Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 17


Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 17! I skipped week 16 due to the shortened week, but we now have over a full week of data since the All-Star break. Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise holds particular importance for fantasy value. Understanding strikeout trends and the stats behind them can help you sort through all the noise and determine which pitchers are legit and which pitchers should be avoided.

The players in this article were chosen using RotoBaller’s K% Risers and Fallers premium Tool. This tool identifies players who are surging and falling in strikeout percentage over the last 30 days. The goal of this tool is to help you find pitchers who are showing improving or declining K%.

We are now into the second half of the season, but there is still plenty of time to make important buy or sell moves before the fantasy playoffs begin. Hopefully, this article can help you out with your rotation moves!

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

Strikeout Rate Risers

All stats current as of Sunday, July 21

 

Chris Archer - Pittsburgh Pirates

Season K%: 26.7%, Last 30 Days: 34.3%

Our first K rate riser made this list in week 15 and has bumped his K rate even higher since. Chris Archer has been a reliable workhorse with high strikeout upside but has also shown a lack of command and an average ERA. His numbers have improved slightly since I last wrote about him but he still owns a poor 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season. His 34.3% K rate over the past 30 days, however, is a high-end mark, so can he provide fantasy value?

The issue is that Archer's last six starts haven't been that much better overall than his season numbers. His K rate has been top-notch, but it has come with a 4.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 11.4% walk rate. However, there are several positive signs from his last six starts. For one, his SIERA over those starts has been a much-better 3.80, indicating that he has pitched better than ERA indicates. Further, his .292 BABIP has been in line with his .299 career mark, which further indicates to me that his SIERA is legitimate.

Archer has always had the strikeout upside, but his command has limited his fantasy value this season. He has pitched better lately, though, and if he can continue to trend in a positive direction, he could be a nice buy-low fantasy option. I wouldn't want to give up too much for him despite his name but would jump at the right offer. 

 

Joe Musgrove - Pittsburgh Pirates

Season K%: 21.2%, Last 30 Days: 28.2%

Our second K rate riser is a teammate of Archer and was a later-round sleeper coming into the season. Joe Musgrove has put up average numbers to this point, allowing a 4.08 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 21.2% K rate. However, he has been great over his last six starts, owning a sterling 2.20 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 28.2% K rate. Is Musgrove a player to own down the home stretch? 

The first thing that stands out is Musgrove's impressive slider. The pitch has been his best swing-and-miss option this season (19.2% swinging-strike rate) and he has been throwing it more lately then he has on the season. Consequently, 17 of his 37 strikeouts (46%) from the last six games have come from the pitch.

The second thing that stands out has been his improved batted-ball profile over the last six games. Musgrove's BABIP (.280) and SIERA (3.56) are both lower than his season marks of .292 and 4.45, indicating that he has been allowing better contact. He has allowed hard contact during this time (46.5%) but has kept the ball on the ground (43%).

Musgrove presents an intriguing middle-of-the-rotation fantasy option given his overall potential upside. He has shown recently that he can command his pitches and get strikeouts without allowing damaging contact. He has a lower ceiling but higher floor than his teammate Archer and is also worth looking into as a buy-low candidate at this time.

 

Strikeout Rate Fallers

All stats current as of Sunday, July 21

 

Jake Odorizzi - Minnesota Twins

Season K%: 25.3%, Last 30 Days: 16%

Our first K rate faller has had a great season to this point, posting a 3.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 25.3% K rate. However, Jake Odorizzi has stumbled lately, posting a bloated 6.28 ERA with a pedestrian 16% K rate over his last six starts. I called him a valuable fantasy asset earlier in the season, but is this still the case?

The main thing that stands out over Odorizzi's last six starts has been his lack of command. His 1.53 WHIP has affected all aspects of his game; his BABIP (.289), walk rate (9.5%), and HR/9 rate (2.51) have all suffered, leading to his poor ERA. Consequently, he has only racked up more than three strikeouts twice in that period. His 5.31 SIERA also supports that he has lacked the control he has had the rest of the season.

Odorizzi still has a lot going for him this season. He is having a career season and, for the most part, as had solid control, high strikeout numbers, and an above-average batted-ball profile. The Twins have been competitive this season as well, improving his fantasy value. Every pitcher goes through rough patches, so I wouldn't worry about Odorizzi for the rest of the season.

 

Jose Berrios - Minnesota Twins

Season K%: 21.8%, Last 30 Days: 14.8%

Our second K rate faller is a teammate of Odorizzi who is more well-known as being a high-end fantasy option. Jose Berrios has had a great season to this point, earning himself an All-Star spot with a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. However, his K rate over the past 30 days has fallen to a pedestrian 14.8%. Is this something that fantasy owners need to worry about? 

There are some interesting signs in his underlying stats. Berrios has pitched quite well in his last five starts, compiling a 3.30 ERA. However, his WHIP over that time was a poor 1.43 and his SIERA was an even worse 5.52. The underlying metrics conflict with his ERA, but his overall results have been good. The decline in K rate could be attributed to a lack of control, but he has never been much of a strikeout pitcher to begin with, so this is not all that alarming.

Like Odorizzi, I would not be too concerned with Berrios, especially given his overall results. He is a strong pitcher and will hopefully be able to find his command again as we move through the second half.

K-Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top strikeout rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium K-Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This tool will soon be active once we have a large enough sample size in the season to be considered reliable.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

Week 10 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

We got a good one on Monday night folks. Both for the NFC West division and, more importantly, for fantasy. Two of the top teams in the NFL matchup at Levi's Stadium. We can finally find out if the 49ers are for real, or if they were just beating up on bad teams all season.... Read More


Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 11 Lightning Round

With 10 weeks down and only a few more weeks of the fantasy regular season to go, your vision for the playoffs should be coming into focus. The Giants, Packers, Seahawks and Titans are on bye -- with the Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings in Week 12 to round out the weekly vacations. To help... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

Did you survive the terrible, no good, very bad six-team bye week? If so, welcome to the other side, when roster building gets slightly easier going forward. If not, I'm sorry, but you still have time to get things back on the right path. Let's talk about some wide receivers who might be able to... Read More


Week 11 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

If your fantasy football squad is still in the playoff hunt heading into Week 11, then congratulations on not being the Pat Shurmur or Freddie Kitchens of your league. Fantasy football players will have to live without New York’s Evan Engram, Green Bay’s Jimmy Graham and Tennessee’s Jonnu Smith as their teams are on bye.... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 11

We've got plenty to unpack at the quarterback position following an exciting Week 10. While no major injuries occurred in game, the revelation of Matthew Stafford's back injury was quite a surprise and left some owners scrambling just before lineups locked. So the year of the backup continued this week, as 16 of the 32... Read More


Week 10 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


NFL Matchup Ratings Tool - Weekly Player Projections

  If you see the red "Upgrade" button below, then you are not a Premium subscriber, or have not yet logged in. Learn more about our NFL Matchup Ratings and projections system.   NFL Matchup Ratings - Weekly Lineup Projections FLEX RB WR TE QB DEF K ** click column headers to sort table Player... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 10 Matthew Stafford has been ruled out with fractured bones in his back. Patrick Mahomes will make his return in... Read More


Week 10 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 10... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 10 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 10 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 10 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: LeSean McCoy is a healthy scratch for Week 10. Matthew Stafford has been ruled out with fractured bones in his back. Patrick Mahomes will make his return in... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 10

Welcome to our Week 10 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 10 Wide Receiver / Cornerback Matchups To Target in Week 10

In Week 9, the Seahawks defeated the Buccaneers 40-34 and, as expected, provided some offensive fireworks. The high-scoring contest resulted in Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and D.K. Metcalf all finishing in the top-three of fantasy scoring at the wide receiver position. Tyreek Hill proved to be too fast for the Vikings secondary, finishing as the... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 10

Welcome to Week 10, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More