, we'll take a look at three prospects, including one top pick and two underclassmen who have yet to declare.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Scouting The Wide Receivers

Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota

Quick Lane Bowl - vs. Georgia Tech (12/26)

Playing in the relative anonymity that is Minnesota,  Tyler Johnson continues to be one of the most underrated WRs in all of college football despite having some of the best production. The former three-star WR has turned into a star in coach P.J. Fleck's offense.

Tyler Johnson G Rec Yds Avg TD MS Receiving Yards MS Receiving TDs Dominator
2016 7 14 141 10.1 1 0.06 0.11 0.09
2017 10 35 677 19.3 7 0.45 0.73 0.59
2018 12 74 1112 15 10 0.43 0.56 0.49
Career 29 123 1930 15.7 18 0.30 0.49 0.40

In Fleck's two seasons as the head coach, Johnson has become the focal point of the passing attack which led to his breakout season in 2017 as the age of 19. His 0.59 dominator rating, while playing just 10 games, ranked third in the country. And while his dominator rating and market shares all regressed slightly, he's still among the leaders in college football in total usage.  He ranks third in MS yards, first in MS touchdowns, and second in dominator.

Current speculation is indicating that Johnson isn't going to forego his fourth year with Minnesota, but if he were to declare for the draft, he'd be an intriguing mid-round selection. Johnson's production would put him in a similar category that D.J. Moore was placed, last year. An exciting player on a bad offense. Should Johnson declare for the draft, his draft process will be critical, particularly considering the depth of the WR class. The best case scenario would involve a strong combine that led to him becoming a second round selection. The worst case scenario could see him go late on Day 3. If he's a second round pick, look for Johnson to be a mid-first round rookie pick.

 

Anthony Johnson, WR Buffalo

Dollar General Bowl - vs. Troy (12/22)

After finding himself academically ineligible coming out of high school, Johnson spent two seasons in junior college. Then, after nearly joining Marshall, he ended up with Buffalo and turned into one of the most productive WRs in the country. This matchup against Troy and the Senior Bowl are good opportunities for Johnson to elevate his profile, nationally.

Anthony Johnson Rec Yds YPR TD MS Yards MS TDs Dominator
2017 76 1356 17.8 14 0.39 0.58 0.49
2018 52 944 18.2 11 0.33 0.4 0.36
Career 76 1356 17.8 14 0.36 0.48 0.42

After finishing fifth in the country in dominator rating in 2017, he was always a candidate for some regression, but in spite of missing two games, he maintained a market share of yards over 30 percent and a dominator that would have qualified as a breakout had he not broken out the prior season. In addition to having a career market share over the 29 percent threshold, Johnson also has a career yardage efficiency over 17.0 yards per carry which indicates potential to be a field stretcher.

Level of competition and age are the two red flags for Johnson. Not only did Johnson spend multiple seasons in junior college, but when he finally made the jump up to FBS, he joined a lower level conference. And at the age of 23.9, he's among the oldest prospects in the draft class. Barring a poor NFL Draft process, Johnson is a likely top two day selection in the NFL Draft with late-first round upside. He appears to be a mid-first round rookie pick likely after the N'Kkeal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, A.J. Brown, and D.K. Metcalf tier. Depending on your league's preferences, he could be a target for players looking to trade down from the top spots.

 

Scouting A Runningback

Alexander Mattison, RB Boise State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl - vs. Boston College (12/26)

The matchup between Boston College and Boise State will feature two of the better RBs in college football. A.J. Dillon isn't eligible for the draft until next year so scouts' eyes will be locked on Mattison.

Alexander Mattison G Att Rush Yds Avg TD Rec Rec. Yds Avg TD
2016 11 67 328 4.9 4 5 54 10.8 0
2017 14 212 1086 5.1 12 28 284 10.1 1
2018 13 302 1415 4.7 17 27 173 6.4 0
Career 581 2829 4.9 33 60 511 8.5 1

From a rushing efficiency perspective, Mattison isn't particularly exciting. But from a usage standpoint, Mattison has proven capable of being a versatile workhorse. While he lacks a season with better than 6.0 yards per carry, he has two seasons with more than 200 carries and more than 2 receptions per game. Overall, Mattison's production doesn't stand out as a top prospect, but he's shown capable of being a complete back.

As of today, Mattison hasn't declared for the NFL draft and while there's reason for him to make the jump to the NFL now, it's somewhat expected that he will return to Boise State for his final year of eligibility. As with most RBs, athleticism is a big indication of potential success in the NFL so it's difficult to fully evaluate Mattison based on production alone. However, ESPN's high school recruiting profile lists his 40 time at 4.76 seconds. While high school testing results may not represent current results, it helps provide a baseline expectation and with a 4.76 second 40, his athleticism is unlikely to elevate his draft stock. Should he be drafted as a day 2 selection, Mattison is a valuable second round rookie pick. If he falls to day three, he could be a good third round rookie pick.

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