RADIO
Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for April 29th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you are playing NHL DFS congrats on being one of those hardcore NHL fans! This is a challenging slate with the playoffs set and a majority of the seeding figured out, it isn't going to be clear on who is in or out but that's what makes it fun.
This was supposed to be the last day of the regular season, but instead, it is for 30 of 32 teams in the league (Winnipeg and Seattle play on Sunday). This is probably going to be the hardest slate of the year, and I would recommend playing very lightly if you choose to play. We should get some decent DFS slates during the first round of the playoffs, so this isn't our absolute last chance to get some hockey action!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Friday, April 29th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSIf you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/29/22
We have a 15-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern staggered to starting at 10:30 pm Eastern. With this being essentially the second to last day of the regular season and all of the playoff teams locked up, these slates can be difficult to play. It is best to check the line rushes on Twitter about 20-30 minutes before the game locks to make sure the players you like are in the game! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup pre-lock and getting zeros from guys resting up for the playoffs or shutting it down early in the regular season.
NHL DFS Slate Context for 4/29/22
This slate is very different than most slates and because of that, the context of the slate is so vital.
Tampa Bay and Boston are separated by one point. Whoever finishes with more points will play Toronto in the first round while whoever loses will play Carolina as a wildcard team.
Pittsburgh and Washington are separated by one point as well. Whoever finishes with more points faces the Rangers in the first round while whoever loses will play Flordia as a wildcard team.
Minnesota and St. Louis will play each other for sure in the first round. Minnesota is ahead of Saint Louis by two points. If they finish tied, Saint Louis would win the tiebreaker and get home ice against Minnesota. Minnesota has one of the best home records in the league, I have to imagine this is important to them.
Dallas and Nashville are wildcard teams and are separated by one point. Whoever finishes with less points will play the Colorado Avalanche while whoever has more will play Calgary. I do not know if the teams have a strong preference as both teams are pretty tough. I would rank this one probably the least important battle.
In addition to team points, individual players are approaching milestones. This may or may not be important to them but could be a factor as to whether they play or not.
Steven Stamkos - 39 goals
Aleksander Barkov - 39 goals, 88 points (sat out last night)
Mika Zibanejad - 29 goals (sat out on Wednesday night)
J.T. Miller - 98 points
Nathan MacKinnon - 88 points (sat out last night)
What do I do with this information? I create my skater pool from these choices above and create lineups. With many players likely resting, there will be values that open up when we get line rushes at morning skate and in pregame and find out who is starting and who isn't. We are going to have a sub-$4k winger on a top-line getting a ton of minutes of ice time but I do not want to speculate on what that will be until we get confirmation.
NHL DFS Goalies
This is typically where I would list a slew of goalies to play on the slate. My general advice is in cash games to play the cheapest goalie that is favored. My favorite choice is Casey DeSmith/Louis Domingue (PIT): $8,100 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel. The Penguins are the strongest favorite on the slate, at home, against a weak opponent (Columbus) in a meaningful game for Pittsburgh.
Other heavy favorites are: Florida, Nashville, Dallas, Tampa Bay, and those respective goalies are all rosterable on this slate too.
NHL DFS Forwards
Typically this section is a list of picks I like at varying price points across centers and wingers. Because of rest and everything, I feel like if I make a comprehensive list, over half the players could very well either sit out or just not be that motivated to play. Instead what I will say to do is check Twitter for morning skate updates and line rushes. If you cannot check Twitter, DailyFaceOff is another good resource to figure out who is playing and on what line.
I am interested in the top six skaters (line 1 and line 2) from Tampa Bay, Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville. I also am interested in the milestone players if they are active: Steven Stamkos, Aleksander Barkov, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, and Nathan MacKinnon.
There will be the cheap value that opens up and become 3x-4x value due to being underpriced for the slate given the context.
NHL DFS Defensemen
A similar deal with the skaters here. It's hard to know who will be active and who will not be active on this slate. If active, my favorite spend-ups on the slate are Roman Josi, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Kris Letang, John Carlson, and Dougie Hamilton. These are guys with offensive upside that are on power plays and can have a ceiling game.
My favorite value and punt plays at Defensemen are Travis Hamonic, Jacob Middleton, David Savard, Alec Martinez, Jonas Brodin, and Adam Larsson.
Generally, my strategy with defensemen is to either correlate with a forward power play stack, spend up for upside as a one-off, or to go as far down as I can go and roster one or two for close to the minimum price.
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
If you play like I do, single entry and three max primarily, my advice is to eliminate most of the player pool. There is the list of teams and players playing for something. I am only going to roster my stacks from that universe. My one-offs will either be that too-good-to-be-true $3K misprice with someone on the main stack, or guys who are chasing milestones.
My favorite stack at the moment is: Pittsburgh 1/PP1. Columbus is No. 2 in shots allowed and Pittsburgh is No. 7 in shots on goal.
My main advice is to be up on the news, line rushes, and respond to teams resting players. This time of year can be challenging but also provide a larger edge if you are up on what the teams are doing!
If you want more specific picks based on confirmed lineups, hit me up at @Mark_Kieffer on Twitter and I will help you hone in. Right now it is too early. Generally in the season, I could make my picks now and only a couple are not in the lineup. This time of year? It could be so many.
