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Top College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week 3 (9/14/19)


The college football season is in full swing. While most teams spend the early weeks crossing off the cupcake games on their schedule, things are about to get hot-and-heavy with truly meaningful football. 

We're here to dive into the numbers, teams, and picks setup for this weekend in college football. I could honestly find a way to bet on every game but instead I scour the large slate of college football games and pick which ones present the most value for you.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet. 

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Air Force at Colorado (-3.5)

O/U: 58.5

Air Force had a Week 2 bye after downing Colgate 48-7 to open the season. In typical triple-option offense fashion, the Falcons threw one pass and had 17 different players receive a carry in the opener, with four different players scoring a touchdown. DJ Hammond III scored three times on just five carries, while Kadin Remsberg got a little more work taking nine carries for 62 yards with a pair of scores. However, the cog in the offense is converted senior fullback Taven Birdow who is still learning the position after leading the team with nine rushes for 80 yards in the opener. Air Force got a lot of work in against an FCS opponent and was able to let a lot of guys play, which isn’t necessarily a good thing heading into a matchup with a Power 5 school.

Colorado is 2-0 and riding high off an overtime win against Nebraska, after climbing back from a 17-0 halftime deficit. The offense led by quarterback Steven Montez got hot in the second half and was able to pressure the Cornhuskers who were on the road. However, the best part of this offense is that star receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. hasn’t even been utilized yet. The senior has just eight receptions for 79 yards and a score. Getting him going puts this Colorado offense over the top. First-year skipper Mel Tucker got his team motivated at halftime, and they seem to have turned a corner.

Under coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force is 32-35 against the spread on the road, but I expect the team’s Week 1 blowout will actually hurt the team. Colorado is coming off of two huge rivalry wins to open the season, and they’re looking to go 3-0 heading into conference play. Despite Air Force’s style of play being unique and often difficult to defend, Colorado is far superior on talent and it will show on the line score.

Pick: Colorado -3.5

 

Iowa at Iowa State (-2.5)

O/U: 44.5

Iowa is fresh off a 30-0 shutout against Rutgers as the last test before the battle for the Cy-Hawk trophy. The Hawkeyes come in 2-0 and ranked 19th but we see this every year where eIowa starts off strong and climbs their way up the rankings. Nate Stanley has been as good as advertised throwing for 488 yards and 6 touchdowns. The rushing attack is what makes the Hawkeyes so dangerous, as Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young create a solid duo that each averaged 4.7 yards per carry last year. Defensively, they’re a bit banged up in the secondary but this is an Iowa defense that finished 11th in scoring defense a season ago.

College Gameday is on it’s way to Ames, Iowa for the first time ever and the Iowa State campus is buzzing. On the field, there’s not much to look at for the Cyclones just yet, as they’ve only played FCS Northern Iowa and won 29-26. Quarterback Brock Purdy was solid as a freshman, leading the Iowa State to an 8-5 record and is back with a better understanding of the offense. Of course they’re without David Montgomery in the backfield, so Sheldon Croney and Johnnie Lang handle the duties.

Iowa might have some injuries, but over the last five meetings between these two in Ames, the Hawkeyes are 3-1-1 ATS. Overall, they’re 2-0-1 in the last three and 6-3-1 over the last 10 contests. While this rivalry game is always close, Iowa is the better program and the head-to-head numbers back it up. Iowa State will be too pumped up with Gameday being in town, and Hawkeyes should be able to take home the Cy-Hawk by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Iowa -2.5

 

Florida State at Virginia (-7)

O/U: 58

Florida State has fallen on even harder times since Willie Taggart took the reins. They lost to a solid Boise State team 36-31 in Week 1 before needing overtime to knock off the powerhouse that is UL-Monroe, 45-44. The Seminoles haven't had a problem scoring points through two games, but their defense has been abysmal. 648 yards allowed and 80 points against two group of five schools should make you cringe. Quarterback James Blackman has been "ok" but never good enough to really wow you, while running back Cam Akers has gotten all he can handle in 51 carries for 309 yards. Their struggles all come down to their defense, and Taggart has openly called criticized the inability to get the job done.

Virginia is again an underrated team in the ACC. They're 2-0 and just entered the ranks at No. 25. Bryce Perkins is an electric playmaker who is dangerous on the ground and through the air. His two interceptions against William and Mary last week ended the longest active streak for pass attempts without an interception, so taking care of the football typically hasn't been a problem for the senior. Note that coach Bronco Mendenhall said Perkins has a brace on his left knee, so there is a chance he sees some limitations in the run game. Freshman running back Mike Hollins took over mid-game in Week 2 and Mendenhall emphasized that he will be getting more work. Look for the Cavs to really emphasize the running game in this inter-divisional ACC matchup. 

Both teams have had no issues scoring points through the first two weeks, but conference games always bring out a team's best. Over the past 10 meetings between these two teams, the over hasn't hit one time, according to Odsshark.com. With Perkins dealing with a knee injury, Virginia is going to look to establish the run and keep Florida state's up-tempo offense off the field. FSU's defense is going to answer their coaches call for more. This total opened at 56.5 and has already risen to 58, but we're going to fade the public here because I trust numbers more than the public.

Pick: Under 58

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